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Yesterday we sent everyone the Premium+ pick. It was $RDDT ( ▲ 9.98% )

Today it's up 11%.

So we're celebrating. 11% up. $1 first month. 24 more hours.

The $1 offer was supposed to close last night. It's staying open until midnight tomorrow.

After that it's back to $19.99/month, and the daily pick goes out to Premium+ only.

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⛽ Trump Has Notes

Trump just told oil companies to cut their prices. In all caps.

He posted on Truth Social Monday demanding retail fuel prices come down, and then singled out Chevron $CVX ( ▼ 1.85% ) CEO Mike Wirth for insufficient gratitude.

Wirth's crime? Going on Fox News over the weekend and discussing oil markets without thanking the administration first.

⛽ The Scolding

Trump's line was that without his administration, the oil industry and the country itself would be dead. His words, his capitalisation.

Exhibit A was Venezuela. Chevron got thrown out. Now they're back and, per Trump, bigger, stronger, and expecting to make a fortune.

Then came the actual ask, pointed at every oil major and not just Chevron: get consumer prices down, now.

Worth a quick reality check. Nobody at Chevron HQ has a lever marked "gas prices."

Refiners sell into a global market priced off crude, and crude gets priced by roughly the entire planet. Presidents included, but only in a supporting role.

🚢 What Wirth Was Actually Saying

Here's what matters more than the telling-off.

Wirth told Fox that the Iran conflict has created a very real threat to global oil supplies, with pump prices already climbing.

Which is why Chevron is in talks with Iraq about a pipeline running north to the Mediterranean, dodging the Strait of Hormuz completely.

The goal, in Wirth's framing, is a pathway to get that production to market.

Because Hormuz is the most expensive bottleneck on earth, and at the moment everybody's barrels are queuing behind the same one.

🧠 So Who's Right?

Both, sort of.

Trump wants cheaper petrol before anyone notices it got expensive. Chevron wants oil that can physically reach a buyer without sailing past a warzone.

Those two things are pulling in opposite directions right now. Supply risk pushes prices up. Political pressure asks them to go down anyway.

A pipeline through Iraq would genuinely help, eventually. Pipelines take years. Angry posts take seconds.

💸 What This Means For Your Money

Watch the geopolitics, not the rhetoric. Hormuz risk is the thing setting the price, and a headline demanding lower prices doesn't remove a single tanker from the danger zone.

If pipeline talk turns into signed agreements, that's a genuine long-term easing of the chokepoint premium.

And for Chevron specifically, being publicly praised and publicly instructed by the same person in the same post is a fairly novel risk factor.

Will petrol be cheaper in 3 months? ⛽

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In a gold rush, sell shovels. Every SpaceX launch runs on parts from public companies trading far below the IPO hype. See the 3 picks our analyst named. Get the Free Report.

Everyone is reading the cash flow statement this week. The backlog is where the answer is.

Free cash flow: negative $7.6B trailing twelve months. Debt nearly doubled. Capex raised to $220B.

Then the stock popped 9% on earnings.

The mechanism is simple once you see it. Free cash flow subtracts capex, so a company spending $220B on servers and robots looks like it's bleeding by construction.

Meanwhile the cloud arm grew 36.7% with a 37.9% adjusted margin, and the backlog jumped 36% sequentially to $496B of already-signed work.

That same division throws off 61% of operating income on 21% of revenue, with over one million robots across 300+ facilities sitting behind it.

The stock went into earnings down 12% over three months. That gap is closing while the argument is still unsettled.

Inside today's Premium+ issue:

  • The metric we're valuing this on instead of free cash flow

  • What would have to break for us to call this overcapacity, and the level we're watching

  • The piece of the autonomy build that public guidance doesn't price at all

  • Why we're adding in stages rather than all at once

🧬 Cathie Sold The Genomes

Cathie Wood just dropped ~$26 million on SpaceX in a single week.

ARK hoovered up more than 358,000 shares across four different funds (ARKK, ARKX, ARKQ and ARKW), landing right before SpaceX's first earnings report since its historic listing.

Which raises a fair question: what happened to the ARK that used to buy genome sequencers?

🚀 The Rest Of The Shopping List

It gets more military-industrial from there.

$15.5M went into CoreWeave $CRWV ( ▲ 19.49% ) after the GPU cloud provider slipped about 15% last week and then bounced back. Buying the picks and shovels of generative AI at a discount.

$14.3M went into Tesla $TSLA ( ▲ 3.49% ) as the stock printed a fresh 52-week low. Vintage Cathie.

Then the defence tray: $5.9M into Kratos Defense and $5.7M into BWX Technologies, with smaller top-ups in Rocket Lab, Intuitive Machines and L3Harris.

