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In today’s post:
Gold Knows Something You Don't 🧠
Why Oil Traders Can't Sleep 😴
Sell Before They Do 😱
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Gold Knows Something You Don't 🧠
Gold and silver had a choppy Friday. Small moves, lots of noise. But zoom out and both metals finished the week in the green.
Gold up 2.4% to $4,761.90/oz. Silver up 4.9% to $76.32/oz. Three straight weeks of gains for silver. Not bad.
Gold moving positive this week makes it three in a row
So what's driving it? Two words: Iran ceasefire.
The U.S. and Israel paused airstrikes. Traders exhaled. But here's the catch — the Strait of Hormuz is still blocked, and Hezbollah is still scrapping with Israel in Lebanon. This "ceasefire" is doing a lot of heavy lifting for a deal that hasn't actually fixed anything.
Think of it like putting a plaster on a broken pipe. The leak's still there.
HSBC's James Steel put it plainly: the gold bull market will return — but only once hostilities formally end and the Strait reopens. Until then? Expect volatility.
The U.S. dollar weakened for the week, which is basically a gift to gold bulls. Cheaper dollar = cheaper gold for everyone holding euros, yen, pounds. More buyers. Simple maths.
How much gold central banks have been accumulating in the past few years compared to average
On inflation: U.S. consumer prices rose at their fastest pace in nearly four years in March. War + oil = expensive everything. But oil futures dropped more than 13% this week, which takes some heat off the broader inflation story.
Longer term, the setup still looks constructive. Central banks are still buying gold, and real interest rates won't stay this high forever. The structural bid isn't going anywhere.
Short term? It's a geopolitical news ticker in metal form.
TL;DR
Gold +2.4% and silver +4.9% for the week, despite a shaky Friday
A U.S.-Iran ceasefire paused airstrikes — but the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked
HSBC says the gold bull market needs a formal end to hostilities before it resumes
A weaker dollar made gold more attractive to international buyers
U.S. inflation hit a near 4-year high in March, but oil dropped 13%+ on the week
Long-term tailwinds intact: central bank buying + rate expectations still support gold
1. Ride the Gold Structural Bid
Central banks are still buying. Real rates won't stay high forever. The long-term setup hasn't changed.
📌 Action: Add to a gold ETF like $GLD ( ▼ 0.18% ) or $SGOL ( ▼ 0.2% ) on any dip driven by ceasefire optimism. Treat pullbacks as entry points, not exit signals.
2. Stack Silver Before It Gets Noticed
Silver is up 4.9% and on a three-week run. It's got gold's safe-haven appeal plus industrial demand. Retail investors are still sleeping on it.
📌 Action: Dollar-cost average into $SLV ( ▲ 1.01% ) or $PSLV ( ▲ 1.18% ) now. Silver tends to lag gold then explode. You want to be in before that happens.
3. Play the Weak Dollar
The dollar fell this week and it's not done. A weaker dollar lifts everything priced in it — commodities, emerging markets, international equities.
📌 Action: Look at a broad commodity ETF like $PDBC ( ▼ 0.88% ) or an international equity fund like $EFA ( ▲ 0.23% ) to capture the currency tailwind without picking individual stocks.
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Why Oil Traders Can't Sleep 😴
The US and Iran are finally in the same room.
Direct talks kicked off in Islamabad on Saturday, under a two-week ceasefire. Pakistani mediators are present, but here's the upgrade: both delegations are negotiating face-to-face. No more passing notes like it's high school detention.
Iran sent its parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. The US countered with JD Vance, Steve Witkoff, and — yes — Jared Kushner. Truly a team built for the occasion.
How oil futures have moved since the start of February where it all kicked off
Why does this matter to your portfolio?
This all started six weeks ago when the US and Israel launched a military campaign against Iran in late February. Oil prices spiked hard. Tehran responded by near-totally blockading the Strait of Hormuz — the chokepoint that handles roughly 20% of global seaborne oil trade.
That's the world's oil supply running through a straw that someone's foot is on.
A ceasefire holding long enough to get both sides talking is the first real signal that the pressure valve might ease. Oil markets will be watching every sentence out of Islamabad like it's an earnings call.
