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In today’s post:

  • πŸ’€ Burry's 2 Charts of Doom

  • πŸ›’ Oil Crashed 43%. Now What?

  • πŸš€ Bulls Bet Big on Tuesday

SpaceX Is Overvalued. Here's the Smarter Play.

At $1.75 trillion, SpaceX is now worth more than Coca-Cola, Disney, and Netflix combined β€” a company with no public earnings track record and a $135 price tag set by the people selling it to you.

Do the math. To justify that valuation, SpaceX would have to grow into one of the largest companies on Earth before you ever see a profit. History is brutal on day-one IPO buyers who pay that kind of premium. Most are underwater within a year.

There's a smarter way to ride the wave. Our analyst found 3 stocks positioned to ride the SpaceX boom β€” without the bubble pricing. You get the tickers, entry guidance, price targets, a bonus 4th pick, and a 3-phase buy/sell playbook.

The window before Wall Street rotates in is closing.

πŸ’€ Burry's 2 Charts of Doom

Michael Burry is back on his doom soapbox. And this time he brought Batman quotes.

The Big Short legend spent the weekend torching the AI trade on X, capping it off with the Joker's line from the 1989 film:

"The end is nigh. Dancing with the devil in the pale moon light."

Subtle, Michael. Very subtle.

His actual argument? The AI story isn't a revolution. It's a habit.

"The AI narrative is nothing more than mass addiction," he wrote. Then came the kicker: it "may die a death by a thousand cuts, and I have only seen a few dozen so far."

He thinks we're maybe 3% into the pain.

But Burry didn't just bring vibes. He brought charts.

Two of them, courtesy of Bloomberg:

β€’ Chart 1 (via UBS): AI chip stocks are sprinting miles ahead of the cloud giants actually paying for all this AI infrastructure. The shovel sellers are rich. The gold miners are still digging.

β€’ Chart 2: The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is trading near the top of its 15-year valuation range on forward earnings. Both in absolute terms and relative to the market.

In plain English? Chip stocks are priced like the party never ends.

Burry's bet is that it does. And soon.

Worth remembering: this is the man who called the 2008 housing crash... and has also called about 14 of the last 2 corrections.

Broken clock? Early genius? The market gets to decide.

TL;DR

  • Michael Burry escalated his anti-AI trade rants over the weekend, ending with a Joker quote from Batman (1989)

  • He calls the AI narrative "mass addiction" and expects a death by a thousand cuts

  • UBS chart shows AI chip stocks massively outrunning the cloud giants funding the buildout

  • The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is near the top of its 15-year valuation range on forward P/E

  • Burry has a legendary 2008 call, but also a long history of premature doom

  • Chip valuations leave zero room for disappointment if AI spending slows

You're already following all of this. Kalshi pays you.

Governor races. Senate runoffs. Billboard charts. Celebrity news. Rotten Tomatoes scores. Kalshi has real-money markets on all of it. Every price reflects what the crowd actually thinks will happen next. If you're already following politics and culture closely, you're already doing the work. Kalshi lets you act on it.

Trade responsibly.

A mega-cap just changed its entire business model. And the market barely blinked.

Two of the hottest cloud stocks on the planet crashed 17% and 14% in a single day because of what this company announced. Its own shares? Up 9%.

It's currently the cheapest stock in big tech. Trading at a discount so wide you'd think something was broken.

Nothing's broken. Investors are just looking at the old version of this company.

This is the firm printing $12.4B in free cash flow per quarter, spending more on AI infrastructure than almost anyone alive, and it just found a way to turn its biggest weakness into a brand-new revenue machine.

Our analysis points to 40% upside from here. Not on hope. On simple maths the market hasn't caught up to yet.

The re-rating may have already started. The 9% pop was the warning shot.

In today's Premium deep dive, we break down:

  • Which company this is and why its "boring" pivot is anything but

  • The exact valuation maths behind our fair value target

  • Why two high-flying AI darlings should be nervous

  • The one number that would kill this thesis (and how to track it)

πŸ›’ Oil Crashed 43%. Now What?

The cartel agreed Sunday to pump an extra 188K barrels per day starting August.

That's the latest step in unwinding the supply cuts they've been sitting on since 2023.

Why now? The U.S.-Iran peace deal.

