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In today’s post:
🐻 Burry Wants A Crash. Why?
🙃 So AI Isn't A Hoax Anymore
🤥 Inflation Was Lying To Us
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🐻 Burry Wants A Crash. Why?
Michael Burry wants the stock market to crash. On purpose.
The Big Short legend says markets should "tank hard" to stop the OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs.
For the benefit of humanity, apparently.
🐻 The Burry Broadside
On Tuesday, Burry posted on X: "For the benefit of humanity, the markets should tank hard and prevent the OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs."
Then he doubled down. He says these companies will "suck up and then destroy TRILLIONS of dollars of capital."
Caps lock included. He means it.
Burry's been on this for a while. His main gripe: nobody has proven all this data center spending will ever pay for itself.
Earlier this month, he also called AI leaders' warnings about slowing AI development "self-serving." His theory? Scary safety talk builds hype right before an IPO.
💸 The Numbers Keeping Him Up At Night
According to Reuters, Anthropic's IPO prospectus shows:
About $518 billion in cloud, computing and infrastructure commitments in the coming years
A $42 billion net loss in 2025
A potential valuation above $2 trillion
Put another way, the spending commitments are roughly 12x last year's loss. And last year's loss was not exactly pocket change.
On timing: Anthropic's IPO is expected after the November midterms.
OpenAI has pushed its listing to next year. Sam Altman says there's no specific timeline and that safety work on its next-gen models is the bigger priority.
The same day Burry was posting, Trump hosted AI bosses to sign the "White House Accord on Super Intelligence." (more on this in the next segement)
It's a joint pledge to develop frontier AI responsibly. The key word is voluntary.
Who signed:
Sundar Pichai (Google)
Dario Amodei (Anthropic)
Mark Zuckerberg (Meta)
Greg Brockman (OpenAI)
Elon Musk (SpaceX)
Trump said he's seeing "tremendous self-policing" and that "self-regulation is very important."
So the industry gets to grade its own homework. Bold strategy.
🧠 What It Means For You
Two of the biggest private companies on the planet are heading for public markets. A $2 trillion listing doesn't stay in the tech bubble. Over time, it can end up in the funds sitting in your pension.
The real question is the one Burry keeps asking: can hundreds of billions in AI spending generate returns big enough to justify trillion-dollar price tags?
Nobody knows yet. Burry is betting no. The companies raising the money are betting yes.
Burry has been early before. Being early and being wrong can look identical for a long time.
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A flagship AI data center project just declared force majeure.
The pipeline giant tied to it got dumped. We're adding.
A fortnight ago, this stock hit its highest level since January 2025, after pressing on the same ceiling for almost two years.
Here's what the panic skipped. 90% of its contracts are fee-based, so it earns like a toll road whatever commodities do.
Management guided up to $5.9 billion in growth capital, and nobody expected that spend to pay off this year anyway.
What moved the price was bond math. The 10-year Treasury blasted past 5%, its highest since late 2023, and income stocks got marked down across the board.
The chart has now pulled back to the line that's held its entire uptrend. Today we publish the full breakdown so you can make your own call.
Inside today's Premium+ deep dive:
Whether the project delay is a timing problem or a thesis problem
What the current price already assumes about the next two years
The political risk to AI infrastructure that consensus models ignore
The exact signal that would make us walk away
🙃 So AI Isn't A Hoax Anymore
Five of the most powerful people in AI just signed the same piece of paper.
On Tuesday, leaders from Google, Anthropic, Meta, OpenAI and SpaceXAI signed on to Donald Trump's "White House Accord on Super Intelligence."
Getting these five to agree on lunch would be impressive. Getting them to agree on AI safety? That's rarer than a quiet day on Truth Social.
Here's what they signed up for.
📜 The Four-Layer Safety Sandwich
Trump unveiled the deal on Truth Social. Its official name is the Joint Commitment on Frontier Responsibility.
The signatures:
Sundar Pichai (Google)
Dario Amodei (Anthropic)
Mark Zuckerberg (Meta)
Greg Brockman, President of OpenAI
Elon Musk (SpaceXAI)
The goal: train and build frontier AI models responsibly, backed by four layers of controls and audits.
