Gainers📈 & Losers📉
Our Biggest Gainers & Losers of the Day in the $100,000 Build Portfolio
For the 23rd January 2025:
AI Can’t Exist Without Them! 🤖🚀
No Nonsense News ❌
Ready For A Breakout 🚀
AI Can’t Exist Without Them! 🤖
There’s a reason monopolies aren’t allowed.
It’s because it doesn’t give anyone else a chance. Well ASML have quietly managed to become one & it doesn’t seem like anyone’s paying attention.
ASML down nearly 4.5% today. Just more discounts as far as I’m concerned
They’ve built a monopoly around EUV (extreme ultraviolet) lithography. I know what you’re thinking. “Mark, I’m not a nerd. What does that mean?”.
It’s a posh way of saying they make the machines that make the chips that power pretty much…. everything. Your iPhone, your PS5, Tesla’s robots. You get the idea.
They’re down nearly 4.5% today & as far as I’m concerned, it’s just an extra 4.5% gain for future me.
ASML is Bruce Lee 🥋
Bruce Lee once said:
And that’s what ASML have done. Not with kicks. Just focused on one piece of tech.
They’ve spent 20+ years & billions of $$$ perfecting EUV tech & it’s paying off. Nobody else is even close to catching up right now.
Do you wanna know once of the biggest perks about this?
You end up with a VIP client list because they literally can’t go anywhere else. We’re talking guys like TSMC, Samsung, Intel. All locked in for decades.
Now ASML are in the kitchen cooking up the next gen systems & already starting to hit the market. That moat just keeps getting wider & wider.
Let’s get into the numbers so we can see how well they’re really doing.
By the Numbers 📊
2025 Revenue: Forecasted at €32.5B (~15% growth YoY)
2026 Revenue: Forecasted at €37.5B (~15% growth YoY again. Ask anyone that’s been in a toxic relationship. Consistency is sexy)
Margins: 30% by 2026
Price Target: $1,290 by 2026. That’d leave you with an 80% gain from current price. 🤯
The general agreement is we’ll see at least 23% gains in the next 12 months
ASMl’s current price is $715. That means there’s a margin of safety of 28%. That’s huge. Enough for us to not worry about the risks? Well, let’s see what they are.
The Risky Business⚠️
No stocks perfect. ASML definitely isn’t an exception. So what should you be keeping an eye on?
China Sales Decline: U.S. export controls mean ASML’s revenue from China could drop from 50% to 20% by 2025. Not ideal. And who knows what else Trump is going to come up with to get at China.
Taiwan Tension: China & Taiwan aren’t exactly best pals. If they go from words to actions, it’s bad news for the whole chip game because Taiwan is a critical part of the supply chain. It’s probably just bad news for everyone tbh.
Customer Delays: Remember those new high-NA EUV systems they’re cooking up? Some customers are dragging their feet, but this is already priced in. Why would customers not want new tech? A couple of reasons. They might not have the infrastructure ready to integrate the machines. New systems means new spending & capex might be tight. Or they could be waiting on other companies to be the canary down the mines to make sure it all works like it should.
I think the most concerning are 1 & 2. But there is a pretty big margin of safety & the risks are if, buts & maybes for now. Unless they materialise, ASML can hold my money.
My Plan 🗺
ASML isn’t getting the love it deserves. That’s a great thing for me in the short term. It means I can get a lower average entry.
The more it falls, the more I’ll buy as long as the fundamentals stay this way.
Long term, investors will catch on. ASML isn’t just a chipmaker. If you want to make the world’s most advanced chips, you have to go through them. Period.
AI is still a baby & with a moat like that, the cash will come.
It currently makes up 1.2% of my portfolio but at these prices? I’m considering tripling my position size. I’ll steadily scale it up but if there’s more drops like today I might catch FOMO fever & do it sooner than later. 😅
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Ready For A Breakout 🚀
It’s been a recovery story. Now it’s time for the breakout.
Micron’s stock got wrecked about a month ago. We’re talking a 16% drop in a single day. Don’t let that scare you off. They’ve practically made a full recovery since then & it’s about to get better.
Another sexy AI stock down over 4% today. Must be my lucky day.
There’s a massive disconnect between Wall Street’s freakout & the company’s actual growth story.
The AI Boom Is Feeding Micron 🍴
Micron’s business is literally built for the AI era. Its high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips are the unsung heroes of Nvidia’s GPUs. The same GPUs that are running AI models like ChatGPT & powering hyperscalers like Amazon & Microsoft.
Here’s the headlines on Micron’s data center performance:
Data center revenue hit a record $4.4B in Q1 FY2025. Up 153% YoY. 🔥
Over 50% of Micron’s total revenue now comes from data centers, thanks to HBM demand.
Next-gen HBM4 chips (think faster, stronger, better) drop in 2026. Projections say it could rake in $100B TAM by 2030.
Nvidia gave Micron a nod for being their go to HBM supplier
So why does all this matter?
Easy. AI is the biggest wave of tech innovation in decades. And it’s still a tiny baby.
Nvidia’s projected revenue for FY2026 is $196B, 90% of that is tied to data centres. Micron is the passenger princess on this rocket. 💅
Not All Sunshine & Semiconductors 🌦
It’s not all just holding hands with Nvidia, skipping in a field in the sunshine.
Micron’s consumer NAND business (think storage for your laptop or phone) is… struggling.
Revenue guidance for Q2 took a 10% hit. The blame was on inventory reductions & slow PC refresh cycles.
NAND prices are in the gutter because of over supply.
The bad? good? news is this isn’t a Micron problem. It’s a market problem.
Micron’s doing their best by cutting NAND inventory to avoid digging a deeper hole. We’ve been told things will improve by the second half of 2025. 🕰️ Let’s keep eyes on it. 👀
My Plan 🗺
Micron is stupid cheap right now.
My current investment in MU is already up over 18%
HBM = Big Money. Micron’s data center segment (its largest & most profitable) is growing 91% in FY2025 & 38% in FY2026. That’s insane.
Hyperscalers (Amazon, Microsoft, Google, etc.) are collectively spending $300B+ in CAPEX this year. A big fat chunk of that is going straight to Micron’s HBM products.
At 15x forward earnings with that sort of money in the pipeline, I don’t even have words. If analysts slapped a reasonable multiple on its fastest growing segment, this thing would be worth $170+. After today’s drop it’s at $104.
That leaves the potential for 62%+ gains.
MU has been trading in a pretty consistent range the past year
Micron has been pretty range bound the past year so if we see more downside & we’re back at $80? I’m loading up heavy. I think the more likely scenario is we breakout above $113 soon.
What did you think of today's update?
That’s all! See you same time tomorrow 👋
P.S Hit reply & let me know what you thought of today’s newsletter. All feedback is welcomed ❤️