Gov’s Secret $400M Gamble 🎲

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GOV’S SECRET $400M GAMBLE 🎲 

The U.S. government just slid into the stock market like I slide into your girls DMs.

According to The Information, the Trump administration is in talks to take equity stakes in multiple critical minerals companies.

What does that actually mean? Uncle Sam is tossing cash at miners so America doesn’t have to beg other countries for battery materials.

Here’s how it’s going down:

• The Department of Energy is using grants and loans to grease the wheels.

• The focus is on companies that mine and process the metals needed for batteries.

• And yes, the government actually wants equity. As in shares, as in stonks.

The Test Run: MP Materials

Back in July, the U.S. government got a 15% stake in MP Materials for $400M.

Investors noticed. MP stock popped +11.6% in one day and nearly hit an all-time high.

Everyone Wants a Piece

Once Uncle Sam started swiping the government card, the whole sector started moonwalking.

• Aclara Resources: +18.2%

• NioCorp Developments: +11.7%

• Ucore Rare Metals: +9.7%

• USA Rare Earth: +8.8%

• Critical Metals: +8.3%

• TMC the metals company: +6.5%

• Ramaco Resources: +3.1%

• Rare Element Resources: +1.5%

• Lynas Rare Earths: +1.3%

It’s like every miner suddenly remembered they had “critical” in their name.

Lithium Goes Nuclear

Lithium Americas nearly doubled in 24 hours after word got out that the government might snag up to a 10% stake.

Yes, doubled. As in two-times. As in hold-my-beer-watch-this kind of move.

The Global Angle

It’s not just the U.S. G7 members and the EU are cooking up price floors to boost rare earth production and considering taxes on Chinese exports.

The goal: make Western rare earth supply chains less dependent on Beijing’s metal monopoly.

TL;DR

• The U.S. is taking actual equity stakes in critical mineral companies.

• MP Materials deal set the stage with a $400M purchase for 15%.

• Sector stocks are ripping: Aclara up 18%, NioCorp up 12%, etc.

• Lithium Americas doubled on government interest.

• G7 + EU also looking to push rare earth production and loosen China’s grip.

1. Ride the Rare Earth Hype
Gov equity stakes = free marketing for miners. Stocks like MP Materials and Aclara already ripped, but attention stays hot.
📌 Action: Build positions in U.S. rare earth ETFs like $REMX ( ▲ 5.77% ) to capture sector-wide upside.

2. Bet on Lithium’s Boom
Lithium Americas nearly doubled on rumors of a 10% gov stake. Demand is only growing as EVs scale.
📌 Action: Dollar-cost average into lithium plays like $LAC ( ▲ 31.78% )  (Lithium Americas) or $SGML ( ▲ 10.31% )  (Sigma Lithium) before the next government-backed rocket.

3. Play the Western Supply Push
G7 + EU moves to undercut China signal long-term support for non-Chinese supply chains. That’s sustained tailwinds for miners outside China.
📌 Action: Add exposure to $LYSDY ( ▲ 7.32% )  (Lynas Rare Earths) or $NB ( ▲ 17.46% )  (NioCorp) as strategic long-term holds benefiting from new policy support.

GUESS WHO’S BACK FROM THE DEAD! 👻 

$INTC ( ▼ 1.26% ) stock jumped 8.8% today. That caps a 37% run since mid-September and a monster 69% climb so far this year.

For context…

• Philly Semiconductor Index: +26% YTD

• S&P 500: +12% YTD

Intel is outlifting the gym bros. The weird part? Most other chip stocks were flat or down the same day.

• TSMC: -1.5%

• AMD: +0.1%

• Nvidia: +0.3%

• Broadcom: -0.9%

• Qualcomm: -2.2%
  Only Marvell kept up with a +4.6% gain.

Why the rocket fuel?

Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan has been collecting big checks like Pokémon cards.

• SoftBank dropped $2B

• The U.S. government grabbed a 10% stake

• Nvidia wrote a $5B check

Even Nvidia is bankrolling its rival.

The rumor mill is spinning

Whispers are out that Intel is talking to Apple about a possible deal. Also resurfacing is chatter about a joint venture with TSMC to run foundry operations. The Wall Street Journal echoed that again this week.

And PCs aren’t dead yet

Micron just said the PC market looks healthier than expected. Windows 11 upgrades plus a wave of AI-powered PCs are fueling demand. PC shipments are now expected to grow at a mid-single-digit clip in 2025 instead of the sad low-single-digit outlook from before.

Intel went from washed-up relic to main character. The market loves it, and right now the stock is flexing harder than anyone else in the chip space.

TL;DR:

• Intel stock is up 69% YTD, crushing the broader market.

• Money is flowing in from SoftBank, the U.S. government, and Nvidia.

• Rumors of Apple and TSMC partnerships are adding hype.

• PC demand is improving thanks to Windows 11 and AI. Intel is suddenly the comeback kid.

1. Ride Intel’s Comeback Momentum
Intel is up 69% YTD with fresh funding from SoftBank, the U.S. gov, and Nvidia. Rumors of Apple/TSMC deals add fuel. The market is rewarding the turnaround story.
📌 Action: Add/accumulate $INTC ( ▼ 1.26% ) on dips while momentum is strong. Target mid-term gains as the comeback narrative builds.

2. Position for the PC Revival
Micron sees PC shipments growing mid-single digits in 2025 thanks to Windows 11 upgrades + AI PCs. Intel’s biggest revenue driver (PCs) benefits directly.
📌 Action: Gain exposure via $INTC ( ▼ 1.26% ) and suppliers leveraged to PC demand (e.g., $MU ( ▲ 2.28% ) ). Hold through 2025 demand cycle.

3. Play the Foundry & Partnership Angle
Rumors of Intel + Apple and Intel + TSMC partnerships could re-rate Intel’s foundry business. Any confirmation could push shares further.
📌 Action: Track news flow. Build a position before official JV or partnership announcements. Take profit on announcement-driven spikes.

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