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Apple's Plan To Ditch Taiwan 🚨
Even Peace Won't Fix This 😨
5 Stocks Berkshire Won't Sell 📈
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Apple's Plan To Ditch Taiwan 🚨
Apple and Intel are getting back together! Sort of.
A preliminary chip-making deal is on the table, per the Wall Street Journal. And yes, the same Intel that's been having a rough few years may soon be building hardware for the world's most valuable company.
What we know:
Talks have been going on for over a year and have heated up recently
It's still unclear which Apple products Intel would be making chips for
Apple also held talks with Samsung about the same thing earlier this month
The elephant in the room: Apple already has TSMC doing the heavy lifting on chips for iPhones, iPads, and the rest of the lineup. So Intel isn't walking into an empty room here — it'd be fighting for a seat at a very crowded table.
This feels less like a love story and more like Apple keeping its options open.
Diversifying your chip supply chain when US-Taiwan tensions are a thing? Smart. Giving Intel a lifeline while getting leverage over TSMC? Even smarter.
Don't read too much into this yet. “Preliminary deal" is doing a lot of work in that headline. But the direction of travel is clear: Apple wants manufacturing redundancy, and Intel needs a win.
Watch this space.
TL;DR
Apple and Intel have struck a preliminary chip-making agreement, per the WSJ
It's unclear which Apple products Intel would manufacture chips for
Talks have been ongoing for over a year and recently intensified
Apple also held separate talks with Samsung about chip manufacturing
Apple currently relies on TSMC for iPhone, iPad, and other device chips
This looks like Apple diversifying its supply chain rather than replacing TSMC
1. Ride the Intel Comeback
The market hasn't fully priced in what a sustained Apple contract could mean for Intel's revenue. If this deal gets confirmed, INTC could see a serious re-rating.
📌 Action: Accumulate $INTC ( ▲ 13.96% ) on dips before an official announcement drops. The risk/reward on a preliminary deal becoming public is asymmetric in your favour.
2. Double Down on TSMC's Moat
Apple sniffing around Intel and Samsung doesn't mean TSMC is going anywhere. It means Apple wants leverage. TSMC still makes the best chips on the planet and that's not changing overnight.
📌 Action: Any dip in $TSM ( ▼ 0.6% ) on this news is a buying opportunity. Treat the diversification narrative as noise and the TSMC quality moat as signal.
3. Play the Semiconductor Sector Broadly
This deal is a signal that chip demand is accelerating across the board. Apple doesn't ink agreements unless it's planning serious volume.
📌 Action: Add exposure to the semiconductor sector via $SOXX ( ▲ 5.68% ) or $SMH ( ▲ 4.9% ) to capture upside across the whole supply chain without betting on one name.
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Even Peace Won't Fix This 😨
Shell CEO Wael Sawan didn't mince words on his latest earnings call: the world is already sitting on a ~1 billion barrel crude shortage, and it's getting worse every day the Strait of Hormuz stays shut.
"We have dug ourselves a hole of close to 1B barrels of crude shortage at the moment," he said. "The journey back will be a long one."
That's not a typo. One. Billion. Barrels.
How did we get here?
The Strait of Hormuz closure is the IEA's officially confirmed biggest supply disruption in history. Locked-in cargoes, unproduced barrels, and a shipping logjam that doesn't just fix itself when someone signs a ceasefire.
Halliburton CEO Jeffrey Miller echoed the same grim math last month: "Cumulative production deficits are trending towards 1B barrels. Recovery will not be a quick or simple process."
These aren't bears talking their book. These are the guys who run the pipes.
The demand side is already cracking.
Airlines are down roughly 5% on fuel demand as the only real lever anyone can pull right now. Think about that: the entire aviation industry is effectively rationing jet fuel.
ConocoPhillips CFO Andrew O'Brien landed the scariest line of the bunch: import-dependent countries could face critical shortages by June or July. That's not a tail risk. That's six weeks away.
And even if peace breaks out tomorrow?
Don't get excited too fast. Exxon CEO Darren Woods says expect a 1-2 month lag between the strait reopening and oil actually flowing normally to market. The backlog doesn't evaporate overnight.
So even the best-case scenario still means a rough summer.
TL;DR
Shell CEO says the world is short ~1 billion barrels of crude, and the gap widens daily
The Strait of Hormuz closure is the biggest supply disruption in IEA history
Halliburton and ConocoPhillips confirm the same trajectory — this takes a long time to unwind
Airlines have already cut fuel demand ~5%; broader demand curtailment is spreading
Critical shortages could hit import-dependent countries as early as June/July
Even if the strait reopens, markets won't see normal supply for another 1-2 months after that
5 Stocks Berkshire Won't Sell 📈
Berkshire Hathaway has crossed the 10% ownership threshold in two more Japanese trading giants — Sumitomo Corp. and Marubeni Corp.
Sumitomo stake: up to 10.05% (from 9.30% in March). Marubeni: up to 10.10% (from 9.32%). Both crossed the line in the first week of May.
That means Berkshire now holds 10%+ in all five of Japan's biggest trading houses — Sumitomo, Marubeni, Mitsubishi, Itochu, and Mitsui.
At the annual meeting, new CEO Greg Abel made it crystal clear: this isn't a trade. It's a long-term commitment.
And it doesn't stop there. Berkshire also announced a $1.8B investment in Tokio Marine Holdings back in March, doubling down on the Japanese financial sector.
The play here is pretty simple. These trading conglomerates are cheap on a valuation basis, pay solid dividends, and sit at the centre of global commodity flows. Buffett spotted that years ago. Abel is making sure everyone knows they're not done.
TL;DR
Berkshire crossed 10% ownership in Sumitomo and Marubeni this week
It now holds 10%+ in all five major Japanese trading houses
Greg Abel confirmed the Japan positions are long-term holds
Berkshire is also deploying $1.8B into Tokio Marine Holdings
The trading houses offer cheap valuations, strong dividends, and commodity exposure
This is one of the clearest signals yet of Berkshire's post-Buffett strategic direction