Are You Brave Enough For China? 😨

Are You Brave Enough For China? 😨 

US-China tensions are scary. I get it. But it is cooking up huge discounts for anyone brave enough to buy the fundamentals & let the geopolitics sort themselves out.

Who’s a great candidate to buy on fundamentals? I’m looking at you Alibaba $BABA ( ▼ 2.86% )  

It’s the Amazon + AWS + FedEx of China. And right now? It’s sitting in the bargain bin.

Here’s the TL;DR:

• E-commerce is crushing it at home.

• Cloud AI is finally waking up.

• International is going global.

• They’re buying back stock like it’s 2021 again.

Let’s break it down. 👇️ 

Alibaba’s stock is still down bad from its highs. Somewhere around 23% down. Blame it on trade war fears, Chinese deflation, and the latest round of tech crackdowns.

The broader market took a hit, and BABA got caught in the mess. Chuck in a revived US tariff threat, and investors panicked.

But while the headlines scream doom, the actual business is strong. Behind the chaos? Growth.

China’s Amazon Is Still Printing 🛒

Q1 e-commerce sales? Up 8.7% YoY.

88VIP members? 50 million strong.

They just linked up with Xiaohongshu (China’s TikTok + Pinterest) and launched instant commerce. Think 40 million orders per day delivered in under an hour.

Their goal? Dominate a market with a potential 1 billion consumers. With their existing delivery and logistics empire, they might just pull it off.

☁️ Cloud + AI = 💰 (Eventually)

Cloud revenue jumped 17.7% YoY. But the real story is the AI explosion.

AI product sales have been growing triple digits for seven straight quarters. Their new Qwen3 model is going head to head with Google’s Gemini 2.5 Pro. And outperforming OpenAI, Grok, and the rest of the AI gang in certain benchmarks.

All of this is costing money though. Free cash flow dipped. But BABA’s sitting on a $51.6B cash pile, and they’re not afraid to spend it to win.

Global Flex: AliExpress, Trendyol, Lazada🌍

Alibaba’s not just playing defense in China.

International e-commerce revenue? Up 22.3% YoY.

The world’s starting to get comfy with buying from AliExpress and friends. It’s slow and steady, but the brand power is growing.

The Valuation Is a Joke (In a Good Way)💰

• FWD P/E: 11.53x

• FWD PEG: 0.71x

Compare that to:

• Amazon: 1.90x

• Microsoft: 2.82x

• Google: 1.21x

• JD: 0.96x

Alibaba is still dirt cheap. And this is after a 75% bounce from the 2022 lows.

So, What’s the Play? 🤔 

I don’t see a world where BABA doesn’t come back to recent highs for a 30% gain.

If I get a bit dreamy something like this comes to mind. Trade war cools off, sentiment flips, and it reverts to its old 5-year average P/E of 28x. That puts it at $350+. More than a double from here.

Even if my starry eyed vision doesn’t come true, you still get:

• A strong e-commerce biz

• A growing cloud AI story

• Shareholder-friendly buybacks

• A balance sheet that’s stacked

BABA’s a buy. Not a YOLO bet. It’s one’s for patient investors who don’t mind holding through noise.

I’ll be buying in. As the prices gets lower, I’ll get more aggressive.

Just remember: this ain’t risk-free. The trade war ain’t over, China’s recovery is still in progress, and ADRs still carry baggage.

But if you believe in the long game, BABA’s a delicious value play.

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PROTECT YOUR PET AND WALLET

$8 BILLION Bet To Save The Day 😬 

Salesforce $CRM ( ▼ 0.99% ) has had a rough patch. But things are starting to look... interesting. CRM’s got strong profits, cheap valuation, and a growing AI play. The question is - Are we early to the comeback?

Here’s the TL;DR:

• Salesforce stock has been dragging behind the rest of the software gang.

• Revenue growth? Slowing.

• AI hype? Still early innings.

• M&A spree? Yep, they just threw $8B at Informatica.

• Valuation? Dirt cheap by historical standards.

Wall Street’s not sold yet. But if you zoom out, this might be our “buy before the rebound” moment.

Let’s break it down. 👇️ 

Everyone Else Is Winning🥇

You’d think Salesforce would be riding high with all the AI hype right? Nope. It looks like they’ve taken more of a spectator role. Watching from the sidelines while Microsoft, Palantir and the rest of the gang in the $IGV ( ▲ 0.53% ) ETF do their thing.

It’s a growth thing. Speaking of…

Growth Is Slowing, AI Still Loading...📉

Salesforce’s Q1 looked solid profit-wise but felt sleepy in the growth department. Revenue was up 8%. Not bad, but not the firecracker Wall Street wants.

Their core business is feeling… mature. The cloud stuff? Slowing. Sales and marketing clouds? Risk of saturation.

AI is supposed to be the answer. Enter: Agentforce.

It’s their shiny new AI assistant. Already has:

• 8K customers (half are paying)

• $100M in ARR

• Crunched 22 trillion records

But even with those numbers, the market’s still watching with its arms crossed.

The $8 Billion Bet💰

CRM just wrote an $8B cheque for Informatica. Basically a data plumbing company.

Salesforce says the deal will be cash-flow positive by year 2.

The goal is pretty clear. Build an AI beast by owning more of the data stack. But Wall Street's seen this movie before, and the last few M&A attempts didn’t exactly win Oscars.

Valuation Is Screaming “Undervalued”📉

CRM’s trading at 14x forward EBITDA. That’s way below its 10-year average of 26x.

The stock found a bottom in April. Buyers stepped in. Confidence came back. Long-term uptrend is intact.

No one’s saying CRM is about to become the next Nvidia. But investors are starting to sniff out that this might be the inflection point.

The Big Picture: Don’t Count CRM Out🧠

Salesforce is still one of the most dominant SaaS platforms in the world.

The AI stuff is real. The traction is real. The slowdown? Also real. But it’s starting to stabilise.

If they can:

• Keep Agentforce momentum up

• Nail the Informatica integration

• Push AI revenue past $1B meaningfully

Then CRM might be one of those “everyone knew in hindsight” stories.

Final Verdict? 🤔 

Salesforce is cheap, improving, and already getting some bullish momentum back. Execution risk is still a thing. But the downside is looking limited.

If you’re a believer in enterprise AI, CRM’s April bottom might be your green light.