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In today’s post:
📉 He Says SpaceX Is Worth $30
💰 The $1M/Month AI Problem
🗒 America's $3.1T Homework Copy
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📉 He Says SpaceX Is Worth $30
Shares are down 28% from their post-IPO peak above $200. And veteran investor George Noble thinks the pain is just getting started.
His take? Brutal.
"The largest IPO in history is also shaping up to be the largest exit liquidity operation in history."
He thinks the IPO was built to separate retail investors from their money.
The valuation problem
Noble (the guy who helped launch Fidelity's Overseas Fund, so not exactly a random guy on X) says the math never made sense.
SpaceX priced its IPO at $135. That's 90x revenue.
After the debut pop? Nearly 140x revenue.
For context, that's like paying $1.4 million for a corner shop that makes $10k a year. Sure, the shop might one day colonise Mars. But still.
The "manufactured squeeze"
Here's where it gets spicy.
Noble says the early rally had nothing to do with fundamentals. Fewer than 5% of shares were actually available to trade after the IPO.
Then SpaceX got fast-tracked into the Nasdaq 100 and Russell indexes.
That meant index funds and ETFs were forced to buy billions of dollars of stock. No choice. No opinion. Just mandatory buying into a tiny float.
"The supply was minuscule and the buying was mandatory. That's a manufactured squeeze."
Tiny supply + forced demand = a rocket that had nothing to do with rockets.
Now for the reversal
The lockup schedule is the ticking clock here.
Insider share unlocks start after Q2 earnings and roll out in stages through year-end. The final tranche lands in June 2027.
Every unlock means employees and early investors can finally sell. The tradable float balloons.
Noble's argument: forget fundamentals. The unlock calendar is the stock's real catalyst for the next few months.
The kicker
Noble says Starlink is the only part of SpaceX that consistently makes money. And it doesn't come close to justifying the market cap.
His fair value estimate? $30 a share.
His verdict? "The most grossly overpriced stock at scale that I have ever seen."
SpaceX closed Friday around $145. That's roughly $10 above the IPO price. And about $115 above where Noble thinks it belongs.
Ouch.
One legendary investor says it's worth $30, not $145. Where do you stand?
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Everyone's still arguing about Tesla. Meanwhile, the world's biggest EV maker just went on sale.
There's a company that shipped 98.8% more cars overseas last month than a year ago. It's on pace to smash its own 1.5 million vehicle export target. And its home market share? Still #1, at 22.3%.
The stock is down 45%.
That's not a typo. The market has priced this thing at 0.81x forward sales while Tesla trades at 14.44x for slower earnings growth. On a growth-adjusted basis, it's roughly a third of the sector's average price tag.
This isn't some cash-burning startup praying for scale. It builds its own batteries, its own chips, its own everything. It's the machine Tesla actually loses sleep over.
Q2 deliveries just jumped 79.4% in a single quarter. The bottom, at $9.20, may already be in.
And earnings land in a matter of weeks. Once that report confirms the turnaround, the discount closes and you're chasing.
In today's Premium+ deep dive, we break down:
Why the 45% crash is a mispricing, not a warning
The exact entry zones we're watching between…
The balance sheet problem that could wreck the whole thesis (it's real, and we size it up honestly)
The one margin number in the upcoming print that confirms or kills the trade
💰 The $1M/Month AI Problem
The latest AI models just dropped, and the sales pitch has changed.
Forget "our robot is the smartest." The new line is "our robot won't bankrupt you."
The efficiency arms race
This past week, OpenAI, Meta, and Elon Musk's xAI all unveiled new models built around one word: efficiency.
Here's the scoreboard:
OpenAI's GPT-5.6 does more work while burning fewer tokens (the units AI processing gets billed in)
xAI's Grok 4.5 claims roughly double the token efficiency of rivals
Meta is signalling it will price its latest model aggressively
Why the sudden obsession with frugality?
Because the customers are screaming.
Companies spent the last two years telling everyone to use AI for everything.
Then the invoices arrived.
Some firms are now reporting monthly AI bills in the millions. Usage-based pricing turned "let the interns play with chatbots" into a line item the CFO circles in red.
It's like giving your teenager a credit card for "emergencies" and finding out emergencies include DoorDash. Every day. Twice.
So management teams are asking the annoying question: what's the actual ROI here?
It leaves AI labs stuck in an awkward spot.
They need to charge less to keep customers happy. But they also need to pay for the data centers, chips, and infrastructure they've spent obscene amounts of money building.
Cheap for you. Ruinously expensive for them. What could go wrong?
OpenAI has already rolled out spending controls and analytics tools so customers can watch their usage like a hawk. Meta is arguing top-tier AI should simply cost less than rivals charge.
The budget competition is circling
Chinese developers like DeepSeek are winning fans with cheap open models. Not the smartest kids in class, but perfectly capable of handling routine business grunt work.
Meanwhile, platforms like OpenRouter let companies shop across hundreds of models by price and performance. Basically a comparison site for robots.
All this puts heat on Anthropic.
Its flagship models are widely seen as the industry's best. They're also among the priciest per task, according to Artificial Analysis benchmarking.
Musk pounced on exactly that while hyping Grok 4.5, calling it comparable to Anthropic's top models but faster and cheaper to run.
Being the best is great. Being the best and the most expensive during a corporate cost-cutting frenzy?
That's a tougher pitch.
Best model vs cheapest model. You're the CFO. Pick one.
🗒 America's $3.1T Homework Copy
America's retirement system is wobbling like a Jenga tower in an earthquake.
So Trump is doing what any of us would do: copying the smart kid's homework.
That smart kid? Australia.
What's the deal Down Under?
Aussie employers are legally required to stuff 12% of every worker's salary into privately managed retirement accounts.
No opting out. No "I'll start saving next year." Just automatic wealth-building.
The result? A $3.1 trillion pension pool on track to become one of the biggest on Earth.
Not bad for a country with fewer people than Texas.
Why is Trump suddenly interested?
Because the US retirement picture looks rough:
Social Security's trust fund is projected to run dry by 2032
The median Vanguard 401(k) balance? A whopping $44,000
Millions of workers don't even have access to a workplace plan
$44K won't fund a retirement. It'll fund a decent used car.
Trump has asked Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick to study the Aussie model, saying "It's really worked out very well" and that he'll take it to Congress.
Who's cheering?
BlackRock CEO Larry Fink, who met with Trump last week and has been banging the Australia drum for years.
Senator Ted Cruz called the idea "exactly right" and says he's drafting legislation to expand retirement savings.
When the world's biggest asset manager loves a plan involving privately managed accounts... well, connect the dots.
The catch?
Copying Australia isn't a copy-paste job.
The US still owes trillions in existing Social Security promises. And employers might not love being forced to hand over 12% of payroll.
That's a fight lobbyists dream about.
The White House says it's early days. Trump says his team might take the Aussie plan and make it "a little bit sharper, a little bit better."
Don't expect kangaroo-style retirement accounts by Christmas.