Progress here = lower oil prices. Breakdown = the opposite.
TL;DR
US and Iran are now in direct face-to-face talks in Islamabad, a step up from indirect negotiations
Pakistan is hosting and mediating the talks under a two-week ceasefire
The conflict started six weeks ago with a US-Israeli military campaign against Iran
Iran responded by blockading the Strait of Hormuz, which carries ~20% of global seaborne oil
Oil prices have been elevated since the blockade began
Any diplomatic progress could move energy markets fast — in either direction
Sell Before They Do 😱
Citi Research downgraded six application software names from Buy to Neutral on Friday, and the price target cuts were brutal.
We're talking Similarweb $SMWB ( ▼ 6.05% ), Docusign $DOCU ( ▼ 5.84% ), Autodesk $ADSK ( ▼ 2.97% ), Nice $NICE ( ▼ 7.14% ), CCC Intelligent Solutions $CCCS ( ▼ 6.38% ), and Veeva Systems $VEEV ( ▼ 3.6% ) — all down on the day.
The reason? AI is coming for their lunch.
The core Citi argument is simple: these are decent businesses, but they don't have any exciting 12-month catalysts. And the AI headwinds are only going to get louder.
Analyst Tyler Radke put it plainly:
"We see risk that concerns around software application architecture, business model durability, and terminal value intensify in the months ahead."
What are they actually saying? The market is going to keep asking hard questions about whether these companies can survive an AI-first world. And none of them have great answers right now.
Here's the number that should make you sit up:
Private AI companies are on track to generate $100B+ in net-new revenue in the coming years.
The entire traditional application software market only adds around $50B in net-new annual contract value.
That's not a fair fight.
And while Citi isn't saying AI spend is directly replacing software budgets, their checks show something worth watching — software optimisation costs and vendor consolidation are ticking up.
Basically, companies are starting to ask: do we actually need all of this software?
The price target cuts tell the full story:
Similarweb: $8.50 → $3
Docusign: $99 → $50
Autodesk: $331 → $246
Nice: $184 → $119
CCC: $10 → $6
Veeva: $291 → $176
Those aren't small trims. Those are haircuts with a lawnmower.
Citi says they want to stay "agile". That’s analyst-speak for we want to be able to upgrade these fast if AI tailwinds materialise. Fair enough. But for now, the bar to stay bullish just got a lot higher.
TL;DR
Citi downgraded six software stocks — Similarweb, Docusign, Autodesk, Nice, CCC, and Veeva — from Buy to Neutral
The bank sees growing AI-related risk around business model durability and long-term software valuations
Private AI companies are projected to generate $100B+ in net-new revenue, dwarfing traditional software growth
Vendor consolidation and software cost optimisation are starting to show up in company checks
Price targets were slashed hard across the board — some by more than 40%
Citi still likes these companies long-term, but sees no compelling 12-month catalyst to stay bullish
1. Rotate Out of Legacy Software
Citi just flagged that six major software names have no exciting 12-month catalysts — and the AI pressure is only building. If you're holding any of these, the risk/reward has shifted.
📌 Action: Trim or exit positions in $DOCU ( ▼ 5.84% ), $ADSK ( ▼ 2.97% ), or $VEEV ( ▼ 3.6% ) on any short-term bounces. Redeploy into stronger names with clearer AI tailwinds.
2. Ride the AI Infrastructure Wave Instead
Private AI companies are set to generate $100B+ in net-new revenue. That money has to flow somewhere — and it flows through infrastructure first.
📌 Action: Shift exposure toward AI infrastructure plays like $NVDA ( ▲ 2.57% ), $PLTR ( ▼ 1.86% ), or the $BOTZ ( ▲ 1.46% ) ETF. These are where the budgets are going.
3. Watch for the Dip Entry on Quality Names
Citi still likes these companies long-term — they just don't have near-term catalysts. Heavy sell-offs on quality names like $VEEV ( ▼ 3.6% ) or $ADSK ( ▼ 2.97% ) could create a future buying opportunity at a much better price.
📌 Action: Add these to a watchlist. Set price alerts 15–20% below current levels. Let the fear do the work for you.