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In today’s post:
💰 $116B Unlock Hits Aug. 6
⚡ One Sentence. $66K Bitcoin.
🕵️ The Debt Nobody Can See
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💰 $116B Unlock Hits Aug. 6
911.5 million shares are about to hit the market. Worth up to $116 billion.
That's SpaceX $SPCX ( ▲ 3.08% ) insiders getting the keys to the vault on Aug. 6, right after earnings.
And that's just phase one.
🔓 The Unlock Schedule
SpaceX went with a staggered lock-up, and the numbers get silly fast.
Today's tradable float: roughly 639 million shares
Aug. 6: about 911.5 million become eligible
Hundreds of millions more could unlock instantly if the stock hits a post-IPO performance target
By early December: more than 5.3 billion shares could be trading
That's the float going up more than 8x in four months. Imagine your local pub suddenly serving 8x the pints. Something's going to spill.
🐻 The Shorts Already Showed Up
Roughly 30% of currently tradable shares are sold short, per S3 Partners.
Thirty percent. That’s a pretty strong conviction.
The bet is simple: more supply plus insiders finally allowed to cash out equals a stock that struggles to hold its ground.
They've had a decent run so far. SpaceX is down about 37% from its mid-June high, hit by the broad AI selloff and a Starship launch scrub over an engine problem.
🧠 What It Means For You
Two forces pulling opposite directions here.
More supply usually means more selling pressure, especially when early investors are sitting on gains from a company valued around $400 billion in a private deal a year ago, before the xAI acquisition juiced the combined valuation.
But a bigger float also means better liquidity and room for institutions to build real positions. Thin floats cut both ways.
One thing worth noting: Elon Musk controls about 60% of outstanding shares and isn't selling. He's on a longer lock-up and won't be eligible until more than a year after the June IPO. The biggest holder stays put.
SpaceX after Aug. 6?
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This business just raised its full-year revenue forecast by €6 billion halfway through the year. Not a nudge. A €36–40B outlook rewritten to €43–45B, implying roughly 35% growth at a scale where 35% shouldn't be possible.
The stock is already up nearly 62% this year. Which is exactly why most investors will assume they've missed it. (We called it way earlier than this btw)
Here's what they're missing: a second growth engine that just became half the business. And it's not the segment everyone's watching. The mechanics behind it mean customers have to keep buying even if demand flattens.
We ran the numbers on what happens in this company's worst year. It still grows earnings meaningfully.
But there's a catch, and we're not burying it. The company is committing to a 30% capacity expansion — with another 30% under review — for demand it admits it can't fully see yet. It also just stopped publishing the one metric that gave investors early warning for two decades. And it trades at a 351% premium to its sector.
There's a date in 2027 that could force every analyst on Wall Street to rebuild their model overnight. Most people don't have it on their calendar yet.
In today's Premium deep dive:
The segment shift that changes this from a cyclical story to a compounding one
Our full earnings maths — including the conservative case nobody's pricing in
The three signals that would flip us from Strong Buy to sell
Why losing one disclosure makes the next slowdown harder to see coming
⚡ One Sentence. $66K Bitcoin.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Clarity Act is at the "1-yard line," and crypto markets did what crypto markets do: went vertical on a vibe.
Bessent urged Congress to pass the bill before they head off for recess, per Bloomberg.
🏈 The Scoreboard
Bitcoin climbed 2.08% to $66,559 by Tuesday afternoon. Ethereum added 1% to $1,922. Dogecoin, ever the loyal soldier, was up 1.62% to $0.073.
The coins were the boring part. Crypto stocks went full 🫡
Cipher Digital +18.01% to $24.24
Coinbase +11.70% to $179.20
Riot Platforms +8.64% to $21.62
Robinhood +8.58% to $107.80
MARA Holdings +8.10% to $12.62
Circle +7.90% to $70.62
Hut 8 +7.81% to $108.81
CleanSpark +7.66% to $15.53
Bullish, Figure Technology, Bakkt, IREN, Gemini and Strategy all tagged along for gains between 3.67% and 6.83%.
Notice the pattern? The closer a company sits to US regulation, the harder it ripped. Coinbase and Robinhood live and die by American rulebooks. Bitcoin itself does not.
🧠 What It Means For You
Nothing has actually passed yet. A 1-yard line is still not a touchdown, and Congress has fumbled from closer.
This move is pricing in a bill, not a law. Which means the risk cuts both ways: if Congress leaves for recess without a vote, everything that popped today has a very obvious reason to unpop.
Congress leaves for recess without a Clarity Act vote. What happens to crypto stocks?
🕵️ The Debt Nobody Can See
Big Tech is carrying $1.65 trillion in debt you can't see on the balance sheet.
That's more than the debt they actually report. And it's roughly 8x higher than four years ago.
A Nikkei study added up the off-balance-sheet obligations of Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Oracle. The number came out at $1.65T, against $1.35T of actual reported debt.
So the invisible pile is bigger than the visible one.
Long-term lease agreements. GPUs. Data centers that don't exist yet but are already spoken for.
These deals can run into the tens of billions each, and they sit outside the balance sheet until the concrete sets.
The AI buildout is being financed with promises. Promises don't show up in the debt column.
🔮 Oracle Went Full Stargate
Oracle's hidden debt hit $273.3B, a 30-fold jump in four years.
Most of that traces back to Stargate, its data center project with OpenAI.
Thirty-fold. In four years. That looks like a company doing a trust fall with the future of AI demand to me.
📊 Meta Wins The Leaderboard Nobody Wants
Nikkei pegged Meta's off-balance-sheet debt at $420B, almost triple its on-record debt.
Its Louisiana data center joint venture with Blue Owl Capital was announced in 2025 at a $27B development cost.
Meta has since said the total expected investment is over $50B. The budget nearly doubled before the thing is finished.
🧠 What It Means For Your Money
Microsoft, Alphabet, and Amazon have disclosed roughly $1.45T in backlogs for cloud and other businesses as of the end of March.
Backlogs are the other side of the coin. Committed revenue against committed spending.
The bet works if AI demand shows up on schedule. If it arrives late, those lease payments don't care.
Worth knowing that when you screen these names on debt-to-equity, you're looking at the $1.35T figure. Not the $1.65T one.
Is Big Tech's AI spending spree a genius bet or a bubble?