The NATO Betrayal List Is Out 😨

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The White House is reportedly planning to move U.S. troops away from NATO allies who didn't back the Iran war effort.

Think of it as a loyalty points system. Back America, get a base. Didn't? Enjoy the empty barracks.

The plan stops short of a full NATO exit — which Trump legally can't do without Congress anyway — but it's still a serious shot across the bow at European partners.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt didn't mince words:

"It's quite sad that NATO turned their backs on the American people... when it's the American people who have been funding their defense."

So who's in the doghouse?

Both Spain and Germany could see U.S. bases shuttered under the proposal.

And who's getting the upgrade?

Poland, Romania, Lithuania, and Greece are reportedly in line for additional troops. These are the allies already hitting or exceeding NATO defense spending targets and who greenlit U.S. base access without hesitation.

If you want to understand why Eastern Europe keeps ending up at the centre of these power shifts, Peter Zeihan's been mapping it out for years (in a way that'll genuinely change how you read headlines like this)

This is essentially Washington flipping the NATO funding argument on its head. Instead of threatening to leave, they're threatening to redeploy — punishing the freeloaders and rewarding the team players.

Whether this is a negotiating tactic or a genuine strategic shift? That's the real question.

The Fed's favourite inflation gauge just came in hotter than expected. Again.

Core PCE rose 0.4% in February, matching January's pace and nudging past the 0.3% consensus. Year-over-year, that's 3.0% — still a full percentage point above the Fed's 2% target, which it hasn't hit in roughly five years.

Cool? Not really. Cooling? Barely.

Why core PCE matters: It strips out food and energy (both notoriously volatile) to give a cleaner read on where prices are actually heading. The Fed treats it like its North Star.

Headline PCE — food and energy included — came in at 2.8% Y/Y, bang in line with estimates. Nothing alarming there. The problem is everything else.

Personal income dropped 0.1% in February. The consensus expected a +0.4% gain. That's a big fat faceplant.

Meanwhile, consumer spending climbed 0.5%. People are spending more and earning less. The personal saving rate slid to 4.0%, down from 4.5% in January and 5.2% a year ago.

So what does it mean? Americans are dipping into savings to fund their lifestyle. That's not a sustainable trend.

People bought cars and paid their doctors. Fun was cancelled.

Weak income, sticky inflation, and a GDP that keeps getting revised down. David Russell at TradeStation called it straight: stagflation is looking worse than expected, and that's before factoring in the Iran conflict's impact on energy prices.

The 1970s comparisons are getting louder. Nobody wanted that.

Forget it. At least for now.

Art Hogan at B. Riley Wealth pointed out this data doesn't even capture the recent spike in energy prices yet. Olu Sonola at Fitch put it plainly: tariff passthrough plus rising energy costs gives the Fed every reason to sit on its hands. Rate cuts are being pushed further down the calendar.

Friday's CPI print will be the first real test of whether the Iran situation is feeding into prices. Watch that number closely.

Iran fired 7 drones yesterday.

The day before? 149.

That's the kind of de-escalation that makes analysts cautiously optimistic and everyone else deeply nervous.

Jim Bianco of Bianco Research flagged the shift on Thursday, noting that all seven drones were aimed at Bahrain, not commercial shipping. The big question he's asking: will the lull last long enough to get ships moving again?

Short answer: not yet.

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is still sitting well below 10% of normal. Seven vessels passed through in the past day. The usual figure? Around 140.

That's a blockade with a ceasefire label on it.

Iran is still controlling how ships transit the waterway, and the backlog is expected to take weeks to clear even if things calm down completely.

So yes, fewer drones is good. But the Strait is still basically a ghost town with oil tankers.

1. Ride the Shipping Squeeze
With Hormuz running at under 10% capacity, shipping companies rerouting around the strait are printing money on premium freight rates. This isn't a rumour, it's happening now.

📌 Action: Look at tanker stocks like $FRO ( ▼ 3.68% ) and $DHT ( ▼ 3.0% ) which directly benefit from elevated day rates during supply disruptions. Hold while the backlog clears.

2. Stack the Energy Infrastructure Play
Less flow through Hormuz means more pressure on alternative energy infrastructure. LNG terminals, pipelines, and storage facilities become critical when the world's busiest oil chokepoint stutters.

📌 Action: Consider energy infrastructure ETFs like $MLPA ( ▼ 0.28% ) or individual names like $ET ( ▲ 0.05% ). These benefit quietly while everyone else watches oil headlines.

3. Buy the Defence Tailwind
Seven drones or 149, the message is the same: military spending in the region isn't slowing down. Western defence contractors get called every time a drone gets fired.

📌 Action: Add exposure via $ITA ( ▼ 0.18% ) (aerospace and defence ETF) or names like $RTX ( ▼ 0.14% ) and $LMT ( ▼ 0.74% ) which supply the hardware that fills every headline like this one.