Iran Blinked. Trump Didn't 👀

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The Iran ceasefire is on life support. Trump called their peace proposal "a piece of garbage." And the Strait of Hormuz is still basically closed.

Not great vibes.

Here's where things stand:

Trump declared the month-long U.S.-Iran ceasefire is on "massive life support" after Tehran's latest proposal landed on his desk and he reportedly didn't even finish reading it.

Iran's offer? Lift the naval blockade. Drop sanctions. Guarantee no more strikes. Oh, and let Iran keep some control over the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump's response: "Totally unacceptable."

Why does this matter to your portfolio?

The Strait of Hormuz used to carry roughly one-fifth of the world's oil and LNG before all this kicked off. It's still largely blocked.

Oil prices $USO ( ▲ 3.8% ) $BNO ( ▲ 3.6% ) are staying elevated. That's not a surprise when the world's most important energy chokepoint is playing host to a geopolitical standoff.

Meanwhile, "Project Freedom" might be back.

Trump is weighing a revival of the initiative, which would escort neutral ships through the Strait. It launched last week, got paused when peace talks started, and now looks set for a comeback with a broader mandate.

No final decision yet. But the fact it's back on the table tells you everything about how optimistic the White House is feeling.

The non-negotiable for Trump?

Iran must explicitly commit to no nuclear weapons before any deal gets signed.

Tehran's latest letter didn't include that. So here we are.

1. Ride the Oil Supply Squeeze
The Strait of Hormuz is still blocked, and one-fifth of global oil and LNG has nowhere to go. Until a deal gets signed, supply stays tight and prices stay elevated.

📌 Action: Hold or add to oil ETFs like $USO ( ▲ 3.8% ) or $BNO ( ▲ 3.6% ). If talks collapse further, expect another leg up. Take profit on any ceasefire headline spike.

2. Stack Energy Producers
Blocked supply plus elevated oil prices is a gift for U.S. energy companies printing cash right now. They don't need the Strait open. In fact, they'd rather it stayed shut.

📌 Action: Look at integrated majors like $XOM ( ▲ 3.54% ) or $CVX ( ▲ 1.72% ), or the broader energy ETF $XLE ( ▲ 2.64% ). These names benefit directly from sustained high oil prices.

3. Hedge With Defence Exposure
Trump is reviving Project Freedom, military escorts are back on the table, and this standoff isn't ending this week. Defence spending isn't slowing down.

📌 Action: Consider ETFs like $ITA ( ▲ 1.12% ) (aerospace & defence) or names like $LMT ( ▲ 1.13% ) and $RTX ( ▲ 1.43% ). Geopolitical heat is their tailwind.

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The guy who called Nvidia before it 80x has a new idea.

Josh Wolfe co-founded Lux Capital. In 2016, he publicly called Nvidia at a kids' charity conference in Chicago. His argument: the narrative would shift from gaming to simulation and AI.

It returned 80x.

So when Wolfe says he has his third conviction call, you probably want to hear it.

The idea is called "lifecording."

The idea? Wearable devices will record your daily life — audio first, then video — while AI continuously processes, summarises and surfaces connections you'd never catch yourself.

Think of it as a second brain strapped to your wrist. Except it actually works.

Wolfe says he's near-certain this trend arrives through a wave of acquisitions and product launches. He's pointing to Meta buying the Limitless pendant, Amazon's Bee wearable, and the OpenAI/Jony Ive device project as the opening shots.

Wall Street doesn't have a name for this yet. That, he says, is the entire point.

Wolfe's playbook doesn't bet on who wins the device war. It bets on whoever sells the bullets.

He calls it the "arms dealer" trade. Back the component suppliers that profit regardless of which platform dominates. Same logic drove his second conviction call: SK Hynix, Micron $MU ( ▲ 6.5% ) and Samsung $SSNLF ( ▲ 116.8% ) in 2024, when he spotted the narrative shift from commodity memory to coveted HBM attach rates.

For lifecording, he allocated a model $2M across nine positions:

Every name maps to a specific layer of the wearable hardware stack. This isn't a vibe trade. It's a supply chain thesis dressed up as a basket.

Wolfe's highest-conviction name was $HIMX ( ▲ 16.08% )… and it's already making him look smart.

Himax surged ~30% on May 7 after smashing Q1 2026 guidance. Baird followed up by tripling its price target from $10 to $30. The stock was up another 8% in Monday premarket after an 11% Friday.

Most names in the basket had sub-$5B market caps at entry. That's the sweet spot. Small enough that institutions haven't piled in yet, big enough to move when demand arrives.

Worth noting: all positions are held in Wolfe's personal account, not the Lux fund.

The man who called the 2008 housing crash is back on his Substack, and he's not exactly popping champagne.

"The market has jumped the shark," Burry wrote, suggesting the recent rally has sent stocks into fantasy territory while the real risks quietly stack up.

Wall Street's been on a tear lately. Strong earnings, fading geopolitical tension, whispers of a US-Iran deal. Investors are feeling themselves.

But here's the thing: no deal has actually been signed. The optimism is running ahead of the facts.

Now, the plot twist.

While Burry's waving the red flag with one hand, he's buying with the other.

He confirmed he picked up a full position in MercadoLibre $MELI ( ▼ 4.61% ) last week, scooping shares in the $1,600s after the stock face-planted 12.7% on Friday following earnings.

So why MELI? A few reasons:

Burry says MELI is now below his "IV15" price — his threshold for expecting 15%+ annualised returns over 15+ years.

That's a big conviction bet.

MELI recovered 0.5% in premarket Monday. Baby steps.