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In today’s post:
"They'll Sound Insane Now" 🤯
Dalio Knows What Pops AI 🧠
The SpaceX Trap Nobody Sees 😬
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"They'll Sound Insane Now" 🤯
Nvidia's CEO had a packed week at Computex in Taiwan.
But Tuesday night, he slipped away for something more exclusive.
A closed-door pitch to hundreds of financial institutions and ultra-wealthy families in Taipei.
The host? Era, an investment firm run by billionaire Jasper Lau, plus Chailease Holding. Both obsessed with AI and energy infrastructure.
His message to the room full of money: stop worrying.
"Insanely Profitable"
Remember when everyone kept asking whether AI would ever actually make money?
Jensen does. And he thinks those people now sound ridiculous.
"Only for the last six months has the ROI been completely reset," he said. "It is now insanely profitable."
Then the mic drop:
"Give me one example of some crazy person saying that now. They're going to sound insane."
What he’s really saying? The doubters got steamrolled.
It's Not Just Nvidia Eating
Jensen wants you to know the wealth is spreading. So kind.
The partners cashing in too:
Micron $MU ( ▲ 1.45% )
SK hynix
Taiwan Semiconductor $TSM ( ▼ 2.24% )
Basically, the whole AI supply chain is throwing a party.
But Not Everyone's Convinced
Cue the skeptics. Not all analysts are buying the victory laps.
The worry? What happens when the data center building spree finally slows down or stalls?
And what about when today's wildly bullish mood flips to "maybe I'll just take my profits"?
It's a fair question. Parties are great until someone turns the lights on.
TL;DR
Jensen Huang pitched hundreds of billionaire families and financial firms behind closed doors in Taipei.
He says AI's ROI has been "completely reset" in the last six months and is now "insanely profitable."
He mocked the old "what's the ROI?" crowd, saying they'd sound "insane" today.
Partners like Micron, SK hynix, and TSM are reportedly cashing in alongside Nvidia.
Analyst warn the AI mania could end badly if the data center buildout stalls.
The big risk: bullish sentiment flipping to profit-taking.
1. Ride the Picks-and-Shovels Play
Jensen basically named his winners on stage. The AI money isn't just Nvidia, it's the suppliers feeding the beast.
📌 Action: Build a basket of the named partners cashing in: $MU ( ▲ 1.45% ), $TSM ( ▼ 2.24% ), and Nvidia itself $NVDA ( ▼ 3.62% ). Accumulate on dips, not on hype days.
2. Add the Energy Infrastructure Angle
The event hosts weren't random. Era and Chailease are betting on AI and energy infra. Data centers eat power like crazy.
📌 Action: Get exposure to the power side feeding the buildout via utility and grid ETFs like $XLU ( ▼ 0.43% ) or $GRID ( ▼ 0.17% ). It's the trade behind the trade.
3. Respect the Skeptic, Size Accordingly
The worried analyst warning isn't noise. If the data center spree stalls, this whole party deflates fast.
📌 Action: Keep AI exposure as a position, not your whole portfolio. Trim into euphoria, hold core, keep dry powder for the inevitable pullback.
Everyone's panicking about AI capex burning a hole in Big Tech's balance sheet.
One $4.5 trillion company just made the entire debate look silly.
In a single move, it pulled in $80 billion of fresh capital, including a $10 billion check from Berkshire Hathaway. Yes, that Berkshire. Warren Buffett doesn't write $10 billion checks for hype.
The dilution? Less than 2%.
Here's what most people are missing. This company didn't raise because it was desperate. It raised because it spotted something coming, and it wanted the war chest ready before anyone else moved.
Its cloud arm just grew 63% in a single quarter. It's sitting on a $200 billion spending commitment from one of the hottest names in AI. And there's a wave of trillion-dollar IPOs landing this summer that could change the entire funding landscape.
Then there's the line buried in the fine print. A $30 billion detail the company barely explained, that smart investors are still trying to decode.
Trading at just 26x forward earnings while growing faster than every rival except one, this might be the most mispriced megacap on the board right now.
In today's Premium+ deep dive, we break down:
Why this stock still looks cheap at a $4.5 trillion valuation
The exact dilution math, and why under 2% barely dents the thesis
The one fine-print clause that doesn't add up
What the trillion-dollar IPO wave means for your positioning
The market's busy arguing. We're busy positioning.
Stop reacting. Start owning the thesis.
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Dalio Knows What Pops AI 🧠
The billionaire who runs Bridgewater thinks AI is a bubble. And he's pretty sure he knows what pops it.
His take? Every massive tech shift creates a bubble. No exceptions.
"All great technology changes produce bubbles," Dalio told Bloomberg TV on Wednesday.
Here's the trap companies fall into.
Spend like crazy to grab market share and risk overpaying. Or play it safe and watch rivals eat your lunch.
There's no clean middle option.
So when does it all come crashing down?
Dalio says the bubble bursts the moment investors decide to cash out.
His words: "The pricking is the converting of wealth into money."
The party ends when everyone rushes for the exit at the same time.
