In partnership with
In today’s post:
The Rarest Warning In 25 Years 🤯
While you watched Nvidia...
July 7 Could Change Everything 📆
Investors see ANOTHER return from Masterworks (!!!!)
That’s 6 sales in 7 months. 29 all time. And the performance?
16.5%, 17.6%, and 17.8%, net annualized returns on sold works held longer than one year (See all 29 at Masterworks.com)
It’s not from stocks, private equity, or real estate… it’s from contemporary and post war art. Crazy, right?
With Masterworks, you don’t need to be a BILLIONAIRE to invest in multi-million dollar art anymore.
Historically, the segment overall has had attractive appreciation and low correlation to stocks.*
Masterworks targets works featuring legends like Banksy, Basquiat, and Picasso, identifying what they believe to have significant long-term appreciation potential, not just at the artist level but at the level of individual artworks.
As one of the largest players in the art market, with $1.3 billion invested over 500 artworks, they pass critical advantages through to their 70,000+ members to add art to their portfolios strategically.
Looking to diversify your investments in 2026?
*According to Masterworks data. Investing involves risk. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. See important Reg A disclosures at masterworks.com/cd.
The Rarest Warning In 25 Years 🤯
The Fed might not be done hiking rates after all.
Traders are now pricing in an 80%+ chance of at least one more rate hike before end of 2026, according to interest-rate swaps data. That's a big swing from where markets were just weeks ago, when everyone was merrily pencilling in rate cuts.
Turns out, inflation didn't get the memo.
Treasury yields are going full send.
The 30-Year yield hit 5.20% on Tuesday — its highest level since 2007. That's a 19-year high. The bond market is basically yelling "rates are staying high" and nobody in the equity market wants to hear it.
The 10-Year yield jumped 9 basis points to 4.67% — its highest since January 2025. Why does that matter? Because the 10-Year is the puppet master behind mortgages, corporate loans, and consumer credit. When it moves, everything moves.
Even short-term debt got hit, with the 2-Year yield advancing to 4.12% — levels last seen in late February 2025.
Here's where it gets interesting.
Schwab strategist Kevin Gordon flagged something that hasn't happened in 25 years: stocks and bond yields are now moving in sharply opposite directions.
The rolling 30-day correlation between the S&P 500 and the 10-Year yield has crashed to minus 0.68 — the lowest reading since September 1999. That's dot-com bubble territory.
In simple English? Bonds are selling off while stocks drop too. That's the scary version. Usually they move in opposite directions as a hedge. Right now? Both are flashing red.
Over the past five sessions, the 10-Year is up ~20 basis points and the S&P is down nearly 2%. Not a great vibe.
The Fed hasn't officially said more hikes are coming.
But markets aren't waiting for an invitation. Traders are positioning for a world where the Fed keeps conditions tight for longer because inflation simply isn't falling fast enough toward that 2% target.
The "soft landing" dream isn't dead. But it just checked into a more expensive hotel.
TL;DR
Traders now price 80%+ odds of another Fed rate hike by end of 2026
The 30-Year Treasury yield hit 5.20% — a 19-year high
The 10-Year jumped to 4.67%, pulling mortgage and loan rates higher with it
Stocks and bond yields are moving inversely at levels not seen since the dot-com peak in 1999
The Fed hasn't confirmed more hikes, but markets are already pricing in rates staying higher for longer
Inflation refusing to hit 2% is the villain in this story — and it's not leaving quietly
1. Ride the Rate Hike Wave with Short-Duration Treasuries
Markets are screaming that rates are staying higher for longer. Short-duration bonds benefit when yields rise and carry less risk than long-dated debt getting hammered right now.
📌 Action: Add exposure to $SGOV ( ▲ 0.01% ) or $BIL ( ▲ 0.02% ) (short-term T-Bill ETFs). You collect a solid yield (~5%) while staying defensive. Park cash here instead of letting it rot in a savings account.
2. Go Long Financials — Banks Love High Rates
Higher-for-longer is a nightmare for borrowers but a dream for banks. Net interest margins expand when rates stay elevated, and financials are one of the few sectors that actually wins in this environment.
📌 Action: Look at $XLF ( ▼ 1.24% ) (Financial Select Sector SPDR) or individual names like $JPM ( ▼ 1.67% ) and $BAC ( ▲ 0.02% ). If the Fed hikes again, these are likely to catch a bid.
3. Rotate Into Real Assets — Gold Loves Uncertainty
When bonds sell off AND stocks drop together, investors need somewhere to hide. That somewhere is usually gold. The breakdown in the traditional stock/bond hedge is exactly the kind of macro anxiety that sends gold higher.
📌 Action: Add $GLD ( ▼ 1.66% ) or $PHYS ( ▼ 1.71% ) to your portfolio as a hedge against the chaos. Not a trade — a position. Sized appropriately as portfolio insurance.
