🚨 The Fed Just Defied Trump

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^{𝘐𝘯 𝘮𝘢𝘬𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘢𝘯 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘥𝘦𝘤𝘪𝘴𝘪𝘰𝘯, 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘰𝘳𝘴 𝘮𝘶𝘴𝘵 𝘳𝘦𝘭𝘺 𝘰𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘪𝘳 𝘰𝘸𝘯 𝘦𝘹𝘢𝘮𝘪𝘯𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘪𝘴𝘴𝘶𝘦𝘳 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘮𝘴 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘰𝘧𝘧𝘦𝘳𝘪𝘯𝘨, 𝘪𝘯𝘤𝘭𝘶𝘥𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘮𝘦𝘳𝘪𝘵𝘴 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘳𝘪𝘴𝘬𝘴 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘰𝘭𝘷𝘦𝘥. 𝘋𝘐𝘛 𝘈𝘨𝘛𝘦𝘤𝘩 𝘩𝘢𝘴 𝘧𝘪𝘭𝘦𝘥 𝘢 𝘍𝘰𝘳𝘮 𝘊 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘚𝘦𝘤𝘶𝘳𝘪𝘵𝘪𝘦𝘴 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘌𝘹𝘤𝘩𝘢𝘯𝘨𝘦 𝘊𝘰𝘮𝘮𝘪𝘴𝘴𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘪𝘯 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘯𝘦𝘤𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩 𝘪𝘵𝘴 𝘰𝘧𝘧𝘦𝘳𝘪𝘯𝘨, 𝘢 𝘤𝘰𝘱𝘺 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘪𝘤𝘩 𝘮𝘢𝘺 𝘣𝘦 𝘰𝘣𝘵𝘢𝘪𝘯𝘦𝘥 𝘩𝘦𝘳𝘦: https://bit.ly/4bzuWCi​  ​}

The Fed just raised rates. Its boss was Trump's own pick.

Kevin Warsh, whom Trump picked earlier this year to run the Fed, just delivered the first rate hike in more than three years.

Trump responded the way you'd expect: all caps.

Here's what happened:

The Fed raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%.

The vote was unanimous. Nobody in the room was on Team Cut.

Warsh's reasoning: inflation is stubbornly high, so the economy needs cooling down. The Fed also signaled more hikes could be coming because the economy keeps running hotter than expected.

In simple terms? The thermostat is going down, and nobody asked the White House.

Trump posted that the U.S. should have the lowest interest rates in the world, at 1% or less.

His argument? America is "the Best Credit in the World — BY FAR."

He also claimed the U.S. would make at least $1.5 trillion a year if it stopped trading with every country it runs a deficit with. That's a number in the ballpark of Spain's entire economy, so take it with a large pinch of salt.

Notably, he didn't name Warsh or criticise him personally. He just ended with: "LOWER THE INTEREST RATES FOR THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, AND FAST!"

Subtle as a foghorn, but technically polite.

Spokesman Kush Desai called the hike "rather unfortunate" on Fox News.

His case against it:

He also warned higher rates will stall the economy's momentum, pointing specifically at rising mortgage rates hitting consumers.

So the Fed says inflation is sticky. The White House says it's just oil. Somebody is going to be very wrong.

Should you care about a boss-versus-Fed spat? If you borrow money, own stocks, or hold cash, yes.

The big question is whether the Fed holds its ground under political pressure. So far, a unanimous vote says it's not blinking.

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America wants its factories back. The bill? Up to $6.5 trillion.

That's bigger than Germany's entire economy. Just to rebuild what the US spent 70 years shipping overseas.

Here's the damage report.

In the 1950s, manufacturing was nearly 28% of US GDP. Today it's 9%.

Decades of globalization and cheap overseas production did that. Great for the price of your TV. Less great when a pandemic hits and nobody can find a microchip.

Now the US leans on foreign suppliers for the stuff that really matters:

Pandemic shortages plus rising geopolitical tension turned "bring manufacturing home" into something rare in Washington: a bipartisan priority.

Both parties agreeing on something. Mark your calendars.

Private equity giant Apollo Global Management laid out just how hollowed out things got since the 1980s and 90s:

That's roughly 90% of the big defense players gone. The rest merged into a handful of giants.

Even products stamped "assembled in the USA" often run on imported parts and raw materials. The label says America. The supply chain says passport required.

There's some good news. US construction spending on manufacturing and oil and gas projects tripled in the three years after the pandemic, hitting around $250 billion.

The catch? It's lopsided.

Most of that money went into computer and electronics manufacturing, mainly chip factories and compute infrastructure for AI. Everything else is still waiting its turn.

Apollo ran two scenarios:

And here's the important bit: government incentives won't cover it. That capital has to come from companies, lenders, and private investors.

Which is a very convenient conclusion for a firm whose whole business is private capital. Still, the math checks out.

Apollo's plan is targeted. The idea is strategic self-sufficiency: build capacity where a supply shock would hurt the economy or national security most.

The priority list:

Backing all of it up? Robotics, AI-enabled design, and 3D printing, to make up for expensive and scarce factory labor.

If trillions really do flow into these sectors over the next decade, these are the areas where the capital is pointed. Worth knowing where the money is heading, even if the timeline is long and politics can change the plan fast.

A multi-trillion dollar rebuild doesn't happen in a quarter. It happens over years. Probably with a few speeches in between.

The Fed just hiked rates. First time in over three years.

And nobody on the committee argued about it. The vote was 12-0.

That's quite the mood swing. Back in July, three officials dissented. Now everyone's suddenly singing from the same hymn sheet.

The Fed raised its benchmark rate by 0.25 percentage points, taking it to a range of 3.75% to 4.00%.

The goal: cool demand and drag inflation back to earth.

Why now? Because inflation has sat above the Fed's 2% target for more than five years.

Five years. That's longer than most people's New Year's resolutions last. Combined.

The Fed's dot plot (basically officials guessing where rates are headed) says one more hike is likely before the end of 2026.

Hoping rate cuts would rescue your remortgage plans? Put the champagne back in the fridge.

Then there's the sneaky number. The Fed's long-run rate forecast crept up to 3.2%, from 3.1%.

Looks tiny. Says a lot. Policymakers think the "neutral" rate (the level that neither speeds up nor slows the economy) has shifted higher for good.

The era of dirt-cheap money isn't walking back through that door.

Here's the awkward bit. The economy is doing better than expected.

Officials raised their GDP growth forecasts and cut their unemployment forecasts. Lovely.

Except they also raised their inflation forecasts. Less lovely.

A strong economy with sticky prices is like a car that runs brilliantly but won't stop accelerating. Somebody has to tap the brakes.

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh refused to say what comes next. Instead he offered "backward guidance," explaining why the Fed hiked after pausing in July. Three reasons:

Backward guidance from an institution whose whole job is looking ahead. Bold strategy. Let's see if it pays off.

Borrowing stays expensive. Mortgages, credit cards, and car loans aren't getting cheaper while the Fed is in hiking mode.

Savers get a small win. Higher rates generally keep interest on cash and savings accounts more attractive.

Rate-sensitive stocks feel the heat. Growth companies that thrive on cheap money tend to wobble when the Fed turns hawkish.

And the Fed is watching inflation data like a hawk. Every hot print makes that second hike more likely.