📉 Oil Just Sold The Good News

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Oil got good news on Friday and immediately fell over.

A US official said that a deal between Iran and Oman to secure the Strait of Hormuz is expected soon. Once it lands, Washington lifts its naval blockade on Iranian ports.

Brent and WTI had been green earlier in the day. Both reversed their gains, slid into negative territory, and spent the session sniffing around their lows.

Roughly a fifth of the world's oil squeezes through Hormuz every single day. Block it and every barrel on the planet gets more expensive, whether it goes near Iran or not.

A reopening does the reverse. Traders dumped the fear premium the second the headline hit, before a single extra tanker actually moved.

BUT… nothing has been signed.

The same US official spelled out the conditions: the blockade only lifts once the agreement is officially announced and unrestricted commercial shipping is fully restored. That's two hurdles, and shipping companies clear the second one, not diplomats.

Washington added that any easing of pressure stays tied to Iran honouring its commitments on the ground. So they’re really saying “We'll believe it when the tankers move”

Then there's Thursday. Iran was reportedly weighing a draft plan to restrict ship traffic through the strait, which is a peculiar document to be drawing up while negotiating to reopen it. That draft is precisely why people started asking whether the Iran-Oman deal survives contact with reality.

Oil is pricing a press release. The barrels haven't changed, the headlines have.

That cuts both ways. A confirmed deal plus genuinely free shipping means the geopolitical premium keeps draining out of crude, which flows into everything from airline costs to the inflation prints central bankers keep squinting at.

A collapse in talks, or that traffic-restriction plan resurfacing, puts the premium straight back on. Fast.

The tell to watch is not the announcement. It's whether commercial ships start booking routes through Hormuz once one exists.

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SpaceX shed a record ~$773 billion in market cap between June and July.

For scale: the entire company IPO'd at a $1.77T valuation. It deleted almost half of itself in about six weeks.

Net damage since the June debut is closer to $260B, so some of that came back. Friday alone closed 15.83% higher at $133.11.

A long way from the $200 the stock touched in its first week of trading, which nobody wants to bring up anymore.

Down 17.30% since it started trading. So what broke?

Tuesday brought SpaceX's first ever earnings report as a public company, and the results comfortably beat Wall Street.

The stock fell anyway.

Blame the AI spending line, which came in far higher than expected at a company that still isn't profitable. Investors love a growth story right up until they see the invoice.

Analysts split hard. Some are calling the bottom and slapped a Strong Buy on it, arguing the August lockup expiry was already priced in.

Others are flagging high capex, continued losses and a stock still trying to settle after a big IPO.

And some are more neutral saying Q2 2026 made the thesis easier to underwrite, but Starship has to execute, AI infrastructure has to convert into contracted revenue, and orbital data centers still need proof.

Which brings us to the part nobody can price properly.

At the IPO, fewer than 5% of SpaceX shares could actually be traded. Everything else was locked.

That changed Thursday, the second full trading day on Nasdaq after earnings. The tradeable float more than doubled, adding roughly 911.5 million shares, about 140% of the existing float.

And it keeps going:

More sellers arriving on a schedule. You can guess what that tends to do to a price.

Big money seems to think so. CNBC reported Thursday that positioning has shifted from speculative out-of-the-money call buying toward put selling and large risk reversals, which is how institutions say "probably no second crash, but we want the upside."

By midday, about $600M in options premium had traded, including $316M in puts, of which roughly $166M looked like put selling rather than buying.

Two of those trades paired multi-million dollar put sales with long calls. Implied volatility is easing, downside momentum has cooled, and the stock has settled.

What it means for you: SpaceX is three bets stapled together. Rockets, AI infrastructure, and orbital data centers with no proven business model.

Q2 made that story easier to believe. It did nothing about the supply problem, and every unlock between now and December is a fresh test of who actually wants to own this thing.

Celsius stock jumped 12% because one man went on TV and asked to be handed the CEO job.

That man is Russ Savage, who founded Rockstar Energy and sold it to PepsiCo in 2020 for $3.85 billion.

He now owns more than 12 million Celsius shares, a 4.7% stake, and he is done being polite about it.

Speaking to CNBC on Friday, Savage said the CEO, the COO, the brand manager and the marketing manager should all be fired.

Then he volunteered for the top job himself. His words: "I'm publicly volunteering to do it."

His case against the current boss is one line long. He reckons the CEO has lost credibility with the investment community.

Savage says he has been quietly pushing Celsius on its cost structure and marketing for over a year. The quiet part is clearly over.

Thursday was ugly. Celsius shares plunged 18% after Q2 revenue came in short of analyst estimates, with sales of the namesake Celsius brand turning negative.

A 12% bounce does not cover an 18% fall. It mostly tells you the market would rather watch a boardroom brawl than another earnings call.

Savage sold Rockstar to PepsiCo. Then last August, Celsius bought the US and Canadian rights to Rockstar from PepsiCo.

So the guy who built the brand Celsius now sells wants to run the company selling it. Energy drinks: a category where nobody stays in their lane.

Celsius responded with the corporate equivalent of a firm handshake. It said it welcomes potentially value-creating ideas from all shareholders, pointed to record Q2 results, and noted that its board and management have engaged with Savage many times over the past several years.

Translation: thanks, we've heard this one.

4.7% is a megaphone, not a majority. Savage cannot fire anybody on his own, which makes this a campaign for other shareholders rather than a takeover.

Two things worth watching: whether large institutional holders back him out loud, and whether Celsius brand sales are still negative next quarter.

If sales keep sliding, his pitch writes itself. If they recover, he's a man with a big position and a strong opinion.