Since the shooting stopped, OPEC+ has greenlit quota hikes totaling 940K barrels per day. That's roughly 1% of global demand.

Here's the funny part. Most of those "increases" were pure fiction while the Strait of Hormuz was shut.

Announcing more oil you can't ship is like promising pizza when your oven's on fire.

But Gulf exports are flowing again, and prices noticed:

  • Brent is down about 43% from its wartime peak, now around $72

  • WTI is sitting below $69

The new worry? Too much oil.

Analysts think a global surplus could hit later this year. OPEC+ may soon have to pick a lane: cut production to defend prices, or flood the market and fight for share.

Neither option is fun. One shrinks your revenue, the other shrinks your price.

And the family dinner is getting awkward.

Iraq wants a bigger quota and is hinting it might walk if it doesn't get one.

The UAE already did. It left the group in May over the same beef.

Next OPEC+ meeting: August 2. Bring popcorn.

TL;DR

  • OPEC+ raised its August output target by 188K bpd, continuing the rollback of 2023-era cuts

  • Total quota hikes since the Iran conflict: 940K bpd, about 1% of global demand

  • Gulf exports are recovering post-peace deal, dragging Brent to ~$72 and WTI below $69

  • Analysts warn of a possible global oil surplus later this year

  • Internal drama: Iraq threatening to leave, UAE already gone

  • Next policy meeting lands August 2

πŸš€ Bulls Bet Big on Tuesday

SpaceX $SPCX ( β–² 2.83% ) gets two big catalysts on Tuesday, and the options market is already popping champagne.

First, the IPO quiet period ends, meaning Wall Street analysts can finally publish ratings and price targets.

Second, the stock joins the Nasdaq 100 the very same day. That means index funds have to buy it. No opinions, no vibes, just forced buying.

Two rockets, one launchpad.

Where the Money's Sitting

SPCX closed Thursday at $162, and it's held the $150 line where it first opened. Volatile? Sure. Broken? No.

The options market expects a move of roughly Β±9% by Friday, putting the stock somewhere between $148 and $176.

But here's the fun part. The biggest bets sit way outside that range:

  • $180 calls: 24,117 open interest (needs an 11% pop)

  • $190 calls: 23,432 open interest (needs a 17% moonshot)

Traders aren't positioned for a "solid week." They're positioned for fireworks.

And the bears? Basically on holiday.

The biggest put position is the $135 strike with a measly 3,631 contracts. That’s more of a rounding error than a hedge.

Then There's the $330 Call 🎰

Someone always brings a lottery ticket to the casino.

The $330 call saw over 106,000 contracts trade at $0.20 a pop. That's a bet SPCX more than doubles in a week.

Will it happen? Almost certainly not. Is it fun to watch? Absolutely.

Why Space Is Suddenly Hot Again

It's not just SpaceX. Rocket Lab $RKLB ( β–² 0.39% ) just agreed to buy Iridium $IRDM ( β–Ό 3.54% ) for around $8B, and the whole sector is buzzing.

So how do you actually play this?

Option 1: Buy the giant. The boring-but-brilliant answer might be Amazon $AMZN ( β–² 0.4% ).

Amazon is acquiring Globalstar $GSAT ( β–Ό 0.7% ) at $90 per share, and from 2028 its Leo satellite network will beam voice, data, and messaging straight to your phone.

SpaceX's own filings size the broadband and mobile opportunity at $1.61 trillion. That's on top of a $370B space-solutions market.

Amazon is a cash cow with the wallet to buy its way in. Not a moonshot, but a seatbelt-on way to play space.

Option 2: Don't pick one winner. Pick the sector. Space isn't one trade, it's a bundle of niches:

The play? Diversify across segments and let the innovation frontier sort itself out.

TL;DR

  • SpaceX (SPCX) gets two catalysts Tuesday: analyst coverage unlocks and Nasdaq 100 inclusion

  • Options imply a Β±9% weekly move, but the biggest bets sit at $180 and $190, needing 11% to 17% gains

  • Bearish positioning is basically nonexistent

  • Retail gamblers piled into the $330 call, a bet the stock doubles in a week

  • Analysts' picks: Amazon as the safe space play, or diversify across Planet Labs, Rocket Lab, Kratos, and Intuitive Machines

  • Space is hot: Rocket Lab is buying Iridium for $8B

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