🫧 Dalio Thinks It's Close

Love him or hate him, Musk moves markets. His next launch hits July 22, and the smart money is already positioning. Our analyst found 3 stocks set to ride it — with entry points and a buy/sell playbook.

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The stock market just hit a record high. Most stocks weren't invited.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both closed at all-time highs on Tuesday.

But less than half of S&P 500 stocks closed above their 200-day moving average.

That's a party where the VIP room is rammed and the dance floor is empty.

And now Ray Dalio is eyeing the exit. 🧥

The Bridgewater founder says the AI bubble is getting close to bursting.

"We're in the part of the cycle that is before that, but approaching that," he said at a conference on Wednesday. "I think we're close to that."

His worry: a huge pile of debt is being taken on to fund the AI infrastructure buildout, and rates are expected to keep climbing.

Borrowed money is cheap fuel. Right up until the bill arrives.

Dalio's theory is refreshingly simple. Bubbles burst when people suddenly need cash.

He told Bloomberg News on Tuesday that the trigger comes when investors have to convert their wealth into cash to cover obligations.

His two examples: loans that need paying back, or a potential wealth tax that forces people to sell assets to pay it.

The music stops when everyone has to sell their chair to cover the rent. 🪑

The AI trade is doing almost all the heavy lifting.

Dan Russo, investment chief at Potomac Fund Management, told the WSJ that higher rates and inflation are hurting the rest of the S&P 500.

In his view, only the fortress-like balance sheets of the biggest companies are propping the market up.

Meanwhile, the bond market is flashing a warning. A Treasury selloff has pushed yields to their highest levels in two decades.

The bond market is the boring friend who's always right. Right now, it's clearing its throat.

If you own an S&P 500 index fund, a big chunk of your returns is riding on a small group of AI winners.

The label says "500." The engine room says "a handful."

Higher yields also mean safer assets pay more, which makes pricey growth stocks a tougher sell over time.

Dalio said "close." He didn't give a date. But it's worth knowing exactly what your portfolio is betting on.

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Elon Musk just told TSMC who's boss. In caps lock.

The rumour mill had TSMC taking the keys to Terafab, Musk's chipmaking project.

Musk's reply on X Wednesday: "No, we will build and run the fab. Let there be ZERO doubt about that."

Speculation online said the "likeliest deal" would have TSMC owning and running the fab.

In that version, SpaceX $SPCX ( ▼ 2.51% ) would invest in the facility or commit to buying chips. SpaceX pays, TSMC drives.

Musk read that and found the shift key.

TSMC can maybe sublease part of Terafab "if they want."

His words on anything bigger: "nothing more than that."

So the company everyone else hires to make their chips gets offered a spare room. It's like inviting Gordon Ramsay over and offering him one shelf in your fridge.

Just days ago, Musk confirmed he was in talks with TSMC about a possible collaboration around Terafab.

That confirmation came right after a report that TSMC is looking at running new chip factories in Texas.

So yes, they're talking. They just disagree on who's landlord and who's tenant. Musk has made his pick, loudly.

There's no signed deal here, only talks and posts. Still, the shape of any deal matters.

The partnership talks are real. The org chart is very much up for debate.

SpaceX wants to borrow $40 billion to go chip shopping.

The store? Nvidia. The receipt? Longer than most rockets.

According to an FT report, SpaceX $SPCX ( ▼ 2.51% ) is looking to raise $40B in debt to fund a blockbuster Nvidia $NVDA ( ▼ 0.74% ) chip order.

The split looks like this:

Pimco is among a small group of lenders in talks. When the bond kings show up, the cheque is serious.

Just don't expect delivery by Friday. The deal is expected to close in 2027.

Dan Ives at Yorkville Ives called it a "smart strategic move."

His pitch: SpaceX runs a three-way flywheel of launch, Starlink and AI. Each business either cuts costs for the other two or creates more demand for them.

And AI is where he sees the next leg of growth, as contracted cloud capacity turns into actual revenue.

He's backing that view with an Outperform rating and a $225 price target.

According to Ives, SpaceX's AI business has a problem most companies would love: demand is there, and supply is the bottleneck.

So the only questions are how fast SpaceX can bring compute online, and how it pays for it.

Option A: sell more stock. Awkward, given the IPO only happened in June. Going back to shareholders four months later is like asking guests for a loan at your own housewarming.

Option B: borrow. Ives calls debt the capital-efficient answer.

His logic: the capacity is being contracted before it's even delivered, and it starts generating revenue as soon as it's switched on. That turns a bottleneck into a scheduled build.

He also reckons Musk needs to move fast, and that investors will receive the financing well.

Wall Street lending Elon $40B to buy GPUs. What could possibly be more 2026?

For SPCX holders: no fresh shares means no dilution. The trade-off is a $40B IOU on the balance sheet, and the bet only pays off if that contracted AI demand converts on schedule.

For NVDA watchers: another sign the AI chip queue is long, and the customers in it are willing to borrow tens of billions just to get served.

Keep an eye on 2027. Until then, this is a reported plan. Signatures come later.

Home furniture brand Blu Dot blew up on CTV with help from Roku Ads Manager. Here’s how:

After a test campaign reached 211,000 households and achieved 1,010% ROAS, the brand went all in to promote its annual sales event. It removed age and income constraints to expand reach and shifted budget to custom audiences and retargeting, where intent was strongest.

The results speak for themselves. As Blu Dot increased their investment by 10x, ROAS jumped to 2,308% and more page-view conversions surpassed 50,000.

“For CTV campaigns, Roku has been a top performer,” said Claire Folkestad, Paid Media Strategist, Blu Dot. “Comping to our other platforms, we have seen really strong ROAS… and highly efficient CPMs, lower than any other CTV partner we've worked with.”

Using Roku Ads Manager, the campaign moved from a pilot to a permanent performance engine for the brand.

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