Netanyahu's Hair Is On Fire 🔥

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Trump says the U.S. is in the "final stages" of nuclear talks with Iran.

Which sounds promising. Until you hear the rest of it.

"We'll see what happens," the president told reporters at Joint Base Andrews. A deal gets done, or America does "some things that are a little bit nasty."

Classic Trump. One sentence of hope, one sentence of threat, zero sentences of clarity.

Here's what's actually on the table.

The proposed deal is essentially a 30-day ceasefire extension — both sides sign a "letter of intent" to formally end hostilities, then spend the next month negotiating the big stuff: reopening the Strait of Hormuz and Iran's nuclear programme.

Kick the can. But make it diplomatic.

Markets noticed. Oil prices dropped on the headlines. So did Treasury yields. Traders are pricing in less chaos, at least for now.

Not everyone's happy though.

Israeli PM Netanyahu is reportedly furious. One source told Axios his "hair was on fire" after a tense call with Trump — where he learned about the letter of intent secondhand, essentially.

Qatar, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Egypt are all involved in brokering this thing. Netanyahu is not.

That's a lot of cooks. And one very unhappy neighbour.

Why does the Strait of Hormuz matter so much?

About 20% of the world's oil passes through it. If it stays blocked past early July, NATO is reportedly weighing a military operation just to keep commercial ships moving.

That's not a geopolitical footnote. That's an oil supply emergency wearing a suit.

The bottom line?

A deal would cool energy markets fast. No deal — or a breakdown with Israel — keeps the risk premium baked into crude.

Watch oil. Watch the Strait. Watch Netanyahu's hair.

Here are three executable ideas based on the article:

1. Ride the "Deal is Close" Oil Drop
Trump saying "final stages" sent oil prices lower. If a deal gets signed, oil drops hard and fast.

📌 Action: Watch for a confirmed deal headline. On confirmation, consider adding to energy-light ETFs like $QQQ ( ▲ 1.66% ) or $SPY ( ▲ 1.03% ), which benefit from lower oil (cheaper input costs = better margins for tech and consumer stocks).

2. Stack Defence and Energy Exposure
No deal means NATO military operations in the Strait. That's a direct catalyst for defence spending.

📌 Action: Consider ETFs like $ITA ( ▲ 2.27% ) (iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defence) or $XLE ( ▼ 2.43% ) (Energy Select Sector) as a hedge. If talks collapse, both sectors get a significant tailwind.

3. Play the 30-Day Clock
The proposed deal only buys 30 days. That's not peace, that's a countdown timer with a prize at the end.

📌 Action: Use the ceasefire window to accumulate positions in oil-sensitive stocks at lower prices. When the 30-day window approaches expiry, volatility returns. You want to be positioned before the crowd remembers the clock is ticking.

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China's government confirmed this week its rare earth export controls are "legitimate and legal"… but in the same breath said it's happy to work with the U.S. on "reasonable" concerns.

What they’re really saying? The restrictions aren't going anywhere.

Here's what's changed. Six months ago, the White House said China's export controls would be dismantled. Now? The U.S. appears to have quietly accepted them as the new normal.

That's a pretty significant walk-back dressed up as diplomacy.

What came out of the Trump-Xi summit:

So China is simultaneously saying "we'll cooperate" and "also, we're hoarding more minerals." Bold move.

Why this matters for your portfolio.

Rare earths aren't just niche geology talk. They're in EV motors, defence systems, semiconductors, and wind turbines. If China controls the tap, Western manufacturers are dependent on a supplier that's also a geopolitical rival.

That's the kind of supply chain risk that sends investors toward domestic alternatives.

Meanwhile, Nvidia just got sucker-punched.

During the very summit where Jensen Huang showed up as part of Trump's entourage, China quietly banned one of Nvidia's chips.

The chip in question: the RTX 5090D V2 — unveiled last August specifically to comply with U.S. export controls and sold to the Chinese gaming market. Turns out AI developers had been using it too. China noticed.

Huang, to his credit, stayed optimistic. On Bloomberg TV this week he said: "My sense is that over time, the market will open."

The man flew to Beijing with the U.S. President and left with a banned product. Still bullish. Respect.

Earnings drop tonight. (Covered in next segment) Nvidia reports Q2 results after the close. Analysts are expecting:

The ban news adds a fresh wrinkle heading into the print. Watch how management frames China exposure on the call.

1. Ride the Rare Earth Re-rating
China just confirmed it's keeping its boot on the rare earth supply tap — permanently. That's a long-term tailwind for any company mining or processing these minerals outside of China.

📌 Action: Add exposure to domestic rare earth plays like $MP ( ▲ 2.86% ) or $USAR ( ▲ 13.05% ), or spread the risk with the $REMX ( ▲ 3.31% ) ETF. This is a multi-year theme, not a day trade — size accordingly.

2. Stack the Mineral Reserve Builders
China locking reserves in for five-year minimums means supply tightness isn't going away. Companies helping the U.S. build its own strategic stockpile are quietly becoming infrastructure plays.

📌 Action: Look at $PPTA ( ▲ 11.65% ) and $UUUU ( ▲ 3.71% ) — both have government contract exposure and benefit directly from the U.S. push to onshore critical mineral supply chains. Buy on dips, hold medium-term.

3. Buy Nvidia on Earnings Weakness
The chip ban headline is noisy, but the RTX 5090D V2 was already a workaround product. Nvidia's real growth engine is data centres, not Chinese gaming rigs. Any post-earnings dip driven by China fear could be a gift.

📌 Action: Watch $NVDA ( ▲ 1.3% ) after tonight's earnings call. If the stock drops on China rhetoric but guidance holds strong, that's a buying opportunity. Jensen said the market will open — bet on his track record.

Nvidia dropped its Q1 fiscal 2027 results, and honestly, at this point it's less of an earnings report and more of a flex.

EPS came in at $1.87, beating estimates by $0.10. Revenue? $81.62 billion, up 85% year-over-year, smashing expectations by $2.65 billion.

The real headline: Data Center revenue hit $75.2 billion, up 92% from a year ago. A new record. Jensen Huang is basically building the power grid of the AI era, and everyone's paying for the electricity.

Speaking of Jensen, he said the AI infrastructure buildout is "the largest infrastructure expansion in human history." Bold claim. Also probably not wrong.

Agentic AI is the new buzzword he's pushing hard, and the pitch is simple: Nvidia runs on every cloud, powers every major AI model, and scales from giant data centres down to the edge. It's the AWS of AI chips, except it also makes the chips.

The shareholder candy was real too.

That's a 2,400% dividend increase. Your move, Tim Cook.

Q2 guidance came in spicy: Nvidia is guiding to $91 billion in revenue, well above Wall Street's $86.95B consensus.

One catch worth noting: no China Data Center revenue is baked into that outlook. With export restrictions still looming, they're not counting those chips before they hatch.

The market's reaction? Stock slipped 2.16% after hours.

Classic. Beat everything, raise guidance, and still get sold. That's just Wall Street being Wall Street.

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