Internal controls that track what models can do during training and deployment. The focus is cybersecurity, biosecurity and chemical threats, plus making sure models don't hack into systems they shouldn't.
An internal team that checks all that monitoring actually works, and fixes anything that breaks.
An independent external auditor that checks whether the controls are doing their job.
An independent board committee that oversees everyone above and makes sure problems get fixed.
Watch the AI, watch the watchers, then hire someone to watch the watchers.
The companies also agreed to meet regularly to hammer out safety best practices. The world's most expensive group chat just got a new member list.
A couple of weeks ago, Trump called AI concerns a "hoax."
Now he's rolling out a super intelligence safety accord with Silicon Valley's biggest names on the dotted line.
That's a U-turn you could see from orbit. Which, to be fair, Musk probably did.
But none of this is law yet.
The document says it "may make sense" to turn these steps into laws or regulations over time.
The companies say they'll follow the rules whether they're required to or not. Noble. Also exactly what you'd say if you wanted a hand in writing the rules before someone else does.
💸 What It Means For Your Money
So why should an investor care about a safety pledge?
Compliance isn't free. External auditors and new board committees cost money. For Alphabet or Meta, that's pocket change. For smaller AI startups, it could sting.
"May become law" is doing heavy lifting. Voluntary today can become mandatory tomorrow. Regulation risk for AI just got a paper trail.
The biggest players get a seat at the table. Companies that help shape the rules usually end up with rules they can live with. That could widen the moat around the giants.
Policy whiplash is real. "Hoax" to "accord" in a couple of weeks is a reminder that AI policy headlines can flip fast, and so can the stocks attached to them.
The AI trade has always been about how fast these companies can build. Now there's a second question: how much will it cost to build safely?
🤥 Inflation Was Lying To Us
The odds of a Fed rate hike just got nearly cut in half in a week.
A week ago, traders priced a 70.9% chance of a 25 basis point hike in October. On Tuesday it was 50.9%. Today? 37.1%.
What spooked the hawks? One inflation report. Here's the damage.
📉 The Number The Fed Actually Watches
Core PCE (the Fed's favourite inflation gauge, minus food and energy) rose 0.2% in August. Wall Street expected 0.3%.
Year over year, core came in at 3.0% vs. 3.3% expected.
Small miss. Big mood swing.
Before anyone pops champagne: inflation has sat above the Fed's 2% target for more than five years.
That's a houseguest who stopped pretending to look for a flat.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis did its annual data spring clean, and most prior numbers got revised lower.
July's core reading dropped from 0.2% to 0.1%. July's yearly figure fell from 3.3% to 3.0%.
So inflation was cooler than everyone thought. Economists just found out on a Wednesday.
That's why the forecasts missed. They were aiming at a target that had already moved.
Headline PCE (food and energy included) rose 0.3% vs. 0.4% expected, landing at 3.4% year over year.
🛒 Meanwhile, Shoppers Went Wild
Consumer spending jumped 0.9% in August, beating the 0.8% forecast and rebounding hard from 0.1% in July.
Adjusted for inflation, spending still rose 0.6%. That's real stuff going into real trolleys.
The catch? Paychecks didn't keep up.
Personal income rose just 0.2%, vs. 0.5% expected
Real disposable income was flat, after rising 0.3% in July
The saving rate slid to 4.1% from 4.6%
Spending is outrunning income, and savings are picking up the tab.
Like funding a Friday night out with the holiday fund. Fun until July.
🧠 What It Means For Your Money
Cooler inflation takes pressure off the Fed to hike in October. Fewer hikes usually means less upward pressure on borrowing costs, from mortgages to credit cards.
But nobody at the Fed is relaxing with core inflation still a full point above target.
And the spending spree has a shelf life. Households can't raid savings forever. If real incomes stay flat, that 0.9% spending pop could fade quickly.
One soft report gives the Fed breathing room. It doesn't give them a day off.