Sponsored by
In today’s post:
😬 The Catch Nobody's Talking About
💀 SpaceX Just Killed The Hype
📈 Musk just said WHAT?
Free TikTok Shop Starter Guide
For a limited time, get our TikTok Shop starter resource folder, including a case study showing how we scaled from $0 to $90K/month in 90 days.
You’ll also get our creator approval guide plus a sample P&L to better understand channel profitability.
😬 The Catch Nobody's Talking About
Trump dropped the news Sunday night: a deal with Iran is done.
He also reopened the Strait of Hormuz "toll-free" and yanked the US naval blockade on the spot.
Quick reminder: roughly one fifth of the world's oil sails through that strait.
So when it's blocked, markets sweat. When it reopens, they throw a party.
And throw a party they did.
The bigger deal here? Iran actually confirmed it too.
Tehran had been playing hard to get for weeks, casting doubt right up until the last minute. Then their Deputy Foreign Minister came out and said yes, it's real.
Both sides plan to formally sign on June 19th in Switzerland.
What's actually in the deal
Both sides stop shooting at each other
The Strait of Hormuz reopens
The US naval blockade ends
Fighting in Lebanon stops
After 60 days, nuclear talks begin
Notice that last one? That's the catch.
This isn't peace. It's a timeout.
The hard stuff (nuclear program, frozen assets, sanctions) gets shoved into a 60-day window.
How markets reacted
Investors did what they always do when fear fades. They ripped out the "war premium."
Oil tanked:
Brent down 3.36% to $83.80
WTI down 3.94% to $81
Stocks went the other way:
Nasdaq 100 futures +1.43%
S&P 500 futures +0.90%
Dow futures +0.68%
Cheaper oil, weaker dollar, higher stocks, less panic. The classic relief trade.
Why you shouldn't pop the champagne yet
A truce is not a treaty.
Israel is the wildcard. Recent Israeli strikes in Lebanon show how fast diplomacy can flip back into fireworks. If Israel doesn't get solid assurances on Hezbollah and Iran's regional role, why would it play along?
Then there's the nuclear question, the hardest part of all. Iran reportedly agrees to not build nukes and water down its enriched uranium. But promises mean nothing without inspections and verification.
And the money fight is brewing too. The US wants Iran to earn sanctions relief step by step. Iran wants its frozen cash now. See the problem?
Oh, and the deal isn't even signed yet. Plenty can go wrong before June 19th.
Markets are pricing in relief. That's fair. But relief and resolution are not the same thing.
Peace takes a lot longer than a good headline.
Be honest, do you actually trust this Iran deal?
TL;DR
US and Iran reached a preliminary deal, signing expected June 19th in Switzerland
Trump reopened the Strait of Hormuz and lifted the naval blockade, where roughly 20% of global oil flows
Markets stripped out the "war premium": oil dropped, equity futures jumped
It's an interim deal, the hard stuff (nuclear talks, sanctions, frozen assets) is pushed into a 60-day window
Israel is the biggest near-term risk, especially after recent strikes in Lebanon
Relief is not the same as lasting peace, and nothing's signed yet
Learn AI in 5 minutes a day
You don't have to scroll every AI thread, track every new tool, or watch every demo.
The Rundown AI breaks it all down for you — the latest AI news, tools, and tutorials in one free 5-minute email every morning.
Trusted by 2M+ professionals at Apple, Google, and NASA.
There's a company growing revenue 69% year-over-year that most investors still file under "social media." That label is the mistake. And it might be the opportunity.
Here's the tell: when you Google a mortgage lender, a pair of running shoes, or a software bug, you probably add one word to the search. "Reddit." So does everyone else.
That's declared intent. People telling the world exactly what they're about to buy, in their own words. Meta has to guess what you want. This company just reads what you typed.
Q1 2026 numbers: revenue $663M (+69%), ad revenue $625M (+74%), Daily Active Uniques 126.8M (+17%). Monetization is sprinting ahead of user growth, which means each user is getting more valuable, not less.
