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In today’s post:
The Canary Just Sang 🐦
Gold Just Dethroned America 👑
The Party's Over For BTC 😭
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The Canary Just Sang 🐦
Alphabet just announced $80B in equity offerings to fund its AI buildout. Including a $10B chunk from Berkshire Hathaway.
For a company that spent 15 years buying its own stock back, this is a plot twist. And it might be the canary down the mine for all the other AI giants.
Think of it like a homeowner who's been paying off the mortgage for years suddenly taking out a giant loan. Something big is happening.
Why should you care?
Because if Google needs cash this badly, what about the AI startups that haven't even gone public yet?
Tom Graff, CIO at Facet, says the juiciest part isn't even Google. It's what this signals for Anthropic and OpenAI.
His worry: those companies may need to tap equity markets again and again. He's not thrilled about that.
In plain English? AI is a money furnace, and investors keep shoveling.
Google's reasoning is simple: demand is outrunning supply.
In its own words, AI is driving "an expansionary moment," with demand from enterprises and consumers exceeding what Google can currently deliver.
So it's scaling up the foundation to chase the growth.
The history here is wild.
This is Google's first major common equity issuance in nearly two decades. A sharp reversal for a serial buyback machine.
Long-term debt? It went from basically zero in 2007 to $91.4B over the last 12 months.
That’s the sign of a huge strategy shift.
Some of the cash isn't even for chips. A slice covers boring stuff like employee tax obligations. Glamorous, right?
The analysts are still mostly bullish, but cautious.
HSBC's Paul Rossington kept his Buy rating but trimmed the price target to $420.
His take: Google had already cut buybacks and leaned on bond markets to fund higher capex and M&A in 2026, with even bigger capex flagged for 2027.
What surprised him was the timing. Nobody expected the raise this early. And it piles onto an already crowded sector full of fundraising and IPO chatter.
Still, his team thinks Google is uniquely placed to win in AI.
Wells Fargo sees a power move.
Analyst Ken Gawrelski thinks Google is flexing on rivals and suppliers, basically saying: we will outspend you on compute.
Here's the eye-popping number. Google Cloud's backlog ballooned to $462B in 1Q:26 (about $366B stripping out TPU sales), up from just $108B in 2Q:25.
To meet that demand, Wells Fargo projects Google would need to shift nearly 60% of its compute capacity toward Cloud and away from internal use.
And its planned 9.3 GW of compute additions in '27? Possibly conservative.
Wells Fargo's verdict: Overweight, price target $435.
The bottom line: Google is betting the house on AI, and the smart money thinks the house is going to win.
TL;DR
Alphabet announced $80B in equity offerings for AI, including $10B from Berkshire Hathaway, its first major common equity raise in nearly 20 years.
Long-term debt climbed from near zero in 2007 to $91.4B in the last 12 months. Some proceeds also cover general needs like employee tax obligations.
The real signal may be for AI pure-plays like Anthropic and OpenAI, which Tom Graff warns may need to keep tapping equity markets.
HSBC: kept Buy, cut price target to $420. Surprised by the early timing, but still sees Google as uniquely placed in AI.
Wells Fargo: Overweight, $435 target. Google Cloud backlog exploded to $462B (≈$366B ex-TPU) from $108B a year earlier.
To meet demand, Google may shift nearly 60% of compute to Cloud, and its 9.3 GW of '27 additions could prove conservative.
1. Ride the Picks-and-Shovels, Not Just Google
Google's $80B raise screams that AI compute demand is outrunning supply. When a giant spends like this, the suppliers eat first.
📌 Action: Build a basket of AI infrastructure plays like $NVDA ( ▼ 0.69% ), $AVGO ( ▲ 4.7% ), and $SMCI ( ▲ 7.02% ). Accumulate on dips, trim into hype spikes.
2. Own Alphabet With Both Analysts On Your Side
HSBC ($420) and Wells Fargo ($435) both stayed bullish even after the raise. The cut targets reflect dilution math, not a broken thesis.
📌 Action: Treat $GOOGL ( ▼ 3.86% ) weakness on raise-related selloffs as an entry. Dollar-cost in rather than chasing green days.
3. Position for the Cloud Backlog Boom
Google Cloud's backlog rocketed from $108B to $462B in under a year. That demand spills over to every cloud and data-center name.
📌 Action: Add exposure via a broad bet like $SKYY ( ▼ 1.34% ) or anchor names like $MSFT ( ▼ 4.17% ) and $AMZN ( ▼ 1.81% ). Hold through the 2027 capex ramp.
Everyone's still arguing about whether AI will kill software companies.
One company just ended that argument with a single signature.
Snowflake committed $6 billion of its own cash, locked in over five years, to power one product it's betting the entire future on. That's not a press release flex. That's a company putting real money where its conviction is.
The market noticed. The stock ripped 37% in a single day and added $23 billion in market cap before lunch.
But here's what the headlines glossed over: this deal quietly plugs Snowflake into a market projected to explode from $7.6 billion to nearly $200 billion in under a decade. A 26-fold run.
And the stock is still trading well below where it sat in 2024.
So the real question isn't whether the move was justified. It's whether there's still room to run, and we ran the numbers.
In today's Premium+ deep dive, we break down:
The one product this entire $23B revaluation hinges on (and why management bet billions on it)
Our full valuation framework, including the exact price target and the multiple that would change our mind
The single risk that could unravel the whole thesis overnight
The retention signal hiding in the earnings report that almost nobody flagged
The easy money was made on the day of the jump. The real positioning happens now.
Stop watching. Start positioning.
You Don't Have to Wait for the SpaceX IPO
The listing is coming. But the investors who'll profit most aren't waiting — they're already in the three public companies with direct SpaceX revenue exposure. Here's what they're buying.
