🛢️ Iran Shipped 0 Barrels

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Iran shipped exactly zero barrels of crude in September.

Before the war it was moving ~1.7 million barrels a day. In August, ~250,000. Then the U.S. naval blockade shut off the tap completely.

Bloomberg, Kpler and Vortexa all counted the same number: zero.

Meanwhile, Iran is still keeping the world's most important oil chokepoint closed to normal traffic.

On Sunday, Iran's chief negotiator Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said the Strait of Hormuz won't reopen until the U.S. meets seven conditions from a June memorandum.

Iran's offer at the UN General Assembly: meet them and ships could flow again within seven days.

Washington replied last week through Qatar, which has become the region's unofficial group-chat admin.

The sticking point? Who goes first. The seven-day plan covers both Hormuz and Iran's nuclear program, and neither side wants to make the first move.

Iran also denied reports that it offered nuclear inspections in exchange for sanctions relief. On the same day, its army said it plans to extend the range of its missiles.

Diplomacy, but make it spicy. 🌶️

Here's the twist: Middle East crude exports are back to 98% of pre-war levels.

J.P. Morgan puts them at 17.5M barrels a day on a 10-day average. Kpler says at least 16.5M barrels a day left the Gulf in September. That's 10.5M more than March, when the war first choked supply.

How? The region built itself three exits:

Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline is doing a lot of the heavy lifting. Much of the crude that still crosses Hormuz gets moved onto shuttle tankers or transferred ship to ship along the way.

Iran is still selling to Chinese refineries from floating storage east of Singapore. Treasury Secretary Bessent estimates that supply runs out later this month.

The upshot: WTI November futures have fallen two weeks in a row.

Crude oil has mostly recovered. The fuels people actually burn have not.

J.P. Morgan estimates Middle East diesel, gasoline and jet fuel flows at 3M barrels a day, only 58% of pre-war levels. The causes are damaged infrastructure and the higher risk of shipping highly flammable cargo through a war zone.

The barrels came back. The refined fuel didn't.

Before the war, about one-fifth of the world's oil and LNG went through Hormuz. That's why every headline from Tehran moves markets.

The thing to watch is whether Washington and Tehran can agree on who goes first.

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The White House now has a "Super Intelligence Force."

Yes, that's the actual name. No, there are no capes. (We checked.)

Trump has tapped Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton to lead it. The spy chief is now the AI chief too.

Clayton only became intelligence director in August. Now he's running a panel with 120 days to deliver AI recommendations.

That's roughly one earnings season plus change. Practically light speed by government standards.

The brief covers three things:

The sneaky important detail: the panel will suggest how the government can respond better using legal authority it already has.

In simple terms? Some of this might not need Congress at all. If you've watched Congress try to pass anything lately, that's a feature.

This isn't a token committee. Look who's in the room:

When Defense and Treasury both pull up a chair, AI is officially a security issue and a money issue at the same time.

Researchers and lawmakers from both parties have been sounding alarms about advanced AI causing serious harm.

The administration, meanwhile, has mostly resisted rules that could slow US development. Trump frames AI as a race with China, and argues heavy regulation would hobble American tech.

He also recently rejected the idea of joint AI governance with Chinese President Xi Jinping. So that group chat is not happening.

Which leaves the big question: does Washington tighten the leash on AI, or keep it long?

Circle the calendar. This review is a 120-day policy catalyst for tech stocks.

The recommendations could hit:

If the panel comes back with serious safety, security or reporting requirements, those sectors could feel it. New rules usually mean new costs, and markets price that in fast.

If it sticks with the light-touch approach, expect a shrug and business as usual.

Keep an eye on cybersecurity. A push on incident reporting puts the people who detect and defend against attacks right in the spotlight.

Either way, in about four months we find out whether AI's free-range era gets a fence. 🐂

The Fed's office makeover cost $2.4 billion.

That's nearly double the original estimate. Anyone who's ever renovated a kitchen is nodding very slowly right now.

And now the White House wants the man who ran the place to leave the building entirely.

The Fed's inspector general dropped its verdict on Sept. 30:

Nobody broke the law. Someone just really, really missed the budget.

Kevin Hassett, head of the National Economic Council, says Jerome Powell should quit the Fed's board.

His pitch on Fox News Sunday: "it's time for him to move on and to respect the independence of the Fed."

Respecting Fed independence by asking a Fed governor to leave. Markets will be chewing on that one for a while.

Trump went further, saying Powell "should be forced to resign from the Board."

Meanwhile, Attorney General Todd Blanche said Friday the DOJ won't reopen a criminal investigation based on the report.

The catch? Prosecutors could still act if a separate audit turns up criminal conduct. Case closed. Sequel pending.

Yep. Kevin Warsh took over as chair in May, but Powell stayed on as a governor.

That means he still gets a vote on interest rates.

This is unusual. Former chairs typically leave the board when they hand over the top job.

Powell has said threats of investigations into him and the Fed were part of why he stuck around. Hard to call that a peaceful handover.

Last month, the Fed unanimously raised rates by a quarter point.

Hassett opposed the hike but defended the Fed's right to make it: "I disagree with that decision, but we respect that he was doing that for the right reasons."

Trump said Warsh should make his own calls, then told Time: "I probably would have voted against the board if I were him."

Everyone respects independence. Everyone also has notes.

Fed independence is one of the things bond, currency and stock markets watch most closely.

When investors start wondering who's really steering rates, that uncertainty tends to show up in prices. Think bond yields, the dollar, and your mortgage quote.

The backdrop isn't calm either. The Fed is facing persistent inflation and rising borrowing costs.

Powell's vote didn't swing anything last month, since the hike was unanimous. But in a close future vote, every seat counts. That's why a fight over a building has rate-watchers paying attention.

Home furniture brand Blu Dot blew up on CTV with help from Roku Ads Manager. Here’s how:

After a test campaign reached 211,000 households and achieved 1,010% ROAS, the brand went all in to promote its annual sales event. It removed age and income constraints to expand reach and shifted budget to custom audiences and retargeting, where intent was strongest.

The results speak for themselves. As Blu Dot increased their investment by 10x, ROAS jumped to 2,308% and more page-view conversions surpassed 50,000.

“For CTV campaigns, Roku has been a top performer,” said Claire Folkestad, Paid Media Strategist, Blu Dot. “Comping to our other platforms, we have seen really strong ROAS… and highly efficient CPMs, lower than any other CTV partner we've worked with.”

Using Roku Ads Manager, the campaign moved from a pilot to a permanent performance engine for the brand.

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