In partnership with
In today’s post:
🫧 "Biggest Bubble Ever" Is Here
🚢 One Boat Just Restarted a War
🤕 Only One Mag 7 Stock Survived
Perps Just Made It to the US. Finally.
Perpetual futures: $90 trillion in annual volume, almost all of it offshore, unregulated, and one bad week away from vanishing.
Kalshi brought them onshore. First CFTC-regulated perps in US history. No expiry, no rollover, up to 5.8x leverage on BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, and more. Trade the price direction without touching the asset.
Using leverage increases risk of loss. Leverage is subject to the Firm's review and the customer's risk profile.
🫧 "Biggest Bubble Ever" Is Here
Jeremy Grantham is back. And he's not whispering.
The legendary investor just labeled this market the biggest bubble the US has ever seen.
Leading the parade? AI high flyers. He thinks a 70% price drop isn't off the table.
His twist: this time really is different. Railroads and the internet had obvious uses. This rally is running on vibes.
The Euphoria Red Flags
He pointed at SpaceX on Steven Bartlett's podcast. The company reportedly pegs its addressable market at a quarter of global GDP.
Mining asteroids. Endless AI riches. Grantham calls it a fabulous BS story.
In plain English? When the pitch sounds like science fiction, you're near the top.
So what happens if it does pop?
High flyers cut jobs. People feel poorer. People who feel poorer spend less.
The economy gets squeezed. And history says big bubbles bursting tend to be followed by genuinely rough times.
And what’s his advice for people like me and you?
Grantham's playbook is boring on purpose:
60% in a broad non-US equity index (cheaper, and outperforming since early last year)
5–10% in precious metals like gold and silver
A bit of real estate, if it's sensible (though prices are steep)
The rest in bonds
Rule one, in his words: be diversified.
The Catch
Here's the awkward part. Grantham nailed Japan in 1989 and the US in 2000 and 2007.
But he's also called for an epic crash basically every year since 2021. Waiting For The Last Dance. Let The Wild Rumpus Begin. You get the idea.
Even a broken clock is right twice a day. So is this the real thing, or another early call?
Is Grantham right this time?
TL;DR
Grantham says this is the biggest bubble in US history, led by AI stocks.
He won't rule out a 70% drop in the high flyers.
SpaceX's "quarter of global GDP" pitch is his poster child for peak euphoria.
A pop means layoffs, less spending, and a stressed economy.
His fix: 60% non-US equities, 5–10% metals, some property, rest in bonds.
He's been right before, but also crying crash every year since 2021.
$90 Trillion in Offshore Perps. Now They're in the US.
Traders have been going long and short on crypto for years — offshore, unregulated. Kalshi fixed that. First CFTC-regulated perps in the US. BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, and more. Up to 5.8x leverage.
Using leverage increases risk of loss. Leverage is subject to the Firm's review and the customer's risk profile.
Everyone's piling into MP Materials $MP ( ▼ 3.09% ). We called them out over a year ago and then stocks up over 50% since then. The smarter play might be the one still trading off its highs.
There's a company that a year ago was just a magnet shop in Oklahoma. Today it's chasing two of the only rare earth mines outside China and telling investors it has line of sight to $1.8+ billion in adjusted EBITDA by 2030.
That's not a pitch deck fantasy. The U.S. government just handed it ~$1.6 billion. The DFC is funding a ~$600 million optimization plan. And a single mine in Brazil is targeted to throw off $600 million in EBITDA on its own.
Here's the part that makes us lean in: the whole thing trades at an EV around $9 billion. That's just above 5x EV/EBITDA for a business handing the free world an off-ramp from China's rare earth chokehold.
The stock's back at $20, sitting quietly while sector attention drifts elsewhere. What does that mean? You might be early.
A major deal closes in Q3 that adds billions to the valuation overnight. Miss the window, and you could be reading the success story instead of owning it.
In today's Premium deep dive, we break down:
Why a $9 billion EV badly undersells this mine-to-magnet platform
The exact EBITDA math behind the $1.8 billion target (and what funds it)
The one risk that could torch the entire thesis
What to watch as the Serra Verde deal closes in Q3'26
🚢 One Boat Just Restarted a War
The ceasefire lasted about a week.
On Friday, the U.S. military hit Iran after Trump accused Tehran of breaking the deal by drone-striking ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
CENTCOM says American aircraft "struck Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites."
So what set it off? A cargo ship.
A one-way attack drone hit the Singapore-flagged Ever Lovely on Thursday as it exited the strait off Oman.
Trump says Iran fired at least four drones. The U.S. swatted three. The fourth clipped the ship's upper deck.
Good news for the ship: it kept sailing. Its owner, Evergreen Marine, reported broken bridge windows but no injuries and intact cargo.
