Monday Open Will Be Ugly 🤮

News doesn’t take weekends off, neither should your portfolio. What about when the S&P moves 3% during your commute?

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Trump pulled the plug on Iran talks… and then pulled out the navy.

After a weekend of negotiations in Islamabad fell apart (JD Vance, Steve Witkoff, and Jared Kushner flew halfway around the world for nothing), Trump went straight to Truth Social with what can only be described as a Declaration of Naval War.

Starting Monday April 13 at 10 a.m. ET, U.S. Central Command will stop all vessels entering or leaving Iranian ports — across the Arabian Gulf and Gulf of Oman.

Every ship. Every flag. No exceptions.

The trigger? Trump accused Iran of threatening to mine the strait and charge ships tolls for safe passage. His response was... not subtle.

Any ship that pays Iran a transit fee? The U.S. Navy won't protect it on the open water.

That's not a warning. That's a tariff on your tariff.

Now here's why your portfolio should care.

The Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important 21-mile chokepoint. ~20% of global oil and LNG passes through it every single day.

Shut it down — or even spook it — and energy markets go haywire.

Iran's foreign ministry is hinting talks could still happen. But with a blockade starting in less than 24 hours, the window is closing fast.

1. Buy the Energy Spike
A blockade on 20% of global oil supply doesn't stay quiet. Prices move fast and so should you.

📌 Action: Add exposure to energy ETFs like $XLE ( ▼ 0.68% ) or $USO ( ▼ 1.69% ) before Monday's open. Ride the spike, set a stop loss, don't get greedy.

2. Rotate Into Defence
Trump isn't bluffing. Naval enforcement, mine-clearing operations, and regional escalation means defence spending goes up.

📌 Action: Look at $LMT ( ▼ 1.63% ) (Lockheed Martin) or $RTX ( ▼ 0.8% ) (Raytheon). These names move when geopolitical risk spikes — and this is as spiked as it gets.

3. Hedge With Gold
When shipping lanes go dark and the Middle East lights up, money runs to safety. Gold is the oldest hedge in the book for a reason.

📌 Action: Add a small allocation to $GLD ( ▼ 0.18% ) or $SGLN (London-listed). Not a trade — a shield. Hold it until the situation de-escalates.

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Currency markets don't lie. And right now, they're telling us to buckle up.

The Australian dollar is down ~0.8% in early Monday trade, and that matters more than it sounds.

Why? Because the AUD is Wall Street's canary in the coal mine. When global risk appetite tanks, the Aussie falls first.

FX strategist Michael Brown at Pepperstone ran the numbers on X:

"Spoos" = S&P 500 futures. And 1.4–1.6% down before the U.S. session even opens is not a small number.

Any guesses? It’s two words: Strait of Hormuz.

Trump announced a naval blockade of one of the world's most critical oil chokepoints. U.S.-Iran peace talks have also collapsed. Markets are now pricing in the worst.

The Hormuz strait handles roughly 20% of global oil flows. Block it and you don't just spike oil prices. You rattle the entire global trade machine.

The AUD-to-spoos relationship isn't guaranteed. But historically? It's a reliable enough signal that traders watch it like a hawk.

Right now, it's pointing down.

The Iran conflict isn't just rattling oil markets. It's quietly reshaping how often your plane takes off.

New data from BNP Paribas shows airlines have slashed global April capacity by 7%. That's up from a 5% cut estimated just a week ago. May is already starting to wobble too, down around 2% from pre-conflict levels.

Things are moving fast. And not in the good direction.

April capacity in the region is down 43% compared to pre-conflict plans. May is trailing by around 14%. Major regional hubs are still running roughly one-third below normal volumes, with no meaningful recovery in sight.

Outside the region, the cuts are smaller but spreading:

Here's the sneaky second-order effect worth watching.

BNP analyst Matt Akers flagged that if fuel prices stay elevated, airlines could start fast-tracking the retirement of older, less fuel-efficient aircraft. High costs make old planes a liability, not an asset.

That said, history suggests oil spikes don't always cause lasting damage to the sector. The industry has a habit of absorbing pain faster than people expect.

And demand? Still holding up.

Late March checks showed passengers haven't changed their behaviour much, even as tensions climbed and costs ballooned. Turns out people still really want to go on holiday.

But the gap between what airlines planned and what they're actually flying is widening fast. Geopolitical shocks have a way of hitting aviation hardest, especially when energy markets are already on edge.