And the AI flood everyone's scared of? It's a tailwind here. This company licenses its archive of real human discussion to model developers at gross margins north of 90%.
The market hasn't finished repricing this from "social platform" to "intent and data asset." That gap is the whole setup. Once it closes, the easy money's gone.
In today's Premium+ deep dive, we break down:
Why the market keeps misclassifying this stock and what closes the gap
The exact "intent vs attention" framework we're using to value it
The one risk that could sink the entire thesis
What to watch as ad monetization and AI licensing scale
This is exactly the kind of mispricing we built Premium+ to catch. Stop scrolling. Start positioning.
💀 SpaceX Just Killed The Hype
SpaceX just pulled off its historic market debut. And suddenly, the hype around a flood of mega-IPOs this year is cooling off.
Prediction markets had been betting big on more blockbusters. Now they're hedging.
Everyone still thinks Anthropic and OpenAI go public this year. They're just less sure than they were a week ago.
Here's how the odds slid:
Anthropic IPO by Dec 31
Polymarket: dropped to 75% from 90% Saturday (dipped as low as 69%)
Kalshi: holding firm at 90%
OpenAI IPO by year-end
Kalshi: fell to 62% from a high of 88% Tuesday
Polymarket: slid to 55% from 77% Wednesday
So the smart money got cold feet. Why?
The White House Drama
Anthropic's senior tech staff flew to Washington this weekend.
The mission? Smooth over a fight that got the U.S. government to restrict access to its most advanced AI models.
Nothing says "great time to IPO" like the feds limiting your flagship product.
States aren't waiting around either.
They're rolling out their own AI rules, even as Trump pushes to keep AI policy federal and hands-off.
More red tape, more uncertainty, more reasons for traders to second-guess the timeline.
TL;DR
SpaceX's historic IPO cooled expectations for more blockbuster listings this year
Anthropic IPO odds on Polymarket fell to 75% from 90%, while Kalshi stays at 90%
OpenAI odds dropped to 62% on Kalshi and 55% on Polymarket
Anthropic staff are in DC trying to fix a dispute that got its top AI models restricted
States are pushing ahead with their own AI rules despite Trump wanting federal control
Bottom line: the IPOs are still likely, just no longer a sure thing
📈 Musk just said WHAT?
SpaceX stock popped 19.6% today. The reason? Elon did some Elon things on X over the weekend.
He casually floated a revenue target so big it makes Wall Street's models look shy.
The claim: SpaceX could hit roughly $1 trillion in revenue by 2030. And if not 2030, he'd be "surprised" if it didn't clear $1T by 2031.
For context, SpaceX made $18.67 billion in 2025.
So he's basically saying revenue will grow 50x in five years.
But what do the actual analysts think?
Morgan Stanley penciled in about $160 billion by 2028 and $330 billion by 2030.
Musk's number is roughly 3x higher than the bullish professionals. Bold.
The catch nobody's tweeting about:
SpaceX revenue did jump nicely (up from $14.02 billion in 2024). Good.
But the company also posted a $4.94 billion net loss, thanks to heavy spending on AI and other shiny projects.
Growing fast and burning cash? Name a more iconic duo.
Last week's IPO was record-breaking. It raised $75 billion and closed day one at a ~$2.1 trillion market cap.
That instantly made it one of the biggest public companies in America.
It also made Musk the world's first trillionaire on paper.
Will SpaceX actually 50x in five years? Maybe Mars gets a Starbucks first. But betting against this guy hasn't aged well lately.
Musk says SpaceX hits $1 TRILLION in revenue by 2030. You say...
TL;DR
SpaceX stock rose ~6% premarket after Musk teased a massive revenue goal on X.
He claims SpaceX could hit $1 trillion revenue by 2030, possibly 2031.
That's a 50x jump from 2025's $18.67 billion.
Morgan Stanley's bullish estimate is just $330 billion by 2030, far below Musk's number.
SpaceX is growing fast but posted a $4.94 billion net loss on heavy AI spending.
Last week's record IPO valued it at ~$2.1 trillion and made Musk the first trillionaire.