This Drug War Just Got Ugly 💉

THIS DRUG WAR JUST GOT UGLY 💉 

Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk are duking it out for control of the GLP-1 weight loss market. Think of it like Coke vs Pepsi, but instead of sugar water, it’s skinny shots in a pen.

Both companies know there’s one juicy group they can’t ignore: cash-pay customers. These are people without insurance or with insurance that’s about as useful as a chocolate teapot. Normally they’d never be able to afford these pricey drugs, but Lilly and Novo just dropped the entry fee to $499 a month through their own direct-to-consumer pharmacies.

Zepbound (Lilly’s drug) is even sliding through the telemedicine platform Hims & Hers. Novo just teamed up with GoodRx. Funny enough, Novo used to have a thing going with Hims too… until they had a messy breakup over compounded knockoff versions of the drug.

So why the discount? A couple reasons:

1. Copycats. Even though the FDA says shortages are over, compounded versions of these drugs are still floating around. Pharma is trying to undercut the black market with cheaper legit supplies.

2. Politics. President Trump has been making noise about high drug prices. $499 helps keep the spotlight off.

3. Revenue. Novo said about 10% of Wegovy sales already come from cash buyers. That’s a lot of needles in arms.

At the end of the day, Big Pharma is treating weight loss shots like Costco memberships. Lower the price just enough, and suddenly the people who shouldn’t be able to afford it… are lining up to pay anyway.

TL;DR:

• Lilly and Novo cut the price of their weight-loss drugs to $499 for cash buyers.

• Cash-pay customers are uninsured or underinsured and a growing slice of the market.

• Lilly linked up with Hims, Novo linked with GoodRx, then ditched Hims after a fight over knockoffs.

• Discounts fight copycats, please politicians, and expand market share.

• Around 10% of Wegovy sales already come from cash sales.

1. Ride the Weight-Loss Pharma Wave
Cash-pay customers are now a legit growth driver, already making up ~10% of Wegovy sales. The $499 direct-to-consumer push expands their reach even further.
📌 Action: Build long positions in $LLY ( ▲ 2.44% ) and $NVO ( ▲ 1.52% ) . These remain the two kings of GLP-1. Add gradually on pullbacks.

2. Bet on the Enablers
Telemedicine and coupon platforms like Hims & Hers $HIMS ( ▼ 9.21% ) and GoodRx $GDRX ( ▲ 0.78% ) are direct beneficiaries. They’re the distribution arms plugging patients into high-demand drugs without insurance headaches.
📌 Action: Take small-cap growth positions in $HIMS ( ▼ 9.21% ) and $GDRX ( ▲ 0.78% ) . Treat them as leveraged plays on GLP-1 adoption.

3. Play the Healthcare Copycat Crackdown
Compounded versions still exist despite the FDA declaring shortages over. When regulators tighten and knockoffs shrink, branded drug demand climbs.
📌 Action: Consider healthcare ETFs with heavy exposure to biotech and pharma innovation, like $XLV ( ▲ 1.14% ) or $IHE ( ▲ 1.37% ) . Capture the upside of the crackdown boosting branded sales.

UKRAINE LOADS UP A $90B WEAPONS CART 💣️ 

Ukraine just rolled out of Washington with what might be the world’s most expensive shopping spree. President Zelenskyy confirmed that Ukraine has agreed to buy a $90 billion package of U.S. weapons after his latest sit-down in D.C.

This is part of broader talks to secure long-term guarantees from the U.S. that Ukraine won’t be left hanging if Russia keeps pushing.

Oh, and context: Zelenskyy met Trump just a few days after Trump had a meet-and-greet with Putin in Alaska. Yes, that actually happened.

The Deal in a Nutshell

• Ukraine wants $90B worth of U.S. military hardware.

• Once Ukraine reopens exports, the U.S. agreed to buy Ukrainian drones in return.

• Think of it like Costco but the bulk deal is tanks, missiles, and fighter jets instead of toilet paper.

Who Stands to Gain

Defense contractors are circling like seagulls at a beach picnic. We’re talking:

• Lockheed Martin $LMT ( ▲ 1.03% )  

• Raytheon Technologies $RTX ( ▼ 0.03% )  

• Northrop Grumman $NOC ( ▲ 0.75% )  

• General Dynamics $GD ( ▲ 0.75% )  

• L3Harris Technologies $LHX ( ▲ 0.44% )  

• Huntington Ingalls $HII ( ▲ 0.72% )  

• Textron $TXT ( ▲ 0.58% )  

• Boeing $BA ( ▼ 0.52% )  

A $90B order is like a lifetime supply of adrenaline shots for these companies. If it all goes through, shareholders are going to be grinning.

Security Guarantees

Trump’s position? Europe should be the first line of defense since they live next door to the conflict. The U.S. would step in for support but not shoulder the entire load.

Zelenskyy said the specifics of these guarantees will be hammered out within ten days. That’s a short fuse for a deal this complex.

TL;DR

Ukraine is buying $90B in U.S. weapons as part of security talks. The U.S. will later buy Ukrainian drones once exports reopen. Defense contractors like Lockheed, Raytheon, Boeing and friends could feast on this deal. Trump says Europe should handle the front line while the U.S. provides backup.

1. Ride the Defense Contractor Wave
Ukraine’s $90B weapons tab is basically a buffet for U.S. defense giants. Lockheed, Raytheon, Boeing, Northrop, and others are lined up to benefit from orders and long-term contracts.
📌 Action: Accumulate shares in diversified defense ETFs like $ITA ( ▲ 0.08% ) or $PPA ( ▲ 0.08% ) to capture the sector’s upside without betting on just one contractor.

2. Bet on Drone Expansion
The deal includes future U.S. purchases of Ukrainian drones. That signals rising demand across the global drone-defense ecosystem.
📌 Action: Build exposure in companies tied to UAVs and surveillance tech like AeroVironment $AVAV ( ▲ 3.99% ) . Pair it with ETFs like $XAR ( ▲ 1.08% ) for a broader play.

3. Strengthen Your Europe Hedge
Trump wants Europe as the “first line of defense.” That means European countries could increase their own spending, boosting demand for U.S. defense exports.
📌 Action: Look at U.S. contractors with high export exposure like General Dynamics $GD ( ▲ 0.75% ) or defense-heavy funds with NATO exposure like $NATO ( ▼ 0.66% ) .

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