Costco Got Paid. Did You? 🤔

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The U.S. government is now accepting claims from importers wanting their tariff money back, after the Supreme Court ruled Trump's IEEPA tariffs were never legally valid in the first place.

We're talking $166–$175 billion in potential refunds. One of the biggest trade repayments in American history.

A new federal portal called CAPE (Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries) is now live. Around 330,000 importers covering 53 million shipments from early 2025 through February 2026 are eligible to file claims through U.S. Customs and Border Protection's ACE portal.

Phase 1 tackles the simple stuff first. Recent imports, clean paperwork, straightforward cases. The messier claims come later.

CBP says refunds will hit via electronic transfer within 60–90 days of claim approval. Trade lawyers are already cautioning that delays are "possible." So temper expectations accordingly.

But the tariff story isn't over.

The White House is already working the angles. It's pushing to reinstate tariffs under different legal authority, specifically Section 122, Section 301, and Section 232 of existing trade law. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent floated a July timeline for tariffs potentially returning to pre-ruling levels.

In other words: companies may get a refund with one hand and a new tariff bill with the other.

Here's where it gets spicy. Many businesses passed tariff costs directly onto customers. Those customers get nothing back automatically, and there's no portal for them.

Cue the lawyers.

Class action suits have been filed against Costco $COST ( ▼ 0.21% ) and FedEx $FDX ( ▲ 0.35% ), arguing that any government refund should flow through to the end consumer who actually footed the bill.

The two companies are handling this very differently:

One's writing cheques. The other's promising vibes.

This refund cycle could quietly boost liquidity for retailers, manufacturers, logistics firms and small importers who absorbed tariff costs without passing them on. Watch for balance sheet improvements and margin recovery in upcoming earnings.

The wildcard: if new tariffs drop by July, that liquidity boost gets cancelled almost immediately.

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Analyst Erik Woodring is calling it a "clearing event."

Expectations are so low right now, Apple almost can't disappoint.

Here's the bull case in plain English:

This isn't just about one earnings print. Apple is heading into what Woodring calls a "seasonally strong period of outperformance."

Revenue growth could hit ~15%, driven by market share gains across multiple regions. A new iPhone is coming in September. Rumours of a foldable iPhone are already doing the rounds — and that kind of product excitement hasn't been on the table for a while.

Oh, and while every other mega-cap is burning cash on AI infrastructure? Apple's free cash flow is a flex.

The $300 question:

At 28x next year's GAAP EPS, Apple isn't cheap… but it's not exactly nose-bleed territory either. Woodring's FY27 EPS estimate sits 5% above consensus, and he sees a clear path to $300 by September on the back of modest multiple expansion and upward earnings revisions.

The setup: low expectations + strong seasonality + new product cycle. That's not a bad hand.

The U.S.-Iran nuclear talks are either happening, almost happening, or completely falling apart. Depends who you ask.

Here's the latest chaos, ranked by confusion:

VP JD Vance and a U.S. delegation are reportedly heading to Islamabad, Pakistan, on Wednesday for another round of talks with Iran. CNN says he hasn't left yet. The New York Post says he's basically already there. Nobody really knows.

Meanwhile, Trump told Fox Business on Sunday that a deal with Iran would be signed tonight. That was Sunday. We're still waiting.

He also claimed the U.S. has closed the Strait of Hormuz as part of an ongoing naval blockade. That's the waterway that handles roughly 20% of global oil shipments. No big deal or anything.

Iran's response? They announced they won't be showing up to a second round of talks, calling U.S. demands "excessive and unrealistic." Trump's team said they're heading to Pakistan anyway. Classic.

When asked what happens if a deal falls through, Trump told the Post: "It wouldn't be pretty."

So that's reassuring.

The Strait of Hormuz is the jugular vein of global oil supply. Any prolonged standoff here means energy markets stay jittery, oil prices stay elevated, and your energy stocks have a very interesting week ahead.