💸 Trump's $5k For Every Adult

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Trump just promised every American adult $5,000.

The catch? Republicans have to keep both the House and the Senate in November.

He made the pitch Wednesday at the GOP's first midterm convention in Dallas. His reasoning: the country is "making so much money."

Here's the bill 👇

It depends who counts as "every adult":

So one campaign promise equals two-thirds to three-quarters of a full year's deficit. Make it make sense.

VP JD Vance says tariffs would foot the bill. He also hinted wealthy Americans might not get a check. No formal plan exists yet.

The problem: Yale's Budget Lab expects current tariffs to raise about $1.9T over 10 years. That's roughly $190B a year.

So a year of tariff money covers less than a fifth of the payout. Funding the whole thing would swallow six-plus years of tariff revenue.

That's the kind of maths you do on a napkin, then quietly bin the napkin.

The gap gets borrowed. That lands on a national debt already sitting at nearly $40.1T.

Presidents can't just mail cheques. The Constitution gives Congress the power of the purse, so this needs actual legislation.

No details yet on how that bill would get through. Which is sort of the whole pitch: the money only appears if the current majority stays the majority.

There's also a house rule. The cash must be spent in the US.

Trump specifically ruled out Canada, China and Germany. Sorry, Toronto weekend.

Critics have called it an election bribe, arguing it dangles cash in front of voters in exchange for a Republican win.

The legal picture is messier. The payment would go to all eligible adults, not only people who vote Republican. That distinction could matter under election law.

Still, tying it explicitly to the GOP winning both chambers leaves real legal questions about how it could ever be structured.

Déjà vu corner: last year Trump floated $2,000 tariff-funded checks. Details were thin then too.

It's a campaign pledge today. No bill, no funding source that adds up, no program.

If it did happen, most of it would be borrowed money. More federal borrowing tends to push on bond yields, which ripple into mortgage and loan rates.

A "spend it in America" rule would funnel cash toward US retailers and consumer businesses, at least on paper.

The real market variable is November. The pledge lives or dies with the midterm result.

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Nvidia says its revenue could more than double next year.

The only thing stopping it? It can't build the stuff fast enough.

Jensen Huang took the stage at Goldman Sachs' Communacopia + Technology Conference on Thursday and doubled down

Huang says he's "confident" Nvidia grows revenue 70% in 2027.

That's the same guidance that stunned Wall Street last month. Management also said growth would top 100% if demand weren't constrained.

And that demand isn't cooling. Huang says AI compute demand is staying well above supply.

The queue outside Nvidia's door is still going round the block. Twice.

So how do you grow that fast? Easy. Sell every customer a lot more stuff.

Nvidia is moving from selling GPUs to selling full-stack "AI factory" systems. Check the price ladder:

That's more than double the Hopper price in two generations. Your phone upgrades wish they had this kind of pricing power.

Huang expects this shift to win Nvidia a bigger slice of data center spending.

He also said Nvidia is gaining share at Anthropic, the Claude maker it invested in back in November 2025. Shareholder and supplier. Nice seat at the table.

Huang's big pitch: AI compute is becoming an asset-backed class. Think property, but it hums and needs a lot of cooling.

Nvidia has already announced several deals with financial firms to finance AI infrastructure. Execs keep saying their systems hold value for years because they're used so heavily and for so long.

The next growth leg? Cybersecurity. Nvidia has recently partnered with CrowdStrike, Cisco, and Palantir.

After that comes physical AI, meaning robots and self-driving cars. Huang expects "significant progress" in the next two or three years.

Supply is the number to watch. Nvidia says demand would support 100%+ growth, so any easing in supply constraints is where upside could come from.

Pricing is doing heavy lifting. When each system costs more than double what Hopper did, revenue can climb fast even if unit growth slows.

The "asset class" story has a risk baked in. If AI hardware gets financed like property, the whole pitch leans on those systems keeping their value. If they age faster than promised, lenders and buyers feel it first.

And remember: this is a CEO talking up his own company at an investor conference. Confident is his default setting.

Michael Burry just hit the brakes.

The man who called the 2008 housing crash is trimming every single position he holds. Longs, shorts, the lot.

Now he's sitting on cash, waiting to see what this fall brings.

Here's what he's doing 👇

Burry dumped his December 2026 put options on Nvidia and Palantir. Puts are basically bets that a stock will fall.

The spicy part? He didn't roll them over. No new expiry date, no fresh bet. He just picked up his chips and left the table.

On his Substack, he said he "pulled in risk" in September and is "happy to sit on" his cash for now.

His outlook in one line: "This will be an interesting market this fall."

The shorts are smaller, but they're all still there. His biggest short positions, in order:

That's basically the AI boom's greatest hits album. He's still betting against the AI trade, just with less money on the line.

His biggest longs are equally unchanged: Lululemon, Molina Healthcare, and MercadoLibre.

Yoga pants, health insurance, and Latin American online shopping. Not exactly a Silicon Valley fan club.

Everything got trimmed, but the ranking by size didn't budge. Same portfolio, just on a diet.

Burry says the Dollar Spot Index is falling again, and he's promised a post on currency markets soon.

Meanwhile, retail traders are catching the bear vibes. On Stocktwits, Palantir sentiment stayed "bearish" over the past day, while Nvidia slipped from "neutral" to "bearish."

When Burry sneezes, Stocktwits reaches for the tissues apparently.

Burry hasn't called a crash here. He's shrunk his bets while keeping his worldview exactly the same.

That tells you two things. First, one of the market's most famous skeptics still thinks AI stocks are running hot.

Second, even he isn't confident enough to go big on that view right now. Cash is a position too, and he's choosing it.

Worth remembering: Burry has a habit of being early. Being right and being right on schedule are two very different sports.

If your portfolio leans heavily on AI names, his dollar post could be the next thing worth reading.

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