Gold Just Dethroned America 👑
Well, this is awkward for Uncle Sam.
For decades, U.S. government bonds were the safe-haven king. The asset everyone hid behind when markets got scary.
Now? Gold took the crown.
According to a new European Central Bank report out Tuesday, gold is officially the world's top reserve asset, beating out U.S. Treasurys.
How'd we get here? Central banks have been hoarding the shiny stuff for years, and prices have nearly doubled over the past two years.
The scoreboard at year-end 2025:
Gold: 27% of all global central bank reserves (up from 20% a year earlier)
U.S. Treasurys: 22% (down from 25%)
That's a fast crossover. Gold didn't just sneak ahead. It sprinted.
Helping the cause? A jaw-dropping record high above $5,500/oz back in January.
So everyone's loading up on gold forever, right? Well, not so fast.
The ECB basically said "congrats on the trophy, now don't get comfortable." They don't think the trend lasts.
Their reasoning, in plain English:
Gold's price bounces around like a caffeinated toddler
It pays you zero (no interest, no dividends, nothing)
Storing the physical stuff costs real money
And you can't just print more gold when the world suddenly needs liquidity
That last one matters most. Fiat currencies flex with demand. Gold doesn't.
Right now: gold futures ticked up for the third time in four sessions.
But don't pop the champagne. The inflation backdrop isn't gold's friend, and momentum could stall.
ADM Investor Services put it bluntly: the macro picture stays rough, with money markets leaning toward a Fed rate hike by year-end.
The kicker? Fresh Bureau of Labor Statistics data shows U.S. unemployment at its highest since May 2024.
Rate hikes plus a softening jobs market is a weird combo. And weird combos make gold's victory lap look a little shaky.
TL;DR
The ECB says gold is now the world's #1 reserve asset, passing U.S. Treasurys for the first time.
Gold hit 27% of global central bank reserves (up from 20%), while Treasurys fell to 22% (down from 25%).
A near-doubling of prices over two years and a record $5,500/oz high in January powered the surge.
The ECB doesn't expect it to last: gold is volatile, pays no yield, costs money to store, and supply can't flex with demand.
Gold futures rose for the third time in four sessions, but the inflation setup works against it.
ADM sees a possible Fed rate hike by year-end, with unemployment at its highest since May 2024.
The Party's Over For BTC 😭
Investors yanked $1.67B out of crypto investment products last week.
That's three straight weeks of bleeding, and the second-worst week of 2026. Only 23 January was uglier.
Add it up and the three-week damage hits $4.21B.
The party guest list shrank too. Altcoins getting inflows dropped from 11 assets to just 5.
Bitcoin Led the Exit
Bitcoin alone bled $1.438B, its biggest outflow of 2026. Worse than last week. Worse than the January peak.
When the biggest kid leaves the party, everyone notices.
Sentiment matched the mood. On Tuesday, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index sat at "Extreme Fear" at 23.
The total crypto market cap dropped 4.66% to $2.23T. So prices and vibes are sinking together. Lovely.
The Inflow Tank Is Running Dry
Year-to-date Bitcoin inflows shriveled to $1.2B.
That's down from $2.6B last week and $3.9B two weeks ago. See a pattern?
Total AUM slid to $141B from $148B, the lowest since early April.
The Altcoin Story
Ethereum dropped $257M in outflows.
And barely any altcoins pulled in even $1M. The winners' circle was tiny:
XRP: $20.3M
Hyperliquid (HYPE): $10.8M
NEAR Protocol: $7.6M
When that's your top three, the "positive flow basket" is basically a teacup.
Where the Money Fled
US: $1.63B out (leading the exit, naturally)
Germany: $25.7M out, reversing its earlier calm
Sweden: $6.6M out
Hong Kong: $4.5M out
So why the rush for the door? CoinShares' James Butterfill points to two things: geopolitical risk-off jitters (Iran tensions) and fading hope around regulation like the CLARITY Act.
Put simply? Spooked traders plus a regulatory sugar high wearing off.
TL;DR
Crypto funds saw $1.67B in outflows, the third straight negative week and second-worst of 2026.
Bitcoin drove it with $1.438B out, its largest outflow of the year.
Sentiment hit "Extreme Fear" (23) as the market cap fell 4.66% to $2.23T.
YTD Bitcoin inflows collapsed to $1.2B; total AUM dropped to $141B.
Only 5 altcoins drew inflows, led by XRP ($20.3M), HYPE ($10.8M), and NEAR ($7.6M).
Blame Iran-related risk-off mood plus fading CLARITY Act optimism.
1. Buy the Extreme Fear Dip
The Fear & Greed Index sitting at 23 ("Extreme Fear") has historically marked zones where long-term buyers get rewarded. Sentiment this washed-out rarely lasts.
📌 Action: Dollar-cost average into $IBIT ( ▼ 6.03% ) or $BTC-USD in small tranches while fear stays elevated. Scale in, don't lump in.
2. Position for the CLARITY Act Catalyst
Fading regulatory optimism is dragging flows now, but the bill hasn't died. Any positive movement could snap sentiment back fast.
📌 Action: Hold a core $IBIT ( ▼ 6.03% ) or $ETHA ( ▼ 4.83% ) position and set alerts on CLARITY Act vote news. Add on confirmed progress, not rumors.
3. Rotate Toward the Survivors
While 6 of 11 altcoins lost flow, XRP, HYPE, and NEAR still pulled inflows. Relative strength during a bleed often signals where money rotates first on the rebound.
📌 Action: Build a small watchlist of $XRP-USD, $HYPE-USD, $NEAR-USD and accumulate the strongest performer once market cap stabilizes.
A NOTE WORTH PAYING ATTENTION TO: Crypto in "Extreme Fear" can stay there or fall further, so size every position assuming it could drop more before it recovers.