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The U.S. is raiding its oil piggy bank. Again.

Washington is releasing 172 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) as part of an IEA-coordinated response to supply pressures from the Iran war.

That's 41% of the entire reserve gone in one move.

The SPR currently holds 413.3M barrels (as of April 3). Once this release is done, that number drops to roughly 243M barrels — a level the U.S. hasn't seen since the early 1980s.

The DOE is running this in chunks. This week's solicitation covers up to 30M barrels of sweet crude in an emergency exchange. It's the third such round, bringing total emergency exchanges to 55M barrels so far.

The exchange works like borrowing sugar from a neighbour… except companies have to return the oil plus extra barrels as a premium. So the U.S. gets it back eventually. In theory.

Because it is. The Biden administration pulled 180M barrels from the SPR in 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine. Levels dropped to ~346M barrels by mid-2023.

Now we're doing it again, with a smaller buffer to start from.

The saving grace? Energy Secretary Chris Wright says the U.S. has arranged to refill the SPR with ~200M barrels within the next year — 20% more than what's being drawn down.

So the plan is: drain it now, refill it later. Classic "we'll deal with that tomorrow" energy.

1. Buy the Energy Refill Trade
The U.S. needs to buy back 200M barrels within a year. That's a government-guaranteed demand signal for oil producers sitting right in front of you.

📌 Action: Look at domestic crude producers like $XOM ( ▼ 1.63% ) or $COP ( ▼ 0.75% ) — they're positioned to supply the refill. A government buyer doesn't haggle.

2. Ride the Energy Sector ETF Wave
SPR draws suppress oil prices short term — but the refill cycle and ongoing geopolitical risk mean energy stays elevated for months.

📌 Action: Consider a position in $XLE ( ▼ 0.68% ) or $VDE ( ▼ 0.58% ) for broad energy sector exposure without single-stock risk. Let the macro do the work.

3. Profit From the Infrastructure Play
Storing, moving and refilling 200M barrels of crude doesn't happen by magic. Pipeline and storage operators quietly win every time the SPR gets drained and restocked.

📌 Action: Look at midstream names like $ET ( ▲ 0.52% ) or $WMB ( ▼ 0.11% ) — they charge fees to move the oil regardless of which direction prices go.

The world's most important shipping lane is running at 10% capacity. And oil markets are feeling every bit of it.

Kevin Hassett, Director of the National Economic Council, says the Strait of Hormuz could be back to normal within two months. That's the good news.

The less good news? We're not there yet.

Right now, the strait is basically a ghost town for tankers. Boats are moving through, but at a fraction of normal volume. Hassett is promising a "rapid reduction in energy prices" once things open up… but that's contingent on a deal actually happening.

And deals, as we're about to get into, are not exactly guaranteed.

As of Friday, U.S. warships are being restocked with what the president called "the best weapons ever made" — ready to resume strikes on Iran if talks in Pakistan fall apart.

His message was simple: deal or decimation.

"If we don't have a deal, we will be using them, and we will be using them very effectively," Trump told the New York Post.

The clock is ticking. JD Vance, Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner flew to Islamabad to meet with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. Trump says we'd know the outcome within 24 hours.

Iran, for its part, wants sanctions lifted. Classic negotiating standoff — everyone wants everything and no one wants to blink first.

Trump didn't hide his skepticism either. "To our face, they're getting rid of all nuclear weapons. And then they go out to the press and say, 'No, we'd like to enrich.'"

Not exactly a vibe of mutual trust.

The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly 20% of global oil supply. At 10% capacity, markets are already pricing in the tension. If talks collapse and military action resumes, energy prices spike. If a deal lands, Hassett's "rapid reduction" kicks in.

It's essentially a binary trade. And the answer is coming fast.

The man who predicted the housing crash is back in the headlines.

Michael Burry, the real-life hedge fund manager immortalised in The Big Short, has revealed a fresh batch of trades. And the market noticed.

JD $JD ( ▲ 2.08% ) popped over 2% on Friday after the news dropped. Burry called JD a "significant add" and said recent share price weakness gave him an attractive entry point.

Alibaba $BABA ( ▼ 0.27% ) is a new position, sitting at just over 6%. Shares barely moved… down marginally to around $127.60.

Yes, that GameStop $GME ( ▲ 1.53% ). He already had a "decent sized position" and apparently wanted more.

And he picked up shares in Fiserv $FISV ( ▼ 0.57% ), a payment tech company, citing confidence in its new leadership.

Burry added to his Nvidia puts — specifically January 2027 Strike $115 puts, bought at $3.30.

He also holds January 2027 Strike $100 puts from an earlier bet.

His framing: he's effectively short Nvidia at around 3% of notional value. If NVDA really starts sliding, borrowing costs alone could match that figure.

This fits his broader thesis. Back in February, Burry publicly questioned whether Big Tech's AI data centre spending spree is actually sustainable. Or just a very expensive way to set money on fire.

He hasn't softened that view.

1. Follow the Smart Money Into China
Burry doesn't buy quietly. When he calls Chinese tech an "attractive entry point," that's a signal worth respecting. JD and Alibaba are trading at valuations Western tech hasn't seen in years.

📌 Action: Consider adding exposure via $JD ( ▲ 2.08% ) or $BABA ( ▼ 0.27% ) — or spread the risk with an ETF like $KWEB ( ▼ 0.31% ) (China tech). Size it small, volatility is part of the deal.

2. Ride the GME Attention Wave
Burry added to GameStop. That alone will drive retail buzz, meme energy, and short-term price movement. You don't have to believe in the business to trade the momentum.

📌 Action: Watch $GME ( ▲ 1.53% ) for a short-term pop on the news cycle. Set a tight exit target. This isn't a long-term hold — it's a sentiment trade.

3. Get Into Fintech Before It Gets Crowded
Burry backing Fiserv is the quiet move most people glossed over. Payment infrastructure is boring — until it isn't. New leadership plus Burry's stamp of approval is an underrated setup.

📌 Action: Look at $FISV ( ▼ 0.57% ) as a steady, lower-volatility alternative to chasing the China plays. Less hype, more fundamentals.