Think musical chairs, but with trillions of dollars and way fewer seats.
TL;DR
Ray Dalio, Bridgewater founder, says AI is in bubble territory
He argues every major tech revolution creates a bubble, no exceptions
Companies are stuck: overspend on market share or lose it entirely
The bubble pops when investors start converting paper wealth into actual cash
His exact phrase: "the pricking is the converting of wealth into money"
The danger isn't the spending, it's the simultaneous dash for the exit
The SpaceX Trap Nobody Sees 😬
The space trade was flying high. Then gravity showed up.
A broad selloff hit aerospace and defense stocks, and the market's hottest space names took the worst of it. Investors cashed in chips after a rally that turned this sector into Wall Street's favorite casino.
The carnage by early afternoon:
Intuitive Machines $LUNR ( ▼ 14.51% ): down 15.2%
Merlin $MRLN ( ▼ 4.47% ): down 12.8%
Sidus Space $SIDU ( ▼ 12.63% ): down 12.0%
Redwire $RDW ( ▼ 9.52% ): down 9.9%
Satellogic $SATL ( ▼ 9.68% ): down 9.8%
Eve Holding $EVEX ( ▼ 7.1% ): down 8.6%
Kratos $KTOS ( ▼ 7.65% ): down 8.3%
Red Cat $RCAT ( ▼ 7.76% ): down 8.1%
AeroVironment $AVAV ( ▼ 6.3% ): down 7.2%
Rocket Lab $RKLB ( ▼ 6.99% ): down 6.8%
Looks ugly, right? Now zoom out.
The six-month scoreboard tells a different story:
Rocket Lab: up nearly 194%
Intuitive Machines: up more than 320%
Redwire: up about 294%
Satellogic: up more than 456%
Sidus Space: up more than 660%
So a 12% drop on a 660% run? I wouldn’t call it a crash. That's profit-taking with a fancy name.
The SpaceX Elephant in the Room
Here's what's really driving the mania: SpaceX is planning to IPO, and it could be one of the biggest stock market debuts ever.
Investors want a piece of the space economy before that happens. Reusable rockets, moon landings, military drones, satellite internet. If it orbits, they're buying it.
But there's a catch.
Once SpaceX shares hit the market, money could flood toward Elon's giant and away from the smaller players. Why settle for a minnow when the whale finally goes public?
About Those Valuations
Wednesday hinted that investors are getting picky. For months, slapping "space" on a logo was enough to attract buyers.
Reality check: most of these high flyers don't make money.
Intuitive Machines: trailing 12-month net loss of about $109 million
Rocket Lab: loss of roughly $183 million
Redwire: net loss of about $300 million
The air taxi crowd (Archer, Eve, Vertical Aerospace) is also burning cash like it's rocket fuel.
The boring stocks barely flinched:
Boeing $BA ( ▼ 3.27% ): down 1.9%
Northrop Grumman $NOC ( ▼ 1.96% ): down 0.4%
L3Harris $LHX ( ▼ 1.52% ): down 0.7%
Huntington Ingalls $HII ( ▼ 2.08% ): down 0.7%
Investors weren't fleeing defense. They were dumping the speculative moonshots and keeping the steady earners.
The sector still has real tailwinds: rising defense budgets, more satellites going up, booming commercial space. But Wednesday was a quiet reminder that valuations got stretched, and everyone's holding their breath for the SpaceX debut.
TL;DR
Space and defense stocks sold off hard Wednesday, with Intuitive Machines leading the drop at -15.2%.
It's mostly profit-taking. These names are up 194% to 660% over six months.
The SpaceX IPO is fueling the hype but could later drain cash from smaller players.
Most high flyers are deeply unprofitable, with losses from $109M to $300M.
Traditional names like Boeing and Northrop barely moved, so this was a speculative cleanout, not a sector exit.
Real tailwinds remain, but valuations are stretched ahead of SpaceX's debut.
1. Buy the Boring Defense Names
While the speculative moonshots got torched, traditional defense barely flinched. Boeing, Northrop, and L3Harris all moved less than 2%. That's where the steady money hid.
📌 Action: Build a core position in profitable defense via $NOC ( ▼ 1.96% ), $LHX ( ▼ 1.52% ), or $BA ( ▼ 3.27% ). Let the government spending tailwind do the work while you skip the rollercoaster.
2. Wait for the SpaceX Reshuffle
The SpaceX IPO could drain cash from smaller space names once shares go live. That's a known catalyst with a known direction. Don't fight it. Position for it.
📌 Action: Keep dry powder ready and watch the IPO timeline. Let the speculative names cool, then accumulate the survivors with real revenue like $RKLB ( ▼ 6.99% ) on weakness.
3. Demand Profitability Before You Buy the Dip
A 12% drop on a 660% run looks tempting. But most of these names bleed cash. Intuitive Machines lost $109M, Redwire lost $300M. The dip isn't a discount if the business doesn't make money.
📌 Action: Filter the space watchlist by positive cash flow or a real path to it. Only deploy into names that can survive a funding winter, not just ride a hype cycle.