🥊 Trump vs Europe: It's Personal

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Trump landed in Ankara for the NATO summit and immediately hit replay on his favorite track: the US should own Greenland.

And this time there's a threat attached. If Europe keeps saying no, he says America could pull all of its troops out of Europe.

Yes, all of them.

Trump's argument: Greenland matters for US national security, so Denmark should hand it over. He also repeated claims about Chinese and Russian activity around the island. Experts have poked holes in those claims before.

Greenland's response has been the same for months: not for sale. You'd think the "For Sale" sign would've come down by now.

US-NATO relations are at an all-time low. The flashpoints:

That last one is not a joke. It happened on social media.

This isn't just talk. Since Trump's "NATO IS A PAPER TIGER" post in March, the US has:

Europe says it can adapt. Capability gaps say otherwise.

Europe and Canada sign a joint declaration promising bigger defense budgets and more responsibility for their own security. NATO chief Mark Rutte wants an alliance where the US "knows it is a fair deal."

In a nutshell? Everyone pays up, Trump calms down, defense stocks pop.

Billions in arms deals are expected to be announced. Defense investors are already circling like seagulls at a beach picnic.

Governor races. Senate runoffs. Billboard charts. Celebrity news. Real money on all of it. Kalshi is the federally regulated prediction market where your opinions pay off. Trade what you know.

The U.S. Treasury just yanked its permission slip for Iranian oil sales. Effective immediately.

Why? Because Iran spent the week attacking tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. The same strait it promised to keep safe under an interim deal.

That's like signing a lease and then setting fire to the lobby.

Here's the quick backstory.

The Trump administration had waived sanctions on Iranian oil as part of a deal to reopen Hormuz. Iran got to sell oil. Ships got safe passage. Everyone wins.

Then Iran started shooting at the ships.

So Treasury pulled the plug.

The Office of Foreign Assets Control killed the license covering production, delivery and sale of Iranian oil. It was supposed to run until August 21.

Now? No new transactions from July 7 onwards. Done. Finished. Licence shredded.

And the market's reaction?

Oil prices surged the moment the announcement dropped. Because nothing says "supply risk" quite like sanctions snapping back on a major producer while its navy plays bumper cars with tankers.

Roughly a fifth of the world's oil moves through Hormuz. When that chokepoint gets twitchy, crude gets expensive. Fast.

What to watch: energy stocks, airline stocks (jet fuel isn't getting cheaper), and whether Iran escalates or blinks.

The IPO quiet period lifted this week, meaning the banks that underwrote the $86B listing can finally publish research.

Spoiler: they like it. A lot.

Morgan Stanley kicked things off with an Overweight rating and a $300 price target. That's roughly 90% upside from Monday's close.

Their pitch? SpaceX can "convert energy into intelligence at scale" for the AI era. Which sounds like something a fortune cookie would say after three espressos, but the numbers behind it are wild.

They see revenues topping $3.3 trillion by 2040. Trillion. With a T.

Goldman Sachs came in with a Buy and a $205 target, calling SpaceX a unique company with three shots at trillion-dollar markets: space, connectivity, and AI.

Then Raymond James looked at everyone else's homework and said "amateurs."

Strong Buy. $800 price target. That's nearly 500% above the IPO price.

Their analyst compared SpaceX to railroads, electric grids, and the internet. The foundational platform for the next industrial era, apparently. No pressure, Elon.

So why is the stock down?

Shares fell 6.83% Tuesday, drifting back toward the $150 IPO price after briefly touching $225 post-listing.

Classic sell-the-news. Early buyers took profits, tech stocks are wobbly, and everyone who wanted in at the open already got in.

But here's the twist. SpaceX joins the Nasdaq 100 on Tuesday. That means every index fund tracking it is now forced to buy and hold the stock, whether they like it or not.

Forced buyers are the best kind of buyers.

The risks? The banks flagged a few: