🏒 50% Tariffs On Hockey Sticks

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America just slapped a 50% tariff on hockey sticks.

Also dairy, cement and textiles. The full blitz covers about $20B of Canadian exports, and it went live on Saturday.

Weekend talks collapsed. A trade spat became a trade war.

Here's the part that stings. Washington was ready to give up a lot.

US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer says the US would have scrapped its Section 232 softwood lumber levies entirely.

It also offered lower tariffs on cars and on metals like steel and aluminium, which was Canada's top priority.

And that 50% wave on dairy, cement, textiles and hockey sticks? Suspended.

Canada's side of the bargain: pull its retaliatory tariffs and lean on the provinces to put American liquor back on the shelves.

Both sides were one signature away. Then it fell apart.

The deal died on details that sound small and absolutely are not.

Pickups and semi trucks got carved out of the exemptions. Then came the fight over how to tax cars built with both US and Canadian content, which is how that industry actually works.

Then the asks that had nothing to do with trucks: changes to Canada's cultural protections, plus terms blocking Canada from signing trade deals with anyone else.

That last one reads less like a tariff schedule and more like a leash.

Canada's public was never buying it. Mark Carney, in Ottawa: "We are masters in our own home", followed by a line about having the reserves, the resilience and the plan.

The new 50% is landing under Section 338 of the 1930 Tariff Act.

Why reach for a 95-year-old law? Because it routes around USMCA, the trade deal Trump signed in his own first term.

Canada's counter-tariffs hit September 8, with financial aid promised for businesses caught in the crossfire.

Trump's reply on Truth Social was that Canada wants "the benefits of being a State, without being one". Three exclamation marks. Naturally.

The two countries trade about $2B of goods every day. That's roughly $83 million an hour, including the hours you spend asleep.

Annually it's nearly $715B, moving through supply chains stitched together across the border.

Canada likely eats the bigger macro hit. The US damage is narrower and sharper, concentrated in autos, energy and homebuilding.

So for your wallet? Pricier cars, twitchier energy costs, and a bigger bill for anything built with lumber.

Nothing here is resolved. September 8 is the next domino.

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The US Treasury has nearly $1 trillion sitting in its checking account. Scott Bessent might spend it on bonds.

That's what CNBC reported Monday, citing two senior Treasury officials.

Nobody saw that money coming.

The Treasury General Account is the government's current account at the Fed. Balance: just under $1T.

Until Monday, markets assumed the bond buyback plan would be funded from somewhere much smaller.

Now the biggest cash pile in Washington is on the table.

In an interview Friday, Bessent called the expanded long-bond purchases a "Treasury twist".

In English? Sell short-term debt, use the proceeds to buy back long-term debt. Squeeze the yield curve from both ends.

A senior Treasury official did not rule that out. They also would not say how much of the TGA gets used, or when they'd announce it.

Classic. Float the idea, commit to nothing.

On Aug 19, the Treasury said it would double long-end off-the-run buybacks to at least $4B from $2B.

Bonds got an initial pop. The 30-year yield fell as low as 5.18%.

Then it faded. Friday's close: 5.28%.

The problem was firepower. Traders looked at an extra $2B against a multi-trillion-dollar bond market and decided it was a water pistol at a house fire.

The TGA changes that maths. It's roughly 250 times the size of a single $4B operation.

Monday's reaction: the 30-year traded at 5.24%, down 4 basis points. Small move, but the direction tells you the market took the report seriously.

The 30-year yield is the anchor for long-dated borrowing costs across the economy. Mortgages, corporate debt, and the discount rate every analyst uses to value your growth stocks all take their cue from the long end.

If the Treasury can genuinely lean on long yields, that's a tailwind for anything sensitive to long-term rates. If it turns out to be talk, the fade from 5.18% back to 5.28% is your preview of what happens next.

Two dates matter. The first expanded buyback operation runs Sept 9, and officials confirmed no change has been made to the official auction schedule.

Watch whether they ever attach an actual number to the TGA. Until they do, this is a threat, not a policy.

Nancy Pelosi bought 10,000 shares of Intel. Then she bought call options on top of it.

The disclosure covers two names: Intel $INTC ( ▼ 3.12% ) and Bloom Energy $BE ( ▲ 1.28% ).

The congresswoman for California's 11th district filed a periodic transaction report showing four separate positions.

On Intel:

On Bloom Energy:

Those 150 contracts control 15,000 shares of extra exposure, since one standard US option covers 100 shares.

The share buys are the boring half. The calls are where the opinion lives.

Both option positions land on the exact same expiry date. Somebody has a deadline in mind.

Long-dated calls are a bet with a clock attached. You pay up front for months of runway and expect a story to finish inside it.

A $50 strike on Intel says the comeback is real. A $100 strike on Bloom Energy says the same shape of bet, on a much smaller company.

And this isn't a one-off. She disclosed Intel call options back in June, alongside Uber.

Two months later, she's back for seconds on the same chipmaker.

Less than the headlines suggest.

Disclosures arrive weeks after the trade actually happens. By the time a filing hits the public, the price on your screen has already moved away from the price on her form.

The ranges are gloriously vague too. "Between $500,001 and $1M" is a half-million-dollar shrug.

What's genuinely useful is the structure. Shares tell you someone likes a company.

Calls with a fixed expiry tell you they think something specific happens by a specific date. That's the sharper signal, and reading it costs nothing.

She's taken steady criticism for being one of the most financially active members of Congress. The trades keep getting copied anyway.