Shutdown Clock Is Ticking ⏰

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SHUTDOWN CLOCK IS TICKING ⏰ 

The market opened Monday with a cautious smile. All three major averages are higher as investors turn their focus to Trump’s upcoming White House sit-down with the top four congressional leaders. The big question: can they dodge a government shutdown that’s just hours away?

• Nasdaq Composite: $QQQ ( ▼ 0.42% )  

• S&P 500: $SPX ( ▲ 0.01% )  

• Dow Jones: $DJI ( ▲ 0.51% )  

Tech is flexing the hardest while Energy is getting smoked. Oil slid 2.8% and dragged the sector with it.

Bonds are cooling off too.

• 10-year Treasury yield slipped to 4.14%

• 2-year dropped to 3.62%

Nothing major, just a few basis points here and there.

The shutdown clock is ticking.

If Congress cannot agree on a funding deal, the lights go out at 12:01 a.m. Wednesday. That means government agencies would close and, fun twist, even this Friday’s payrolls report could get delayed. Back in 2013, the shutdown pushed the jobs report nearly three weeks late.

Investor vibes heading into October:

• Valuations are stretched

• October has a track record for market mood swings

• Pullbacks are on the table, and they may sneak in quietly over a few days instead of one big drop

On deck this week: more Fed chatter. Atlanta’s Raphael Bostic and New York’s John Williams are both scheduled to speak. Investors will be listening for any hints on the path forward for rates.

TL;DR

• Markets opened higher Monday with tech leading the charge.

• Oil is down, Energy is hurting.

• Treasury yields dipped slightly.

• All eyes are on Trump’s meeting with congressional leaders as the shutdown deadline looms.

• October could get bumpy for stocks, and payrolls Friday might not even happen if the government closes.

1. Position for Tech Strength
The Nasdaq led gains while Info Tech was the top-performing sector. Investors are still piling into growth despite stretched valuations.
📌 Action: Add exposure through a broad tech ETF like $XLK ( ▼ 0.5% ) or a Nasdaq tracker like $QQQ ( ▼ 0.42% ) . Scale in, but keep cash ready for October pullbacks.

2. Play the Energy Weakness
Oil dropped 2.8% and dragged Energy stocks down. Seasonal demand softens in October, and a potential shutdown could dampen sentiment further.
📌 Action: Build watchlists of high-quality energy names like $XOM ( ▲ 1.77% ) or $CVX ( ▲ 0.12% ) . Use this weakness to accumulate shares at discounted prices for the long term.

3. Hedge with Treasuries
Yields ticked lower across the curve as investors brace for political drama and possible shutdown. If volatility spikes in October, Treasuries are a classic safety valve.
📌 Action: Park some capital in Treasury ETFs like $TLT ( ▼ 0.19% ) or $IEF ( ▼ 0.2% ) as a defensive hedge while keeping equity exposure intact.

THE POWER SHIFT IS HERE ⚡️ 

Peabody Energy $BTU ( ▲ 9.18% ) popped +6.9% on Monday after the Trump administration dropped some big news:

They’re cracking open more than 13 million acres of federal land for coal mining leases and throwing $625 million at coal-powered energy projects.

Simple terms? Uncle Sam is handing coal a bigger shovel and a bigger wallet.

Other U.S.-listed coal stocks tagged along for the ride:

• Ramaco Resources $METC ( ▲ 7.7% ) +4.8%

• Alpha Metallurgical Resources $AMR ( ▲ 1.06% ) +2.1%

• Alliance Resource Partners $ARLP ( ▼ 0.35% ) +1.5%

• Core Natural Resources $CNR ( ▲ 3.53% ) +1.4%

• Warrior Met Coal $HCC ( ▼ 0.68% ) +0.3%

The Interior Secretary also said the agency will cut royalty rates and fast-track project approvals in Wyoming, Tennessee, and other coal hotbeds.

Peabody released a statement basically saying, “Thanks Mr. President, we love the free buff.”

But here’s the elephant in the mine shaft: coal makes up only 15% of U.S. power generation today, down from over 50% in 2000. The world has been swapping coal furnaces for windmills, solar farms, and natural gas pipelines.

So while these moves give coal stocks some short-term fireworks, it is unclear if they’ll actually rewrite the long-term script.

