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In today’s post:
Deal or Bombs by Sunday? 💣
The Chip China Won't Let In ❌
The Fed Just Changed The Game 😲
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Deal or Bombs by Sunday? 💣
The Iran-U.S. war might be heading toward either a ceasefire agreement or a serious escalation. And apparently we'll know which by Sunday.
Trump told Axios there's a "solid 50/50" chance of either signing a good deal or hitting Iran "harder than they have ever been hit." Diplomatic as ever.
Where things stand:
Iran, the U.S., and mediator Pakistan all signaled progress in talks Saturday
A 60-day ceasefire extension is reportedly on the table, with both sides working toward a memorandum of understanding
Iran's foreign ministry says positions have been "narrowing" over the past week
CBS News separately reported the Trump administration is prepping a fresh round of military strikes — no final decision made as of Friday
So yes, we're simultaneously negotiating peace and loading the jets. Classic.
The U.S. position hasn't shifted: Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon, must hand over its highly enriched uranium, and the Strait of Hormuz stays open. Non-negotiable.
Iran's side? Nuclear talks are off the table for now. They want the war ended first, nukes second.
The Hormuz angle matters for your portfolio. The strait is still effectively closed after Iran retaliated to the initial strikes back in February. That's a key chokepoint for global oil, gas, and fertilizer flows. And markets are watching this weekend closely.
Trump is meeting with Steve Witkoff, Jared Kushner, and VP Vance Saturday afternoon to review Iran's latest offer. Expect noise by Sunday.
Pakistan's army chief is playing the quiet mediator role — meeting with Iran's foreign minister, president, and senior officials, pushing for a second round of direct U.S.-Iran talks.
TL;DR
Trump says it's 50/50 between a deal and major military escalation — decision expected by Sunday
Iran and the U.S. are reportedly close to a memorandum of understanding for a 60-day ceasefire extension
Iran won't discuss its nuclear program until the war is formally paused
The Strait of Hormuz remains closed, squeezing global energy and commodity flows
Pakistan is actively brokering a second round of direct U.S.-Iran negotiations
Trump meets Witkoff, Kushner, and Vance Saturday to review Iran's latest offer — watch for Sunday headlines
1. Play the Hormuz Squeeze
The Strait of Hormuz is still closed. Oil, gas, and fertiliser flows are disrupted. Every headline this weekend moves energy prices. And a deal or escalation will move them hard.
📌 Action: Swing trade oil ETFs like $USO ( ▼ 1.14% ) or $BNO ( ▼ 1.01% ) around Sunday's decision. Buy the rumour of war, trim on the ceasefire pop. Set tight stops.
2. Stack Energy Producers on a War Escalation
If Trump pulls the plug on talks, oil spikes and energy stocks follow. Upstream producers with Middle East exposure print when supply fears hit.
📌 Action: Watch $XLE ( ▲ 0.61% ) or individual names like $XOM ( ▼ 0.24% ) and $CVX ( ▲ 0.22% ). A breakdown in talks Sunday is your entry signal. Don't chase. Wait for the headline.
3. Defence Stocks Don't Care About Diplomacy
Deal or no deal, the U.S. just ran a months-long military operation. Defence budgets are going up regardless of Sunday's outcome.
📌 Action: Consider adding to positions in $LMT ( ▲ 2.0% ), $RTX ( ▲ 1.0% ), or $NOC ( ▲ 0.73% ). This isn't a swing trade. It's a slow, boring accumulation play that wins either way.
Everyone's watching the GPU race. The real bottleneck in AI isn't compute anymore.
There's a stock trading at 7x forward earnings that analysts expect to generate $173 billion in revenue and $102 earnings per share by FY2027.
Not a speculative bet. A company that Nvidia has physically designed into its next-generation server architecture.
The market is still pricing it like a commodity supplier. It's becoming something closer to the pipes that the entire AI industry runs through.
It's already up ~80% and it's still one of the cheapest stocks in the AI ecosystem.
Our analysis maps a clear path to $1,200 to $1,500 per share using assumptions that don't require anything aggressive. Just the market waking up to what this company actually is.
There's a consensus forecast error sitting in plain sight that almost nobody is talking about. When it gets corrected, the re-rating could be significant.
In today's Premium deep dive, we break down:
Why the current valuation makes no sense for what this company is building
The exact multiple framework we're using and what would change our mind
The consensus forecast error and why it creates an asymmetric opportunity
The three risks that could derail the thesis entirely
The specific metrics to watch each quarter to know if this is still on track
This is the kind of setup most investors miss while watching the obvious names.
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The Chip China Won't Let In ❌
Speaking to reporters at Taipei's Songshan airport ahead of Computex, Nvidia's CEO confirmed that his $200B total addressable market projection for its new "Vera" CPUs? Yeah, that includes China.
