Stocks Up... But At What Cost?! 😨

STOCKS UP… BUT AT WHAT COST?! 😨 

The stock market pulled a shy little climb today.

• $SPX ( ▲ 0.01% )

• $NDX ( ▼ 0.28% )  

• $DOW ( ▲ 0.55% )  

Not exactly champagne-popping numbers, but green is green.

 The Big Payroll Plot Twist 💼

The Bureau of Labor Statistics dropped a bomb. They revised payrolls down by 911,000 jobs. That is a -0.6% hit to employment through March 2025.

The job market looked strong last year. Turns out, it was skipping leg day & hanging out in waist deep water.

Economists are now saying this actually makes the Fed’s 100bps in rate cuts last year look smart.

 Fed Cuts and the Waiting Game🏦

Everyone’s staring at this week’s inflation reports. CPI lands Wednesday. PPI comes Thursday.

Will it change next week’s Fed move? Nope. They are expected to cut by 25bps no matter what.

But it will fuel the debate over whether the Fed should worry more about jobs or inflation.

 Bond Party 💵

Treasury held a $58B auction for 3-year notes and the demand was strong.

10-year yield rose to 4.07%
2-year yield rose to 3.54%

Think of it as investors saying: “Fine, give me the boring safe stuff.”

Apple Tries to Shine🍏

Apple rolled out the iPhone 17, AirPods Pro 3 with live translation, and a satellite-connected Apple Watch Ultra 3.

Cool flex. The market did not care. $AAPL ( ▲ 0.35% ) shares fell 1.5%.

Meanwhile, the Nasdaq still notched a new record thanks to big tech rallying.

TL;DR:

• Stocks inched higher

• Payrolls revised down by 911K jobs, exposing weaker labor market

• Fed cuts look justified, inflation data drops this week

• Treasury bonds in demand, yields tick higher

• Apple unveils new gadgets, stock still fell 1.5%

1. Play the Rate Cut Trade
Fed is expected to cut 25bps next week, no matter what inflation prints. Lower rates tend to lift equities, especially growth and tech.
📌 Action: Add exposure to rate-sensitive ETFs like $QQQ ( ▼ 0.42% ) or mega-cap tech names on dips. Hold into Fed confirmation.

2. Bond Demand Boost
The $58B Treasury auction saw strong demand, showing investors want safety and yield. With payrolls weak, bonds get even more attractive.
📌 Action: Accumulate bond ETFs like $IEF ( ▼ 0.2% )  (10Y exposure) or $SHY ( ▼ 0.04% )  (2Y exposure) for stability and steady income.

3. Tech vs Apple Divergence
Nasdaq hit a record while Apple fell -1.5% after its flashy iPhone 17 reveal. The market is rewarding broad tech but not buying Apple hype.
📌 Action: Stay long diversified tech via $XLK ( ▼ 0.5% ) or $QQQ ( ▼ 0.42% ) while avoiding single-stock risk in $AAPL ( ▲ 0.35% ) until sentiment improves.

CRYPTO’S $2.2BILLION SURPRISE 💰️ 

Crypto’s back in the headlines. This time it’s not because someone lost their wallet password. Gemini, the exchange built by the Winklevoss twins, is about to make its Wall Street debut.

The company filed to list on the Nasdaq under ticker GEMI and expects to start trading Friday.

Here’s what’s going down:

• Gemini plans to sell 16.7 million shares at $17 to $19 each

• That would raise up to $317 million

• A successful sale values Gemini at around $2.2 billion

Not bad for two guys who once rowed boats really fast.

Nasdaq will invest $50 million into Gemini’s IPO through a private placement. That means Nasdaq is literally putting its money where its mouth is.

In return, both sides get perks:

• Nasdaq clients get access to Gemini’s custody and staking services

• Gemini clients get to use Nasdaq’s Calypso platform for collateral tracking

Basically, it’s a Wall Street–meets–crypto bromance.

Where this fits in the big picture

Gemini will become only the third publicly traded crypto exchange in the U.S. Coinbase listed in 2021. Bullish joined earlier this year. Now Gemini slides in at number three.

Investors clearly still want exposure to exchanges even after years of “crypto is dead” headlines.

TL;DR:

• Gemini is going public Friday on Nasdaq under ticker $GEMI

• IPO: 16.7M shares priced at $17–$19 each

• Could raise up to $317M

• Valuation around $2.2B

• Nasdaq is investing $50M in the IPO

• Deal perks: Nasdaq clients get Gemini custody + staking, Gemini clients get Nasdaq’s Calypso platform

1. Buy Into Exchange Growth
Crypto exchanges thrive when trading activity rises. Gemini joining Coinbase and Bullish as public players signals more mainstream acceptance of digital assets.
📌 Action: Build a basket of U.S.-listed exchange stocks $COIN ( ▲ 2.14% ) , $GEMI when it lists. Hold for long-term exposure to crypto adoption.

2. Follow the Institutional Angle
Nasdaq dropping $50M into Gemini isn’t charity. It’s a bet on custody, staking, and Calypso platform integration.
📌 Action: Add positions in companies benefiting from institutional adoption (e.g. Nasdaq $NDAQ ( ▲ 0.31% ) , or custody/infra firms like $BK ( ▲ 0.21% ) ). They’re quietly becoming the backbone of digital finance.

3. Play the “Pick & Shovel” Strategy
Instead of gambling on tokens, profit from the rails. Exchanges and infra providers make money whether prices go up or down.
📌 Action: Allocate to diversified fintech ETFs like $ARKF ( ▼ 0.21% ) or $FINX ( ▼ 0.38% ) that capture both exchanges and payment innovators. It spreads exposure while riding the trend of crypto going public.

Daily Bull Run Premium+