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In today’s post:
😬 Markets Haven’t Price This
🏠 Meta Just Became A Landlord
⛽ No Warehouse. No Hot Dogs.
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😬 Markets Haven’t Price This
The US just hit Iran's Revolutionary Guard directly. For the first time in this entire conflict.
Airstrikes went in Sunday, targeting IRGC coastal surveillance, air defences, maritime assets, and missile and drone storage sites.
The trigger: an attack in Jordan that killed two American service members and wounded four more.
🎯 What Changed?
For a week, Washington has been striking "Iranian infrastructure" and keeping the language vague.
Now US Central Command is naming the Revolutionary Guard as the target. That's a deliberate escalation, on paper and in public.
And Iran is not de-escalating either:
Kuwait and Bahrain scrambled air defences Sunday against incoming Iranian drones and missiles
Iranian media threatened airports and ports in Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Fujairah
The UAE publicly warned Tehran off civilian infrastructure
The Gulf Cooperation Council's secretary-general accused Iran of war crimes for targeting civilian facilities
🕊️ The Off-Ramp Just Collapsed
There was an interim agreement meant to wind this down.
Tehran has suspended its commitments. The deal is, for now, dead.
The human cost so far, per both sides:
16 US service members killed, more than 430 wounded since the conflict began
Iran says recent US strikes killed at least 50 people and wounded more than 500
💰 Why Your Portfolio Cares
This started around the Strait of Hormuz. It has now spread to the entire Gulf.
Kuwait, Bahrain and the UAE are three of the most important nodes in global energy and shipping. When drones are flying over them, oil supply risk stops being theoretical.
Threats against Dubai and Abu Dhabi matter beyond oil too. That's aviation, logistics, and a huge chunk of global trade routing through one increasingly nervous neighbourhood.
Markets have priced plenty of Middle East flare-ups before. What they haven't priced is a US-Iran conflict with no working ceasefire mechanism. That's the piece to watch this week: not the strikes themselves, but whether anyone rebuilds the off-ramp.
Has this conflict changed how you're investing?
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Everyone's panicking about Nvidia. Almost nobody understands why it's actually falling.
Here's what the headlines missed: GPU rentals dropped 31% in three weeks. Not because demand died. Because of a $3.9 billion acquisition most investors have never heard of, and a chip that took just nine months to build.
Meanwhile the stock trades at 23x forward earnings. Cheaper than the average semiconductor company. With Wall Street pencilling in $559 billion of revenue by FY2028.
Something doesn't add up. Either the market knows something the analysts don't, or 58 of 61 of them are right and this is a ~50% upside setup hiding in plain sight.
We spent this week pulling the thread. What we found changes how you should think about every AI stock you own, because the real bottleneck isn't chips anymore. It's something far harder to fix.
Q2 earnings land soon. The one number everyone will watch is the wrong one. We'll tell you the three things that actually matter.
In today's Premium+ deep dive:
The under-the-radar deal quietly dissolving Nvidia's famous moat (and why the timing is surgical)
The physical constraint that caps AI growth no matter how many GPUs get sold
Our verdict: buy the fear or take the exit, with the exact tripwire that would flip our call
What to listen for on the Q2 call while everyone else stares at the revenue number
🏠 Meta Just Became A Landlord
Meta might be about to become Anthropic's landlord.
The two are reportedly in talks on a $10 billion deal that would see Meta rent out its cloud computing power to run Anthropic's Claude models, per The New York Times.
The deal would run for two years. That's $5 billion a year, roughly what some countries spend on their entire military, just to keep chatbots humming.
🏗️ Wait, Since When Does Meta Sell Cloud?
Since about two weeks ago, apparently.
Earlier this month, word got out that Meta is building a whole cloud business out of its spare AI compute. Zuckerberg ordered so many GPUs he's now got leftovers worth renting.
And "so many" is doing heavy lifting here: Meta's AI infrastructure spend is set to hit $125 to $145 billion in 2026.
For scale, that's more than the annual GDP of Morocco. On data centers. In one year.
The internal codename for the project? Meta Compute. Ten out of ten for effort, naming team.
🤝 The Frenemy Economics
Yes, this is Meta, an AI lab, selling compute to Anthropic, a rival AI lab.
Welcome to the AI era, where everyone competes with everyone and also invoices everyone.
SpaceX already ran this exact play, cutting similar deals with Anthropic and Google for its excess data center capacity. Meta is just following the playbook.
The bigger plan looks a lot like Amazon's Bedrock: host a menu of AI models on your own infrastructure, charge for access, collect rent forever.
🧠 The Bigger Picture
AI capex has been the scariest line item in Big Tech earnings. Investors keep asking when these hundred-billion-dollar bets pay off.
Turning idle GPUs into a $10 billion revenue stream is one answer.
If Meta can spin its overbuild into an AWS-style business, that spending stops looking like a money bonfire and starts looking like an asset. AWS is Amazon's profit engine for a reason.
And for Anthropic? Compute is oxygen. Locking up capacity, even from a competitor, beats suffocating.
One deal, two companies solving their biggest problem with each other's biggest problem. Almost romantic.
Who wins this deal more?
⛽ No Warehouse. No Hot Dogs.
Costco just opened a gas station with no Costco attached.
First one in company history. Mission Viejo, California. Not a single rotisserie chicken in sight.
No warehouse, no food court, no 48-pack of paper towels you didn't plan to buy. Just pumps, open roughly 5am to 10pm, members only.
Here's the play 👇
⛽ The Setup
Costco built it on the grave of a Bed Bath & Beyond, right next to the busy I-5 corridor.
You still need to flash a membership card to fill up. So it's basically a giant, members-only petrol station dropped into someone else's shopping centre.
Think of it as Costco unbundling itself. The gas queue was always the most popular ride at the theme park. Now the ride gets its own park.
Costco has already confirmed a second fuel-only site at Kapalama Kai in Honolulu, opening 2027.
And industry reporting says more standalone sites are under consideration.
Notice the pattern: California and Hawaii. Dense, expensive markets where finding land for a full warehouse is a nightmare, but where drivers are most desperate for cheap fuel.
A full Costco needs acres. A gas station needs a dead Bed Bath & Beyond. There are a lot more of those going around.
🧠 Why The Timing Is Sensational
Consumer surveys say drivers are comparing local gas prices harder than at any point in the past 30 years, thanks to a four-month spike in prices at the pump.
So Costco is rolling out cheap members-only fuel at the exact moment everyone is squinting at price boards.
Bad news for the neighbours: Shell, Chevron, Circle K, Murphy USA, Casey's and friends now have to compete with a rival that treats gas as a membership perk, not a profit centre.
💰 What It Means For You
If the test works, cheap Costco fuel could start showing up in places that could never fit a warehouse. More pumps, more membership value, more reasons to renew.
For investors, watch two things: whether these sites pull in new memberships on their own, and whether the big fuel retailers start feeling the squeeze in test markets.
One gas station won't move Costco's numbers. But it might quietly redraw the map for everyone selling petrol near one.
Would you pay for a membership just to get cheap gas?