His exact words: "I would think so." Bullish, if understated.
Why CPUs, though?
GPUs get all the hype, but CPUs are quietly becoming the workhorses of agentic AI. The kind built for autonomous decision-making, not just answering questions. Businesses are leaning hard into it, and Nvidia wants the whole stack.
Here's the catch.
Despite having U.S. regulatory clearance, Nvidia still can't sell its H200 chip in China. Beijing hasn't signed off, and domestic chipmakers are being pushed to the front of the line.
Huang didn't hide his frustration: "H200 has been licensed to ship to China. It would be terrific to be able to serve that market."
The door is open on his end. China just isn't walking through it yet.
The bigger picture?
Huang called China "very important" and "very large." That's a $200B forecast with a major market currently locked behind a bureaucratic door.
If that door opens, the upside is already baked into the thesis.
TL;DR
Jensen Huang confirmed China is included in Nvidia's $200B CPU market forecast
The projection covers "Vera" CPUs, which are becoming critical for agentic AI workloads
Nvidia has U.S. clearance to sell its H200 chip in China — but not Chinese approval
Beijing is prioritising domestic chipmakers, blocking H200 sales for now
Huang openly flagged China as a key market and hinted at frustration with the holdup
If the H200 gets the green light in China, there's meaningful upside already in the model
The Fed Just Changed The Game 😲
Gold had a rough week. Blame the dollar, the Fed, and the usual Middle East chaos.
Gold futures finished Friday in the red, dragged down by a stronger dollar and rising rate fears as the U.S.-Iran standoff shows no signs of wrapping up.
Here's the problem: no deal = sustained high oil prices = inflation stays sticky = the Fed might actually hike again.
Yes, hike. As in, the opposite of what everyone was praying for.
The Fed is changing its tune
Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who was practically a rate-cut evangelist not long ago, did a full 180 on Friday.
He said the Fed should be just as ready to raise rates as cut them, pointing to the energy shock from the Middle East as a potential inflation trigger.
He's not pulling the trigger yet. But he made it clear: if inflation doesn't start cooling soon, a hike is on the table.
Gold pays no interest. Higher rates make it less attractive. You can do the math.
American consumers are not okay
The University of Michigan's final May sentiment survey dropped to 44.8, down from 49.8 in April.
That's a record low.
Gasoline prices are eating into wallets, and consumers now expect prices to rise 3.9% annually over the next decade — up from 3.5% last month and the highest in seven months.
When everyday people start pricing in long-term inflation, the Fed notices. And acts.
So where does gold go from here?
Stuck in a box, basically.
Iran headlines keep a floor under prices — nobody's going full risk-on with a war simmering in the background.
But a firming dollar and rising yields keep capping any meaningful rally.
As Sucden Financial put it: dips attract buyers, rallies fall flat. Gold is range-bound until something breaks.
TL;DR
Gold fell Friday as the dollar strengthened and rate hike fears returned
The U.S.-Iran standoff is keeping energy prices high, which feeds inflation risk
Fed Governor Waller flipped hawkish, saying a rate hike is now as likely as a cut
U.S. consumer sentiment hit a record low of 44.8 in May's final reading
Long-term inflation expectations jumped to 3.9% — a seven-month high
Gold is stuck in a range: Iran fears support it, but strong yields and a strong dollar cap any upside
1. Rotate Into Inflation-Proof Assets
Consumers expect prices to rise 3.9% annually for the next decade. That's not a blip, that's a trend. Inflation expectations at seven-month highs means cash is quietly losing value while you wait.
📌 Action: Add exposure to inflation-hedging ETFs like $TIPS ( ▼ 20.0% ) or $PDBC ( ▼ 0.6% ) (commodities). If rates rise AND inflation stays sticky, these hold up better than most.
2. Play the Energy Squeeze
No Iran deal = no oil supply relief. Waller just told you energy prices could force rate hikes. That's a direct signal that energy stocks could keep running while everything else gets pressured.
📌 Action: Look at energy sector ETFs like $XLE ( ▲ 0.61% ) or individual names like $XOM ( ▼ 0.24% ) and $CVX ( ▲ 0.22% ). Hold while the Middle East stays unresolved.
3. Wait on Gold, Watch the Range
Gold isn't breaking out. It's boxed in between Iran fear support and dollar/yield resistance. Buying here without a catalyst is just paying for a stalemate.
📌 Action: Set alerts at gold's range boundaries. Buy $GLD ( ▼ 0.76% ) on a confirmed breakdown reversal or a dollar weakening catalyst. Don't chase, let the trade come to you.
What happens when the S&P moves 3% during your commute?
We are living in volatile times. While you cannot control the state of international affairs, you can position your portfolio accordingly.
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