🧾 1,000 Trades In 31 Days

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Trump made more than 1,000 stock trades in a single month.

That's roughly 48 trades every trading day in June, according to a disclosure from the U.S. Office of Government Ethics.

The total value: somewhere between $78.1M and $263.1M.

Somewhere, because these filings report ranges instead of actual numbers. Precision is optional when you're the President.

Big June buys included Berkshire Hathaway $BRK.B ( ▼ 0.21% ), Visa $V ( ▲ 1.45% ), Mastercard $MA ( ▲ 1.18% ), Palantir $PLTR ( ▲ 3.44% ) and Cintas $CTAS ( ▲ 0.13% ). Coinbase $COIN ( ▲ 8.2% ) and $HD ( ▲ 0.34% ) Home Depot showed up too.

The single largest move was a sale: between $5M and $25M of the Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF $VIG ( ▲ 0.69% ) on June 22.

Berkshire got a $1M to $5M buy on June 18, then a smaller sale six days later. Meta got the same treatment backwards, with a $1M to $5M sale on June 18 followed by smaller buys later in the month.

Buy it, sell it, buy it again. Very zen.

This is the one people are squinting at, and the dates are why.

June 3: bought between $1,001 and $15,000. June 16: sold between $15,001 and $50,000. June 18: sold between $500,000 and $1M.

Then on June 23 and June 24, back in as a buyer.

Those final purchases landed after the U.S. and Iran agreed to a peace deal on June 14. A defence-adjacent software company, traded around a geopolitical event created by the guy whose name is on the account.

Their position is that no conflict exists because nobody in the family touches the portfolio.

The accounts are discretionary, run through computer-based model portfolios that automatically copy recognised indexes like the Schwab 1000. Eric Trump has described the assets as sitting in a blind trust.

So the official story is that an algorithm placed 1,000 trades in 31 days and coincidentally kept circling the same handful of headline stocks.

Index-tracking models do rebalance constantly, so that explanation isn't impossible. It's just doing a lot of heavy lifting.

June was a slow month by his standards. In 2025 he made more than 21,000 trades worth $600M to $1.86B, sometimes buying and selling the same security on the same day.

Political disclosures are one of the few free datasets showing what powerful people hold. They're also weeks late and wrapped in ranges wide enough to park a bus in.

Useful for spotting themes: payments rails, defence software, boring dividend ETFs. Useless for timing anything, because by the time you read it, the trade is 60 days cold.

The thing worth watching is whether disclosure rules tighten. Right now "blind trust" and "1,000 trades a month" can coexist in the same filing without anyone having to explain how. That only changes if Congress forces exact figures instead of ranges.

Until then, you're reading a receipt with the numbers smudged.

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A basket of six stocks is up 29% this year.

That's 13 percentage points ahead of the equal-weight S&P 500, and building it required zero stock picking.

Goldman Sachs just writes down the names that hedge funds and mutual funds both love, then holds them. That's the whole strategy.

Here's who made the cut 👇

Goldman runs two lists: a Hedge Fund VIP basket and a Mutual Fund Overweight basket. The overlap gets called the "shared favorites."

Six names sit in both heading into Q3:

Capital One, SpaceX and Thermo Fisher are new to the club this quarter. Marvell Technology $MRVL ( ▼ 5.57% ) got voted off the island.

The list is built from 991 hedge funds holding $5.4T of gross equity positions and 504 large-cap active mutual funds running $4.6T.

Round it up and you're looking at roughly $10 trillion of institutional positioning, bigger than the economies of Japan and Germany combined.

Which matters because these two crowds usually can't agree on lunch. They're still split on AI stocks.

Both did stampede into Financials $XLF ( ▲ 0.93% ) in Q2, with sector tilts hitting the highest level in Goldman's historical data.

So when $10T of money that disagrees about everything else lands on the same six tickers, that's a signal worth a look.

Then you check the price.

The median shared favorite trades at 25x forward earnings. The median S&P 500 company trades at 19x.

You're paying roughly a third more for the comfort of knowing the pros are in there with you.

The ride isn't smooth either. Since 2013 the basket has averaged a 17% annual return with a 22% standard deviation.

In plain English? The average year looks great, and almost no year is actually average.

And what’s the takeaway? The overlap has been a genuinely productive hunting ground. It's beaten the hedge-fund-only basket and the mutual-fund-only basket, not just the index.

But crowding cuts both ways. When everyone already owns the same six names, most of the buying has happened. The exit door gets narrow when someone big decides to leave.

Worth watching whether Capital One, SpaceX and Thermo Fisher are still on this list in three months. The names that drop out tend to drop out loudly.

Ray Dalio just put a clock on the next US debt crisis: three years, give or take two.

That was Friday, in a LinkedIn post, from the guy who founded Bridgewater and wrote an entire book called How Countries Go Broke. So the man has form.

His argument is the one from that book. Interest payments keep climbing, investor demand for bonds keeps sagging, and eventually the central bank prints to fill the gap and the currency takes the hit.

Unless there are serious structural policy changes, he says. Which, you know. Good luck.

The national debt just topped $40 trillion. That number has stopped meaning anything to normal humans, so here's the version that does:

That last one is the scary bit. Short-term debt is a mortgage that resets every year, and you don't get to pick the rate.

He's not subtle about the hedge. Underweight bonds $TLT ( ▼ 0.35% ), $IEF ( ▼ 0.19% ), $ZROZ ( ▼ 0.67% ) and hold 10% to 15% of a portfolio in gold $GLD ( ▲ 1.95% ), plus what he calls "a bit" of bitcoin.

His reasoning: "I expect non-government-produced monies like gold and bitcoin to do relatively well."

What he’s really saying? When governments can conjure more of their own money, own the stuff they can't conjure.

And it isn't a US-only problem. He flags the UK, China and Japan as facing the same fiscal squeeze. Everyone's balance sheet is on fire, they're just at different stages of pretending it's a candle.

And the market didn’t wait for the memo.

News flash for anyone who thinks this is a 2029 problem. Gold and bitcoin are already ripping this past week.

The trigger was a surprise Treasury move under Secretary Scott Bessent to double long-term bond buybacks, which sent "debasement trade" chatter straight back into every group chat on the internet.

Gold is tracking its best month since September 1999. The last time gold had a month like this, people were stockpiling tinned food for Y2K.

Bitcoin is on pace for its strongest weekly rally in over three years.

So the timeline Dalio is describing as three-ish years away? Price is already voting on it.

Nobody can time a sovereign debt crisis, including Dalio, which is why his estimate has a two-year error bar in both directions.

But the useful signal isn't the date. It's that the "hard money" trade has stopped being a fringe position and started being a mainstream portfolio question.

Worth knowing where you stand on it before the next headline forces the issue.