The chip side ate well too. TSMC and Nvidia took ~$8.2M each. Meta got $8.6M after its Q2 profit miss dented the stock, and Bitmine Immersion picked up a smaller slice.

Then the odds and ends: X-Energy, Circle Internet Group, Kodiak AI, Pony AI, and a Solana staking ETF. Nuclear reactors, stablecoins, robotaxis and crypto yield. Four different sci-fi films, one shopping basket.

🧬 What Got Sold To Pay For It

Basically everything that used to be the entire thesis.

E-commerce and software took the heaviest hit. Shopify down $12.7M, Snowflake $5.6M, Robinhood $5.1M, plus smaller trims across Alphabet, Amazon, Roblox, Block, Bullish and Figma.

Biotech got the same treatment, which stings if you've been white-knuckling genomics since 2021:

  • $9.3M out of 10x Genomics

  • $6.8M out of CRISPR Therapeutics

  • $4.6M out of Twist Bioscience

  • Smaller cuts to Natera, Illumina and Veracyte

Industrials followed. $6M off Deere, then Caterpillar, Komatsu, Iridium, Honeywell, Garmin, Elbit, Teradyne and Trimble.

🧠 So What's The Actual Bet?

Put the two lists side by side and the trade tells on itself.

She's selling companies that sell software to consumers. She's buying companies that build hardware for governments.

That's a wager that the next leg of AI is physical. Chips, power, satellites, launch capacity, defence contracts. Steel and silicon rather than subscriptions.

For your money, the useful bit is the direction, not the tickers. $ARK ( 0.0% ) is public about its trades daily, which makes it one of the few real-time sentiment reads you can get on where growth capital thinks the future is being built.

The catch: ARK's conviction and ARK's accuracy have historically been two different metrics. Genomics was also a high-conviction theme once.

What would puncture this one? SpaceX's first earnings landing badly, or defence and AI-infrastructure spending showing any sign of slowing. Both are checkable in the next few weeks.

👀 The Never-Sellers Just Sold… Again

Strategy $MSTR ( ▲ 1.69% ) just sold bitcoin for about $11,000 a coin less than it paid.

1,638 tokens went out the door last week for $104.73M, at an average sale price of $63,957. The average price across its whole stack is $75,419.

This is the company whose entire personality is never selling.

Shares took it about as well as you'd expect, down 1.15% to $92.21 in pre-market trading Monday. Bitcoin was at $62,550.81 before the US open, so those coins left near the lows.

So why sell into that?

💸 Where The $104.73M Actually Went

It lasted about five minutes on the balance sheet, and it split almost perfectly in half.

$52.4M funded preferred stock dividends. $52.3M funded buybacks of STRC, the 9.0% Series A Perpetual Stretch preferred, under the Digital Credit Securities Repurchase Program.

Strategy hoovered up 912,143 STRC shares for $81.2M in the prior week.

That tells you what's running the company now.

On last week's Q2 call, CEO Phong Le said the primary corporate objective is for $STRC ( ▲ 3.2% ) to trade consistently around $99-$100 over time.

The number one goal at a bitcoin treasury company is a preferred stock sitting near par.

To get there, Strategy says it will manage capital through bitcoin sales when needed, security buybacks, dividend adjustments, and disciplined share issuance. Selling coins made the official list. In writing.

And the dividend bill is fixed. On July 31 the board declared a semi-monthly $0.50 per share cash dividend on STRC, payable August 31 and September 15, to holders of record August 15 and August 31.

Twice a month, whether bitcoin cooperates or not.

🔁 The Treadmill

Here's the loop: sell equity, buy bitcoin, issue preferred to buy more bitcoin, then sell bitcoin to pay the preferred and support its price.

The stack is now 842,138 bitcoin, bought for $63.51B at an average $75,419. A week ago it was 843,775 coins bought for $63.69B at $75,476. The first dent in the mountain.

The fundraising machine is still humming, though. Strategy sold 3,011,361 class A shares for net proceeds of $290.6M the previous week, and its USD reserve rose to $4.0B as of August 2, up from $3.75B.

They raised $290.6M and still sold coins? Yes. The reserve is for the future. The coins paid this month's bill.

🧠 What It Means For You

Anyone holding MSTR as a clean bitcoin proxy now owns something with a second job. Coins can leave the balance sheet when a $0.50 dividend comes due, and the $4.0B reserve buys time rather than removing the obligation.

The tell worth watching is whether STRC gets near $99 on its own, or only when more bitcoin gets sold to push it there.

Strategy sold bitcoin at a $11k-per-coin loss to pay a dividend.

Smart move or the first crack?

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