💸 $42B Lost. IPO Next.

He's calling it "10x bigger than the largest product in history."

The last time a claim that bold turned out to be true, the product was called the iPhone...

...and investors who owned Apple beforehand saw it run as high as 7,537%.

An analyst believes this launch could be bigger.

We just published a free briefing naming 3 stocks positioned for the launch.

Read it now, before the launch.

Anthropic lost $42 billion last year.

That's roughly $115 million a day. Every day. Including Christmas.

And now it wants to go public. Here's what its IPO prospectus reveals 👇

Revenue grew 12-fold in 2025 to nearly $4.6 billion.

Most companies would throw a party for 12x growth. Anthropic threw a very, very expensive one.

Before you panic about that $42 billion: most of it is writedowns on liabilities tied to past fundraising.

Strip those out and the operating loss was more than $8 billion. Still eye-watering. Just less apocalyptic.

Total operating expenses hit $12.65 billion. More than half of that, $7.33 billion, went on compute and infrastructure.

That's triple what it spent in 2024.

Read that again. Anthropic spent more on computing power than it made in revenue. Roughly $1.60 on compute for every $1 coming in the door.

The safety net? $20.28 billion in cash, equivalents and short-term investments as of December 31.

Here's the number that made us spit out our coffee.

Anthropic expects to spend at least $518 billion over the next decade to power its AI. That works out to about $142 million a day, for ten straight years.

The biggest single cheque goes to SpaceX: up to $84.5 billion for computing capacity through 2029.

That's a serious upgrade. In May, SpaceX's own IPO paperwork showed Anthropic paying $1.25 billion a month for up to three years, cancellable with 90 days' notice. Full term? About $45 billion.

Now it's nearly double. Somebody really likes the rocket company's servers.

Google, Amazon and Microsoft make up the rest of the landlord list.

Fun twist: Google and SpaceX (via xAI) are also Anthropic's competitors. It's paying its rivals rent. Silicon Valley is one big awkward group chat.

CEO Dario Amodei has called for the AI industry to slow the pace of releasing new capabilities.

Then Anthropic shipped Opus 5.5 last week to counter OpenAI's momentum after GPT-6 Astra. Arms races have a funny way of ignoring the rules.

The IPO queue is stacking up too:

The AI IPO wave is officially here. Retail investors are about to get access to companies that were previously VC-only.

But this prospectus shows the price of admission. These businesses burn staggering amounts of cash chasing growth, and the payoff sits years out.

Meanwhile, the companies collecting the rent are getting paid right now. Google, Amazon, Microsoft and SpaceX get a cut whether any single AI lab wins or loses.

In a gold rush, the shovel sellers tend to sleep well.

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Uncle Sam is raiding the emergency oil piggy bank. Again.

The US plans to release up to 40 million barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).

The timing? A few weeks before the November midterms. Pure coincidence, surely. 🫡

Oil and fuel prices have ripped higher since military operations against Iran began on Feb. 28.

Gasoline is still above $4 a gallon. Diesel has blown past $6.

At those prices, every trip to the pump doubles as a campaign ad for the other side.

With control of Congress on the ballot, the administration needs prices lower yesterday.

This release completes America's 172 million barrel contribution to an international effort launched after the Iran war kicked off.

Problem: some European members of the International Energy Agency have delivered only part of what they pledged.

Energy Secretary Chris Wright wants them to pay up.

It's the group dinner where everyone ordered lobster and then "forgot their wallet."

Here's the bit that should make you raise an eyebrow.

This drawdown leaves the SPR at its lowest level since 1982. E.T. was in cinemas the last time the reserve looked this thin.

Federal law blocks non-emergency releases once the reserve drops below 252.4 million barrels.

Wright has signalled another drawdown is unlikely.

The good news? The oil goes out as a loan. Companies repay the government with extra barrels, and the Energy Department expects about 200 million barrels back over the next year.

Think borrowing sugar from your neighbour, then returning the bag with interest.

Bids for this release are due Oct. 6 at 11 a.m. Central.

When the government's backup plan is running low, the market tends to notice.

AI needs to make $6 trillion a year to pay for itself.

That's bigger than Germany's entire economy. Every single year. By 2031.

That's the verdict from Bain & Company's 7th Global Technology Report, and the math gets wild 👇

Big Tech is on track to spend $780 billion on AI infrastructure this year.

That's Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta and Oracle combined, burning through over $2 billion a day.

It's also almost 5x what they spent in 2023. Nothing says "calm, measured strategy" like quintupling your budget in three years.

The buildings are getting silly too. Meta's Prometheus data center in Ohio is approaching 1GW of capacity.

Bain expects the biggest campuses to hit 9GW by 2030. At that point it's less a data center and more a small country with a cooling problem.

Here's how Bain gets there.

By 2031, annual AI infrastructure spending could hit $1.5 trillion. That covers new data centers, fresh compute, and constant upgrades to GPUs, memory and networking gear.

Bain assumes capex runs at about 25% of industry revenue, which it calls ambitious but reasonable.

Flip that around and you need roughly $6 trillion in annual AI revenue to keep the lights on.

So where does the money come from?

Consumer and enterprise AI (subscriptions, ads, coding tools, sales, marketing, customer service, IT) could bring in $1.2 trillion to $1.8 trillion.

That leaves a $4.2 trillion hole. Bain's four candidates to fill it:

Read that last bullet again. The biggest chunk of the plan is basically "we'll think of something."

Bain's tech chairman David Crawford says the debate is stuck on employee productivity. The bill needs trillions in new revenue on top of that.

He's calling for a wave of innovation that makes mobile and cloud look small. And he openly admits the infrastructure is being built well ahead of demand.

Funding it sustainably means adding about 1% to global GDP growth every year. Casual.

So far, the winners are obvious. From 2020 to 2026, hardware and chip companies grew market cap 24% a year. Software? Just 6%.

The shovel sellers are feasting. The gold miners are still digging.

If you own a broad US index fund, you already have a big stake in this bet. Several of those five spenders sit near the top of the market.

The chip rally has been fuelled by capex. If the revenue doesn't show up, spending eventually has to slow, and the shovel sellers would feel it first.

Watch the revenue side as closely as the capex headlines. That's where this story gets decided.

Pioneer, the summit where CX leaders redefine what’s possible, is on October 7th.

Join leaders from Fin, Anthropic, and Clay for an insightful conversation on the state of AI transformation.

You’ll discover how some of the most innovative minds in CX have transformed their organizations, learn how they think about CX, and hear how they're planning for what's next.

Join the conversation in San Francisco, or tune in virtually.

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