🐻 S&P Record. Burry Says No.

Imagine turning down Uber at a valuation of $10 million, only to watch it go public at over $80 billion.

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^{Potential Uber return for Marc Cuban does not take into account dilution.}

^{The Deloitte rankings are based on submitted applications and public company database research, with winners selected based on their fiscal-year revenue growth percentage over a three-year period in 2023.}

^{Please read the offering circular at invest.modemobile.com. This is a paid advertisement for Mode Mobile’s Regulation A Offering.}

Michael Burry picked the worst possible day to call the top.

On Tuesday, the man behind The Big Short said in a Substack post that we could be near a major top, with a 1987-style fall still on the table.

That same afternoon, the S&P 500 closed at a record high.

Yikes.

The market went the other way, and it went hard.

The S&P 500 rose 1.9% on Tuesday to lock in its first record close since June.

The Nasdaq jumped 2.7%, taking its two-day gain to nearly 5%.

The fuel: strong corporate earnings, plus oil falling on hopes the Strait of Hormuz reopens. Cheaper energy, fatter margins, happy investors.

So how does anyone look at that and see 1987?

Burry's worry sits underneath the price action.

When markets rise and volatility falls, vol-targeting funds are mechanically forced to add leverage. Momentum strategies then pile in behind them.

In English: calm markets make big funds borrow more. Leverage is a conga line. Great fun until the guy at the front stops walking.

And new record highs pull fresh money off the sidelines, which Burry expects to happen here too. More fuel on a fire that's already leveraged.

He hasn't blinked on the AI trade. Burry says he's still short:

Every one of those positions is profitable except the Nvidia short.

Shorting the most beloved stock on Earth going badly. Who could possibly have seen that coming.

He added that he'd cut his losses if the trades moved decisively against him, which is the part most people skip when they cosplay as a doom investor.

Burry is a professional bear with a research budget and a stomach lining made of concrete. You are probably neither, and he says so himself: "I must short. Most should not."

I personally never short because the upside is limited and the downside is inifinite.

The useful takeaway is the mechanism, not the prediction. Leverage building up during calm markets is what turns an ordinary sell-off into a violent one.

Records get made by money chasing records. That's normal. It's also exactly the condition Burry is pointing at.

Worth knowing which one you're watching.

Most people will chase the next AI IPO on hype alone and get burned. If you'd rather understand the timeline, the retail access window, and the risk buried in the filings before you commit a dollar, the free briefing is built for you.

Read the Free Briefing

A spent SpaceX rocket just hit the moon at 5,400 mph.

That's a mile and a half every second. And nobody was steering.

The Falcon 9 upper stage slammed into the lunar surface early Wednesday, ending a months-long drift that scientists had been tracking the whole way down.

The European Southern Observatory detected a plume after the collision containing sodium and lithium.

Scientists think the sodium came from the moon itself. Standard stuff, kicked up by the impact.

The lithium is the interesting bit. That most likely came from the rocket. We just left a chemical fingerprint on another world by accident.

It did its actual job last year, helping launch two commercial lunar landers. One of them was Firefly Aerospace's Blue Ghost, which stuck the landing.

Then it just floated.

Falcon 9's first-stage boosters come home and get reused. The upper stage doesn't. It gets left up there to sort itself out.

A SpaceX executive said solar activity and gravity slowly bent the trajectory until the moon happened to be in the way.

Space, it turns out, has no lane discipline.

The moon gets pelted by meteoroids constantly. Getting hit by human hardware is rare. The short list: an early Soviet spacecraft, discarded Apollo-era gear, part of a Chinese lunar lander, and now this.

Honestly? For SpaceX itself, nothing. Operations and launch cadence are completely unaffected, and the collision was expected once the mission wrapped.

The story worth watching is the junk.

Every lunar mission leaves hardware behind that nobody plans to collect. Right now that's a handful of objects and a fun science headline.

As lunar traffic accelerates, tracking and disposing of that debris stops being a curiosity and starts being a cost. Somebody has to build the tracking, the disposal planning, and eventually the insurance products wrapped around both.

That's a line item currently sitting on nobody's balance sheet.

Sandisk $SNDK ( ▼ 5.4% ) grew revenue 372% in a year. The stock fell anyway.

Shares dropped 3% in extended trading on Wednesday, a few hours after the company printed one of the best quarters on the tape.

For the period ending July 3, revenue landed at $8.97B, up 372% year over year. Wall Street had asked for $8.48B.

That is nearly five times the business it was running a year ago. Same factories, same logo, roughly quintuple the money.

Adjusted earnings came in at $39.25 per share against the $34.96 analysts modelled. A four-dollar-a-share beat, which in earnings terms is a insane.

CEO David Goeckeler used the word "durable" about free cash flow and flagged datacenter as a key growth pillar, which is executive for "the AI buildout is buying our storage by the pallet."

So why did anyone sell?

Sandisk guided Q1 fiscal 2027 adjusted EPS to $44 to $46. Midpoint of $45, comfortably above the $44.72 estimate. Profitability, fine.

Revenue guidance is where it cracked. The company sees $10.3B to $10.8B, a midpoint of $10.55B against the $10.82B the street wanted.

That gap is $270M, or about 2.5% light. Two and a half percent, on a business that just quintupled.

Investors went full brainless and sold the beat.

When a stock has run on a story this hot, the reported numbers stop being the product. The forecast becomes the product.

Sandisk is now in the club where beating today is table stakes and the only question that moves the price is whether next quarter accelerates. Expectations have caught up to the growth.

Worth watching: whether that revenue midpoint is genuine cooling in demand or management setting a bar it can hop over in November. The EPS guide being above consensus while revenue sits below hints at margin discipline rather than a demand cliff, but one quarter of guidance is a data point, not a trend.

The mixed message is the message. This is what it looks like when a stock stops being cheap.