Trump Just Shocked China 😲

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TRUMP JUST SHOCKED CHINA 😲 

Wall Street played ping-pong again on Tuesday. The day started chill, ended chaotic, and somewhere in between, Trump decided to threaten China on Truth Social.

Here’s the quick version:

• Trump posted that he’s “considering ending business with China” over soybeans and cooking oil.

• Traders immediately said, “What?” and the S&P 500 dipped.

• Powell tried to calm things down by saying the Fed’s balance sheet runoff will stop soon.

By the close:

• S&P 500: -0.2%

• Nasdaq: -0.8%

• Dow: +0.4% (the only one wearing green today)

The U.S. and China Are at It Again

China slapped sanctions on five U.S. subsidiaries. Meanwhile, the U.S. accused China of restricting exports of rare earth materials. Oh, and both sides just introduced new port fees on each other’s ships.

It’s like watching two neighbors keep building taller fences — and then charging each other rent for the shade.

Analyst Andrew Hecht summed it up: markets are strapped into a roller coaster of “posturing with a capital P.” He thinks both Trump and Xi want to look tough before inevitably cutting a deal.

Expect turbulence before the handshake.

Fed Talk and Economic Data

Jerome Powell told the National Association for Business Economics that the Fed’s quantitative tightening may end soon. Investors heard that as “the money hose might turn back on,” which usually helps stocks — except trade drama stole the spotlight.

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index dropped to 98.8 (vs. 100.6 expected). Small business owners aren’t feeling great about what’s ahead, with only 23% expecting better conditions.

Bank Earnings: The Boring Kind of Bad

• JPMorgan Chase $JPM ( ▼ 1.91% ): down 1.9% despite raising full-year guidance.

• Goldman Sachs $GS ( ▼ 2.04% ): also down 1.9%. The bank told employees to brace for job cuts and slower hiring while blaming AI for “productivity enhancements.”

Crypto Corner

The U.S. Department of Justice seized $15 billion in Bitcoin tied to a cybercrime ring. That’s one way to make the Treasury look good on a Tuesday.

Bonds & Odds

• 10-year yield: 4.03% (down 2bps)

• 2-year yield: 3.49% (also down 2bps)

Prediction market Kalshi says the government shutdown could drag on for 34.4 days — potentially a new record.

TL;DR

• Trump threatened to “end business” with China → markets freaked.

• Fed may pause its balance-sheet runoff soon.

• China hit back with sanctions and fees.

• Bank earnings were meh, small business confidence dipped.

• DOJ grabbed $15B in Bitcoin.

• Expect more volatility until Trump and Xi decide to play nice again.

1. Ride the China Trade Ripple
Trump’s threat to “end business with China” and new port fees signal supply chain disruption across U.S.–China-linked sectors. Expect movement in agriculture, shipping, and manufacturing.
📌 Action: Accumulate shares of U.S. agriculture exporters like $ADM ( ▲ 0.34% ) or $BG ( ▲ 1.77% ) , which could benefit if domestic demand replaces Chinese imports. Take profits on strong rebounds.

2. Bank on Fed Easing Signals
Powell hinted the Fed might stop shrinking its balance sheet — a bullish setup for rate-sensitive assets like real estate and bonds.
📌 Action: Add exposure to bond ETFs like $TLT or $IEF ahead of potential rate stabilization. Consider REITs such as $VNQ ( ▲ 1.03% ) for yield upside if borrowing costs cool.

3. Play the Confidence Comeback
Small business optimism just fell, but historically, dips like this precede rebounds as credit and consumer confidence recover.
📌 Action: Start building positions in small-cap ETFs like $IWM ( ▲ 1.43% ) while sentiment is weak. Scale in over the next few weeks to capture the turnaround when conditions improve.

S&P500 RUNNING ON FUMES?! 💨

The stock market’s been grinding higher for months, but a few cracks are starting to show. Paul Ciana, a technical strategist at Bank of America, thinks the S&P 500 could be heading for a near-term correction.

In his latest report, he says the index’s uptrend is “at risk” as weak market breadth and renewed U.S.-China trade tension creep back into the picture. You know, the kind of tariff talk that triggered the 2018 selloff and made everyone swear they’d never check their portfolios again.

Ciana doesn’t think we’re in the same situation this time. The “A.I. bull” is still kicking. But the setup feels uncomfortably familiar.

Rally’s Running Thin

The S&P 500 recently blew past Bank of America’s summer target of 6,625, but not everyone came along for the ride. Market breadth is still weak.

What does that actually mean?

Only a small group of stocks are doing the heavy lifting while everyone else just sits on the bench.

Ciana warns that until more stocks start participating, the risk of a correction stays high.

• First level of support: 6,625

• Next: 6,550, then 6,360

• The big safety net: the 200-day moving average near 6,100

If the rally does find its legs again, he’s eyeing 6,845 and 7,000 as potential upside targets — about 6% above where we sit now.

History Might Be About To Rhyme

Ciana sees some déjà vu between 2022–2025 and the 2015–2018 market cycle. Both had long bases, strong rallies, and mid-cycle pullbacks. If the pattern holds, a 10% drop in Q4 would make sense. But if tariff fears calm down, 7,000 is still on the table.

Bond Yields Are Hinting Lower

Ciana also spotted a bearish setup in the bond market. The 30-year Treasury yield’s 50-day average just slipped below the 200-day — a signal that’s led to lower yields about two-thirds of the time within 45 trading days.

The five-year yield is still in a downtrend too, and if it breaks below 3.66%, he’s targeting a slide toward 3.52% or even 3.16%.