Trump's verdict on Truth Social? A "foolish violation" of the ceasefire.
Think of the Strait of Hormuz as the world's oil checkout lane. Roughly a fifth of global oil passes through it.
Mess with the checkout lane, and energy traders start sweating.
Here's the kicker. This blew up barely a week after the June 17 memorandum that was supposed to pause the war and ease shipping through the strait.
When reporters asked Trump if Iran would face consequences, he kept it short: "You'll find out."
They found out.
And Iran isn't folding. The IRGC says it repelled the strikes on Sirik Island and promised a response that's "swift and decisive."
Why should you care about a boat near Oman?
Because "ceasefire collapses in the world's busiest oil corridor" is the kind of headline that moves crude, jolts energy stocks, and sends a shiver through risk assets.
A handshake deal where "ambiguity was the feature and not the bug," as one former U.S. diplomat put it, was never going to hold the line for long.
TL;DR
The U.S. struck Iranian missile, drone, and radar sites after Trump said Iran violated the week-old ceasefire.
The trigger: an Iranian drone hit the cargo ship Ever Lovely in the Strait of Hormuz. The ship survived with minor damage.
The Strait of Hormuz carries roughly 20% of global oil, so any conflict there is an energy-market problem.
The June 17 memorandum was vague by design, which is why it's already cracking.
Iran's IRGC claims it repelled the strikes and is promising a "swift and decisive" response.
Watch crude prices and energy stocks. Escalation risk is back on the table.
🤕 Only One Mag 7 Stock Survived
Tech stocks got dumped hard. Investors hit the sell button on growth names, and the market's biggest giants took the worst of it.
So which mega-caps are now sitting in "oversold" territory? Time to check the RSI.
Quick refresher: RSI is a momentum gauge running 0 to 100.
Below 30 = oversold (maybe due for a bounce). Above 70 = overbought (maybe due for a fall).
Think of it like a stock's heart rate. Too low and it might be ready to spring back. Too high and it's probably sprinting toward a cliff.
Here's where the giants landed:
Palantir $PLTR ( ▲ 5.28% ) — RSI 27
Microsoft $MSFT ( ▲ 5.71% ) — RSI 29
Oracle $ORCL ( ▼ 2.58% ) — RSI 31
Apple $AAPL ( ▲ 3.14% ) — RSI 32
NVIDIA $NVDA ( ▼ 1.64% ) — RSI 40
Palantir and Microsoft are both officially in oversold land. The rest are knocking on the door.
Now the spicy part.
The Magnificent Seven $MAGS ( ▲ 0.87% ) just had their worst day versus the Nasdaq 100 since at least May 2024.
The Mag 7-to-Nasdaq ratio is falling off a cliff. Per Daily Chartbook, that daily drop is the worst in the available data.
And this isn't a one-day tantrum. The "magnificent" leaders have been quietly bleeding against the broader Nasdaq since late last year.
Want the brutal stat? Since the start of 2026, six of the seven Mag 7 names have trailed the S&P 500.
Only Alphabet beat the market, and barely. A participation trophy, basically.
The kicker? Not one of them has outpaced the Nasdaq.
When even the "magnificent" can't beat the index they helped build, you know the leadership baton is getting passed.
TL;DR
Tech stocks sold off hard as investors fled growth names.
RSI rankings: Palantir (27) and Microsoft (29) are oversold; Oracle, Apple, and NVIDIA are close behind.
RSI below 30 signals oversold (possible bounce); above 70 signals overbought (possible drop).
The Magnificent Seven just posted their worst day vs the Nasdaq 100 since at least May 2024.
Six of seven Mag 7 stocks have trailed the S&P 500 since the start of 2026; only Alphabet edged ahead.
Not a single Mag 7 name has beaten the Nasdaq this year.
1. Buy the Oversold Bounce
Palantir (27) and Microsoft (29) are sitting in oversold territory, which often precedes a short-term technical rebound.
📌 Action: Watch $PLTR ( ▲ 5.28% ) and $MSFT ( ▲ 5.71% ) for a reversal signal, then swing trade the bounce. Take profits as RSI climbs back toward 50.
2. Follow the Money Out of Mega-Caps
Six of seven Mag 7 names are trailing the S&P 500, meaning leadership is rotating elsewhere.
📌 Action: Shift fresh capital into a broad index like $SPY ( ▼ 0.72% ) or an equal-weight fund like $RSP ( ▼ 0.68% ) to ride the rotation instead of fighting it.
3. Back the Lone Winner
Alphabet is the only Mag 7 stock beating the market this year, hinting at relative strength while peers fade.
📌 Action: Consider adding $GOOGL ( ▼ 1.84% ) on dips as a long-only play on the one name still outrunning the pack.