😬 Great Quarter, Scary Bill

At $1.75 trillion, SpaceX is now worth more than Coca-Cola, Disney, and Netflix combined — a company with no public earnings track record and a $135 price tag set by the people selling it to you.

Do the math. To justify that valuation, SpaceX would have to grow into one of the largest companies on Earth before you ever see a profit. History is brutal on day-one IPO buyers who pay that kind of premium. Most are underwater within a year.

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Alphabet's cloud business just grew 82% in a year.

Google Cloud pulled in $24.8B for the quarter, beating estimates by more than $2B. Last quarter it was growing 63%. Now 82%. The acceleration is the story.

Here's what happened 👇

Total revenue hit $119.8B, up 24% year-over-year, nearly $3B above what analysts expected. That's twelve straight quarters of double-digit growth.

The engine? AI infrastructure. Enterprises are renting Google's servers to run their own AI, and the meter is spinning fast.

Segment margins tell the real tale: Cloud's operating margin jumped to roughly 36%, up from about 21% a year ago. It went from "expensive science project" to "actually prints money."

The rest of the empire held up too:

Here's where you need your skeptic hat.

Net income more than tripled to $112.1B, or $9.11 per share, a 294% explosion. Sounds incredible. It's mostly a mirage.

Around $98B of that was an unrealized gain on equity securities. Paper profit. Money on a screen, not in the bank. One analyst pegs it at $6.26 per share of pure accounting sunshine.

Strip it out and you get operating EPS of $2.85, which actually missed the $2.91 analysts wanted. So the "beat" and the "miss" are both true, depending on which number you trust. The real business did fine. The headline just wore a costume.

Then there's the spending.

Capex hit $44.9B for the quarter, and free cash flow went negative at –$5.9B. Alphabet is now burning more cash building AI than its operations bring in.

And they're not slowing down. FY26 capex is guided at $195B to $200B. For context, that's more than the entire GDP of Hungary, spent on servers.

The market barely blinked, and that tells you something. Investors saw explosive cloud growth and shrugged, because the costs are getting scary and Alphabet didn't report its order backlog, the number that hints at future revenue.

The tension is simple: monster growth versus a monster tab. One analyst still likes it at 24x earnings. The market wants proof the spending turns into profit before it cheers.

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Tesla $TSLA ( ▼ 1.3% ) just posted its best quarter ever. The stock dropped anyway.

Record revenue. Record deliveries. And then a number nobody wanted to see.

For the first time in two years, Tesla's free cash flow went negative. The culprit? A cool $5.8 billion in capex that landed like an anvil.

Here's the thing

Tesla spent big. Really big.

Musk isn't apologizing for it. He called this a "massive" capex year and promised "incredible" returns down the line.

The unpspoken words: trust me, bro, the money printer boots up later.

Whether investors buy that is a different question. Right now they're staring at the first negative cash flow since 2023 and doing the math on faith.

The call wasn't really about cars. It was about everything else Tesla swears is coming.

On robotaxis, Musk said miles driven will keep scaling more than 10% per week. He also flagged the obvious risk: one injury crash and the headlines write themselves.

Tesla is now building data center hardware.

It's called Megapod, and it's a box that pairs an x86 computer with Tesla's own AI4 chip for heavy AI computing.

The plan gets weirder in a fun way: stick these Megapods at Superchargers and run distributed AI off the charging network. A car company becoming an AI infrastructure play.

Tesla is asking investors to look past a rough cash quarter and buy the story instead. Robotaxis, robots, AI boxes.

The bull case is that the $5.8B builds the future. The bear case is that "incredible returns" keep living in the future while the cash burns in the present.

Big spending years reward patience or punish it. Rarely anything in between.

The White House says Chinese startup Moonshot AI built its viral Kimi K3 model by secretly copying Anthropic's Fable. And they didn't whisper it. They posted it on X.

Here's there accusation:

Michael Kratsios, Trump's top science guy, dropped the claim Wednesday morning. His words: Moonshot distilled Anthropic's Fable to build K3.

"Distillation" sounds fancy. It's basically using a smart model's answers to train your own cheaper one. Copying homework, but with GPUs.

Done small and in public, it's legal and everyone does it. Done covertly at industrial scale, it's the thing everyone objects to.

And Kratsios says Moonshot went full industrial. He claims they built a whole internal platform to run large-scale distillation against US models, switching access routes constantly to dodge detection.

They allegedly built a machine whose only job was to rip off American AI without getting caught.

It gets spicier. Kratsios also says Moonshot got its hands on Nvidia GB300 servers and tapped GB300s in Thailand, probably to train its models.

Small problem: those are Nvidia's top chips, and China is banned from buying them. So the workaround was apparently "just use them in Thailand instead."

This isn't Moonshot's first rodeo. Back in February, Anthropic said Moonshot used hundreds of fake accounts to funnel over 3.4 million Claude conversations, testing its coding, reasoning, and vision.

Then last week, K3 landed. At 2.8 trillion parameters, it's the biggest open-weight model ever released. That's the entire model, free for anyone to download and run.

And it's not a toy. K3 has matched or beaten Anthropic and OpenAI's best frontier models in benchmarks, models that likely cost billions to build.

Which is the whole controversy in one line: why spend billions when you can allegedly copy the answers?

If you're anywhere near Nvidia, AI, or China tech stocks, this is the fight to watch.

The US is already loading the cannon. No penalties have dropped yet, and Moonshot hasn't said a word. The full K3 weights go public by July 27.

Sanctions on Chinese open-weight models are now openly on the table. That's the kind of headline that yanks chip stocks around for reasons that have nothing to do with earnings.