10 AI Stocks to Lead the Next Decade
AI isn’t a tech trend – it’s a full-blown, multi-trillion dollar race, and 10 companies are already pulling ahead.
These are the innovators driving real revenue, attracting institutional attention, and positioning for massive growth.
Get all 10 tickers in The 10 Best AI Stocks to Own in 2026, free today.
While you watched Nvidia...
Michael Burry is buying again. And he's not being subtle about it.
The Big Short guy just revealed he's added to four positions: MercadoLibre $MELI ( ▲ 0.56% ), Adobe $ADBE ( ▼ 0.25% ), PayPal $PYPL ( ▼ 1.25% ), and Lululemon $LULU ( ▼ 0.87% ).
Here's the breakdown:
MELI added in the mid-$1,500s (he calls it a "low normal" position)
ADBE picked up in the low $250s
LULU bought around $120
PYPL bumped up to a "normal/full" position
So while everyone's staring at Nvidia and the Magnificent 7 circus, Burry's quietly loading up on beaten-down names flying under the radar.
His words: "These stocks are part of the mass whale fall happening away from the main spectacle."
Translation? He thinks the real opportunity is in the stuff nobody's talking about. Classic Burry.
MELI is Latin America's answer to Amazon + PayPal combined. Adobe's been crushed on AI fears. PayPal's been left for dead. Lululemon's had a rough year on slowing growth concerns.
Burry's read: oversold, overlooked, undervalued. Whether he's early or right on time is the question.
(He was early on the housing crash too. Then very, very right.)
TL;DR
Burry added to MELI, ADBE, PYPL, and LULU across multiple positions
Entry prices: MELI ~$1,500s, ADBE ~$250s, LULU ~$120, PYPL now a full position
He describes these as "whale fall" plays hiding in plain sight
All four names are significantly off their highs and largely ignored by the hype crowd
Burry's thesis: the real alpha is away from the main spectacle
Whether you agree or not, when Burry loads up quietly, it's worth paying attention
July 7 Could Change Everything 📆
The world's most important oil corridor is still shut. And NATO is starting to wonder if it needs to do something about it.
Alliance officials are floating a plan to escort commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz if it stays closed past early July. Bloomberg broke the story Tuesday, citing unnamed officials familiar with the discussions.
It's not a done deal. NATO requires unanimous support, and that's not there yet.
Why this matters: About 20% of the world's oil flows through the Strait. When it's blocked, markets feel it everywhere. From crude prices to shipping costs to your energy bills.
Iran closed the waterway after U.S.-Israeli military operations began there in late February. Europe wasn't exactly rushing to help reopen it, which didn't go down well in Washington.
Trump called NATO a "paper tiger" in April and floated pulling the U.S. out entirely. A classic Trump move — turn a geopolitical standoff into a contract negotiation.
The shift here is significant. NATO previously said it wouldn't act until hostilities ended and a broader international coalition was in place. Now they're discussing moving before either of those conditions are met.
Alliance leaders meet in Ankara on July 7–8. That's your next key date.
Meanwhile, France and the UK aren't waiting around. The two countries are quietly developing their own plan to secure navigation once the fighting stops, with assets already being positioned in the region.
So even if NATO can't agree, someone is likely moving into that strait.
TL;DR
NATO is discussing a Hormuz escort mission for commercial ships if the strait stays closed past early July
Unanimous support still needed — not there yet, but momentum is building
Iran closed the strait following U.S.-Israeli military operations that began in late February
This would be a strategic U-turn for NATO, which previously required a ceasefire before any action
Next key moment: NATO summit in Ankara, July 7–8
France and UK have a backup plan and are already positioning assets in the region
1. Play the Oil Supply Squeeze
The Strait of Hormuz moving 20% of global oil is still shut. Every day it stays closed is a tailwind for crude prices. This isn't a maybe — it's supply disruption in real time.
📌 Action: Add exposure to oil ETFs like $USO ( ▲ 2.46% ) or $BNO ( ▲ 2.01% ). Hold while the strait stays closed. Take profit on any major de-escalation headline.
2. Buy the Defence Build-Up
NATO mobilising, France and the UK pre-positioning assets, alliance spending debates reignited — this is a multi-month catalyst for defence stocks. Geopolitical tension doesn't resolve overnight.
📌 Action: Look at $LMT ( ▼ 0.32% ), $RTX ( ▼ 0.83% ), or the defence ETF $ITA ( ▼ 0.87% ) for broad exposure. European defence names like $BAESY ( ▲ 0.71% ) also benefit as EU nations justify bigger military budgets.
3. Ride the Shipping Chaos
With the Hormuz blocked, tankers are rerouting. Longer routes = more days at sea = higher day rates for tanker operators. This is the same playbook that printed money during the Red Sea disruptions.
📌 Action: Look at tanker stocks like $INSW ( ▼ 2.32% ) or $TNK ( ▼ 1.25% ) — both benefit directly from elevated day rates when key shipping lanes are disrupted.