Dollar Flexes, Pound Slumps

Over in currency land, the U.S. dollar is staging a technical breakout.

The $DXY ( 0.0% ) index has punched through resistance and formed a head-and-shoulders bottom. Chart nerds call that bullish. Ciana thinks it could climb toward 101 as long as it stays above 97.46. He’s still not a fan of the British pound.

Silver’s Gone Parabolic

Silver just smashed through its 2011 peak at $49.80 and hit every bullish target Ciana had.

The long-term setup still looks good thanks to a massive cup-and-handle pattern, but he says the metal might need to cool off.

A dip to the low $40s wouldn’t be shocking, and it could line up with a short-term top in gold around $4,000.

Bottom Line

Ciana’s not calling for a crash, but he’s definitely hinting that the market could use a breather.

Q4 usually treats investors well, yet with narrow leadership, renewed tariff noise, and stretched optimism, it might be a smart time to hedge your bets.

TL;DR:

• The S&P 500’s rally looks shaky with weak breadth and trade fears.

• A 10% correction in Q4 wouldn’t be out of character.

• Bonds point to lower yields ahead.

• Dollar looks strong, pound looks weak.

• Silver might be due for a cooldown.

• Still bullish long-term, but time to play some defense.

1. Play the Breadth Rebound
Weak market breadth means only a few mega-caps are carrying the rally. When participation improves, mid- and small-caps usually pop hardest.
📌 Action: Accumulate quality mid-cap ETFs like $MDY ( ▲ 0.93% ) or small-cap ETFs like $IWM ( ▲ 1.43% ) while breadth is weak. Take profits when the advance broadens.

2. Ride the Bond Yield Slide
Bank of America’s data shows falling long-term yields are likely. That’s bullish for rate-sensitive sectors like real estate and utilities.
📌 Action: Add exposure through $XLRE ( ▲ 0.95% ) or $XLU ( ▲ 0.89% ) . These tend to outperform when yields cool off.

3. Follow the Dollar Breakout
The dollar’s technical breakout favors U.S.-focused companies over exporters and emerging markets.
📌 Action: Shift portfolio weight toward domestic-heavy ETFs like $RSP ( ▲ 0.83% ) and reduce EM exposure $EEM ( ▼ 0.9% )

THE NVIDIA KILLER IS HERE 🗡️ 

Oracle just dropped some big news from its AI World event in Vegas. The company plans to roll out 50,000 AMD Instinct MI450 GPUs starting in the second half of 2026.

Starting in Q3 2026, Oracle will become the first hyperscaler to offer a public AI supercluster powered by AMD’s shiny new Instinct MI450 chips.

These GPUs aren’t your average silicon. The MI450s are AMD’s first AI accelerators built to scale into rack-sized systems, letting up to 72 chips act as one mega-brain. That kind of setup is what you need when you’re trying to train and deploy the next wave of advanced AI models.

The chips were first unveiled in June during an event where OpenAI’s Sam Altman and AMD CEO Lisa Su shared the stage. Yeah, that one made some noise.

Why This Matters

Oracle’s move isn’t just about flexing its tech muscles. It’s part of a bigger shift across the cloud industry.

Everyone’s been on the Nvidia GPU train, but now AMD’s becoming a real contender. As Oracle Cloud Infrastructure SVP Karan Batta told CNBC, “Customers are going to take up AMD very, very well — especially in the inferencing space.”

Oracle thinks AMD’s chips can handle the heavy lifting that comes after AI models are trained — when they’re actually put to work answering questions, generating images, or writing code.

This new partnership builds on Oracle and AMD’s earlier collaborations, which kicked off with the MI300X-powered cloud offerings in 2024 and will expand to the MI355X GPUs later on.

So yeah, Oracle’s clearly going all-in on giving customers alternatives to Nvidia’s hardware, and the timing couldn’t be better. Demand for AI chips is insane, and anyone who can help ease the supply crunch wins points with developers.

TL;DR

• Oracle’s rolling out 50,000 AMD Instinct MI450 GPUs in 2026 to power a new public AI supercluster.

• It’s the first big hyperscaler to do so, signaling a serious challenge to Nvidia’s GPU dominance.

• AMD’s becoming the new favorite kid in the AI playground.

1. Ride AMD’s Growing Data Center Demand
Oracle’s 50,000-chip deal signals rising demand for AMD’s AI accelerators — especially as cloud giants diversify away from Nvidia. Expect continued growth in AMD’s data center segment.
📌 Action: Accumulate $AMD ( ▲ 0.77% ) shares on dips ahead of 2026 rollout. Focus on long-term growth from hyperscaler partnerships and AI infrastructure buildouts.

2. Bet on Cloud Expansion via Oracle
Oracle’s deepening AI play puts it in the same league as AWS and Azure for enterprise AI workloads. Their early public AI supercluster could drive new customer growth and higher cloud margins.
📌 Action: Add Oracle to your watchlist or portfolio as a late bloomer in the AI infrastructure race. Look for entry points before major earnings tied to cloud growth.

3. Invest in AI Infrastructure Ecosystem
The Oracle–AMD collaboration highlights growing demand for AI server capacity, networking, and data center power solutions. Companies that make the “AI plumbing” benefit no matter who wins the GPU war.
📌 Action: Research and build positions in firms like Broadcom $AVGO ( ▼ 3.52% ) , Super Micro Computer $SMCI ( ▼ 3.0% ) , and Arista Networks $ANET ( ▼ 5.87% ) that supply the backbone for AI data centers.

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