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 Gainers📈 & Losers📉

Our Biggest Gainers & Losers of the Day in the $100,000 Build Portfolio

For the 3rd December 2024:

• The Low-Key MVP 🤫

• Invest & Save Lives At the Same Time! 🩺 

The Low-Key MVP 🤫

I’m looking for the low-key MVPs of the tech world. Nothing flashy like Tesla or hyped-up like Nvidia. Something under the radar where there’s value to be had.

Yesterday I had TSMC, today I’ve got…. 🥁 … ASML!

The Elevator Pitch 🛗

ASML is basically the only company making EUV lithography machines. Those machines help make the smartest chips going. Without ASML, there’s no AI boom, no cutting-edge semiconductors, & definitely no fancy chips in your latest iPhone.

What a beautiful spot to find yourself in.

ASML’s tech is a non-negotiable. AI data centers, cutting-edge semiconductors & all the latest gadgets need it. It’s not a “nice to have”. It’s a “must have”.

And that podium position showed up in the stock price. They killed it in 2022-23. Share price flew up 215% from $350 to $1,100. 🚀

But have you heard that old, classic phrase? It goes a little something like “what goes up, must come down”.

ASML didn’t get an exemption pass.

ASML in the Discount Bin 🗑️ 

The stock’s now down 40% since July. They’ve had a few things working against them. Here they are to bring you up to speed:

1/ Overcooked: It shot up too fast & needed a breather. Very, very rarely do stocks just go parabolic. Healthy growth means you need to cool off every once in a while. You wouldn’t win a marathon if you sprinted from the finish line, right? 🏃‍♂️ 

2/ China drama: Tariff talk spooked investors. Get ready for more of where this come from. It’s Trump’s new buzz word.

3/ Guidance woes: Sales forecast for 2025 dropped from “great” to “good”. Cue the overreaction sell-off.

Since the end of October it’s found some legs around $605 & has been pretty range bound since then so we might’ve found a bottom.

I liked ASML in the $800’s so you’d be right to think I love it at $600. That’s exactly why….

I’m Buying the Dip 👀

ASML isn’t some one-hit wonder. Their fundamentals still slap. $8.13 billion in quarterly revenue, a strong position in the AI boom & a price-to-earnings ratio that’s practically the best it’s ever been, I’m really struggling to come up with a bear case.

The global AI market is growing at 36% per year!. That growth cannot happen without the machines ASML are providing.

Projections have their earnings climbing from ~$26/share in 2025 to ~$32 in 2026.

That’s why most of wall street have “$900+ in 12 months” written next to ASML in their notebooks. Some have even come up with $1,100+ which’d make it a 62% gain. 🤯 

I fall more in the conservative camp & expect we’ll see somewhere around $930ish in the not so distant future.

Risks? Of Course. 👻

I said I’d struggle with a bear case & I think the biggest risks are the general market & thing’s we’ve already had a taste of.

Tariff trouble with China could slow things down a little. And if AI as a whole slows down then there won’t be any need for ASML’s fancy machinery.

I think these are very fringe worries. They’ve navigated through things like this before & their near-monopoly status on essential tech makes it tough to bet against them.

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That’s all! See you same time tomorrow 👋 

P.S Hit reply & let me know what you thought of today’s newsletter. All feedback is welcomed ❤️