TL;DR

• Trump admin opens 13M acres for coal leases + $625M for coal power

• Coal stocks rally (Peabody +6.9% leads the pack)

• Royalties cut, approvals faster

• Coal still shrinking in the bigger energy mix, now 15% of U.S. power vs. 50% in 2000

1. Ride the Coal Stock Bounce
Trump’s push to open 13M acres + $625M in funding sparks short-term rallies in coal names. Momentum traders will chase headlines.
📌 Action: Swing trade leading coal stocks like $BTU ( ▲ 9.18% ) , $METC ( ▲ 7.7% ) , or $AMR ( ▲ 1.06% ) . Scale out as hype cools.

2. Play the U.S. Energy Mix Shift
Coal only makes up ~15% of power vs. 50% in 2000. Policy tailwinds may slow the decline but can’t reverse the macro shift. Renewables and nat gas still benefit long-term.
📌 Action: Use coal’s pop as a chance to go short on coal stocks or rotate into renewables like $ICLN ( ▲ 0.57% )  (clean energy ETF) or nat gas plays like $UNG ( ▼ 2.97% ) for the longer arc.

3. Watch Royalty Cuts = Margin Boost
Lower royalty rates + faster project approvals could fatten margins for coal miners that expand production. That’s a bottom-line catalyst.
📌 Action: Accumulate producers like $ARLP ( ▼ 0.35% ) with solid dividend yields and cash flow, targeting long-term income plays.

RECORD PROFITS, STOCK TANKS?! 🚢

Carnival $CCL ( ▼ 0.97% ) just dropped its Q3 results and the seas are looking pretty smooth. The cruise giant beat Wall Street’s expectations on both revenue and earnings and raised full-year guidance for the third time this year.

CEO Josh Weinstein put it simply: record profits, record revenues, and a boatload of demand. Net yields were up 4.6% on the same ships as last year, and onboard spending kept flowing like bottomless mimosas.

The numbers were huge:

• Adjusted net income hit $1.9B, or $1.43 per share. That’s a new all-time high, beating 2019’s pre-pandemic record by 10%.

• Revenue clocked in at $8.2B, also a record, with ticket sales and onboard spending both rising.

• Customer deposits? Another record at $7.1B, showing that passengers are booking cruises further out than ever.

Bookings are so strong that nearly half of 2026 is already filled. And at higher prices too. Carnival says North American and European itineraries are leading the way.

The company now expects full-year net income to rise 55% to about $2.14 per share. That’s up from its earlier forecast of $1.97. For Q4, it’s guiding for another 60% jump in profit versus last year.

But here’s the catch. Carnival’s stock couldn’t hold the wave. After challenging its post-pandemic high of $32.80, shares slipped into the red. The pullback dragged down the whole sector, with Royal Caribbean and Norwegian also dipping.

With those reported numbers, it might just be a temporary dip. Analysts have an average price target that is 18%+ from here at $34.73

TL;DR:

• Carnival just crushed Q3 with record profits, revenue, and deposits.

• Bookings are so strong that half of 2026 is already sold.

• Guidance got another bump higher.

• The only buzzkill is the stock, which slid after testing a new high.

1. Ride the Cruise Recovery
Carnival just posted record profits, record deposits, and raised guidance again. Demand is clearly back in full force, with bookings already stretching into 2026.
📌 Action: Build a position in $CCL ( ▼ 0.97% ) on weakness. Accumulate while shares dip after testing post-pandemic highs.

2. Play the Peer Momentum
Royal Caribbean and Norwegian dropped in sympathy with Carnival despite no change in their fundamentals. Strong industry-wide demand means they could bounce back quickly. 📌 Action: Pick up shares of $RCL ( ▼ 1.89% ) or $NCLH ( ▼ 1.02% ) while they’re trading lower on sector-wide fear.

3. Bet on the Travel Boom
Cruise demand is part of a larger consumer trend: travel spending is still at record highs. Hotels, airlines, and booking platforms are also benefitting.
📌 Action: Gain exposure through ETFs like $JETS ( ▲ 0.85% )  (airlines) or $AWAY ( ▲ 0.27% )  (travel tech) to ride the broader travel wave.

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