The Ferrari Dip You Missed 🏎️

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THE FERRARI DIP YOU MISSED 🏎️ 

Ferrari just did something that made Wall Street spill its espresso. It lowered the throttle on its long-term growth targets. But if you know Ferrari, that’s probably part of the plan.

Let’s take this for a spin.

The Setup: Ferrari’s New 2030 Game Plan

On October 9, 2025, Ferrari held its Capital Markets Day. It’s the kind of event where rich people wear loafers with no socks and talk about EBITDA margins.

They dropped fresh 2025 guidance (slightly higher) and long-term 2030 targets (a little meh). Management now sees:

• €9 billion in 2030 revenue, implying around 5% annual growth from 2025 levels

• Only 20% of models being fully electric by 2030, down from the earlier 40% goal

In other words, Ferrari basically said, “We’ll grow... but not too much.”

Investors weren’t thrilled. The stock skidded about -16% after the announcement. But here’s where it gets interesting: Ferrari always sets the bar low, then drifts right over it.

Underpromise, Then Lap Everyone

If you’ve followed Ferrari before, you know their playbook: tell the market you’ll drive 100 mph, then quietly floor it to 130.

Management has a six-year streak of beating guidance, and it’s not by accident. They limit production to keep demand sky-high, then boost profits through personalisation and higher-margin models. Shipments were basically flat in 2024, yet EBITDA still jumped double digits. That’s the magic of scarcity and pricing power.

CEO Benedetto Vigna even told investors, “We must manage scarcity.” 

That’s code for: they’ll keep supply tight, charge more for custom details, and make money without selling more cars.

This is how Ferrari compounds wealth. Not by flooding the streets, but by making each car feel like a limited-edition collectible.

Buying When Others Panic

When the market knocked the stock down 16%, I invested. The classic Warren Buffett proverb. “Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful”. 

This setup screams “opportunity.”

Here’s why:

• The company raised 2025 guidance, meaning short-term momentum is still strong.

• The new 2030 targets are almost certainly floors, not ceilings.

• Ferrari’s historical pattern suggests they’ll raise targets mid-cycle once margins are de-risked.

Even using ultra-conservative math, the upside looks juicy.

The Math: Turning Guidance Into Gains

Let’s talk numbers, because that’s where this gets fun.

If we assume normalized 2027 EPS = $13 (slightly below consensus), and a forward P/E = 40× (a reasonable luxury multiple), then the fair value sits near $520/share.

From current price, that’s about +30% upside, or ~28% within nine months if the stock reverts to its historical valuation range of 40–42× forward earnings. Wall Street agrees with me. The average price target among analysts is $522 or over 32% upside.

Even if Ferrari’s “slower” growth spooks some investors, it’s still trading at around 39× forward earnings today — not cheap, but justified for a company that prints luxury margins like art.

The risk-reward is asymmetric:

• Bull case: $520 target = +30% gain

• Bear case: $450 = +12.5% gain

• Time horizon: 9–12 months

That’s what you call a setup with more upside than downside.

The Bear Case (And Why It’s Still Fine)

Sure, there’s a “bear” case — but it’s more like a growling housecat.

If Ferrari’s electric “Elettrica” models flop or margins compress, we might see a forward P/E of 35× on $12.80 EPS, giving a price near $450 by 2026. That’s still a 12.5% return.

Basically, even the bad outcome is a positive one.

The bigger risk? Ferrari becomes too protective of its brand. If management focuses more on preserving prestige than rewarding shareholders, earnings could flatten. But given Ferrari’s obsession with excellence, that’s a risk worth parking cash in.

And for perspective: Tesla trades on “narrative optionality.” Ferrari trades on brand durability. Both command premium multiples, but only one sells cars that make grown men cry.

If you can’t get your own Ferrari yet, it might be time to get one of these to give yourself some inspiration.

The Chart Says ‘Greed Time’

The 14-day RSI is below 30. That’s trader-speak for “this stock is oversold.” It’s rare to get Ferrari on sale. It’s only happened one other time in the past 18 months.

My plan:

• Take profit at $500/share within 9 months

• Hold long-term if it doesn’t hit that mark

Either way, the setup is clean: limited downside, attractive upside, and a management team that loves playing the long game.

Final Lap: Why I’m Bullish

Ferrari’s pullback isn’t a red flag. It’s a red carpet.

The 2030 targets look conservative because they are. Management is setting the stage to beat them later. The business model remains bulletproof: low volume, high margins, and a brand so powerful it sells exclusivity itself.

With 2025 guidance raised, a sub-40× multiple, and a history of outperforming, this is a classic asymmetric trade wrapped in Italian leather.

Ferrari isn’t racing for speed. It’s cruising for perfection. And right now, the road ahead looks beautifully smooth.

TL;DR

• Ferrari’s new 2030 targets look “meh” but are likely sandbagged

• 5% annual revenue growth to €9B = conservative baseline

• Shipments flat, but margins compounding double digits

• EV targets lowered from 40% → 20% by 2030

• Stock down 16%, now trading at ~39× forward earnings

• Base case: $500–520 target within 9 months (~25% upside)

• Bear case: $450 = still a 12.5% gain

• Management has 6 straight years of beating guidance