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In today’s post:
😡 Trump Won't Like This
😬 Jensen Huang's Brutal Warning
🚀 Why Burry won't touch SpaceX
How 2M+ Professionals Stay Ahead on AI
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😡 Trump Won't Like This
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates exactly where they were: 3.50%-3.75%.
That's four meetings in a row with no change. But the rate wasn't the story today.
The new guy in charge was.
Meet Kevin Warsh
This was Warsh's first meeting as Fed Chair. And he wasted no time setting a different tone.
The vote was unanimous. No dissents, no drama.
The Fed also dropped its "easing bias." What’s that mean? The next move could be a cut or a hike. Nobody's promising anything anymore.
Powell's Fed liked to reassure everyone it was "committed" to hitting 2% inflation.
Warsh's Fed said something blunter: it "will deliver price stability."
Less therapy session, more ultimatum.
The Fed says the economy is growing at a "solid pace," but inflation is still too hot. Energy prices, partly thanks to the Iran war, aren't helping.
The Dot Plot Got Spicy
Remember when everyone expected rate cuts this year?
Yeah, about that.
The median projection now sees rates at 3.8% by year-end, up from 3.4% in March.
That means zero cuts for the rest of 2026.
Funny detail: one dot was missing from the chart. Warsh apparently refused to submit his guess. He's not a fan of forward guidance, and he's making that clear.
But Wall Street didn’t love it. Stocks dropped. Markets read Warsh as more hawkish than expected.
The mood flipped fast.
Odds of a rate hike in July jumped to 37.1%, up from just 8.5% a day earlier.
Going from "no chance" to "wait, seriously?" in 24 hours.
By December, traders now see real odds rates finish the year higher than today:
37.7% chance of a quarter-point hike
32.7% chance of a half-point hike
12.2% chance of a three-quarter-point hike
1.7% chance of a full point (hello, 4.50%-4.75%)
The Trump Factor
Trump wants cuts. Warsh just signaled no cuts.
See the problem?
Prediction market Kalshi gives Trump just an 11% chance of publicly bashing Warsh this month. A honeymoon, basically.
But before year-end? Those odds jump to 56%.
Oh, and Jerome Powell didn't disappear. He's now a Fed governor and voted in today's decision. No betting markets on whether Trump roasts him again.
What Do You Think The Feds Next Move Is?
TL;DR
The Fed held rates at 3.50%-3.75% for the fourth straight meeting.
It was Kevin Warsh's debut as Chair, and he came in noticeably more hawkish than Powell.
The Fed dropped its "easing bias," so the next move could be a cut or a hike.
The dot plot now signals no rate cuts in 2026, with year-end rates seen at 3.8%.
Markets flipped fast: July hike odds jumped to 37.1% and stocks slid.
Trump wants cuts, Warsh isn't offering them, and the odds of a public clash hit 52% by year-end.
1. Position for "Higher for Longer" Rates
Warsh just killed the rate-cut dream for 2026. The dot plot says no cuts, and hikes are back on the table. That environment tends to favor cash-like yield and sectors that don't choke on higher rates.
📌 Action: Park idle cash in short-term Treasury or money-market ETFs like $SGOV ( ▲ 0.01% ) or $BIL ( ▲ 0.01% ) to lock in yield while rates stay elevated. You get paid to wait instead of guessing direction.
2. Lean Into Energy While Inflation Runs Hot
The Fed flat-out blamed energy supply shocks for sticky inflation. The Iran war is the wildcard keeping prices bid. If inflation stays hot because of oil, energy producers ride that wave.
📌 Action: Build exposure to broad energy via $XLE ( ▼ 1.25% ) or oil-and-gas producers that benefit from elevated crude. Treat it as an inflation hedge, not a quick flip.
3. Reduce Rate-Sensitive Dead Weight
Long-duration and rate-sensitive names (think speculative growth, long bonds, rate-fragile real estate) just lost their best catalyst: cuts. If the next move could be a hike, those are the first to feel it.
📌 Action: Review your portfolio for long-duration bond funds like $TLT ( ▲ 0.16% ) or unprofitable high-multiple growth. Trim concentration and rotate proceeds into the yield or energy plays above.
Everyone's chasing the obvious defense names. There's a $1.8 billion drone company quietly building a factory ten times bigger than its order book.
On its latest earnings call, the CEO put a number on the table: $1+ billion in manufacturing capacity. Wall Street analysts are modeling just $221 million for 2027.
Sit with that gap. Management is building for a billion. The street is pricing in a fifth of it.
This isn't a story stock with a slick deck and no customers. The U.S. government just turned the funding tap on hard. We're talking a $54 billion drone budget that the Defense Secretary said is really closer to $74 billion for 2027. Plus a $156 billion defense bill they now plan to spend in months, not years.
The money is flowing. The only question is who catches it.
Here's the part that separates the pros from the hopefuls: this company just raised $259 million at a price 50% below its highs. That looks like a blunder. Or it's the loudest tell on the board that a massive contract is about to land.
We think we know which one it is. And we'll show you exactly why.
In today's Premium+ deep dive, we break down:
The real reason behind that "terrible" capital raise (and what it signals is coming)
Our valuation framework at ~10x revenue, and the exact price that would flip us bearish
The single risk that could sink the entire thesis
The contract triggers to watch before the next print
This is the asymmetric setup Premium+ was built for.
Get positioned before the announcement. Unlock the full breakdown.
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😬 Jensen Huang's Brutal Warning
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang just stood in a Texas factory and basically said: AI is amazing, but America forgot to plug it in.
His message? AI could kick off a whole new industrial boom. But only if the US sorts out its energy problem fast.
Huang was in Sherman, Texas, celebrating a $2 billion Nvidia-Coherent partnership.
The plant makes indium phosphide. Sounds like a Scrabble word, but it's actually used in lasers that shuttle data between chips.
The cool part? It lets tons of chips run like one giant brain while cutting power use by up to 50%.
The expansion is expected to:
Create around 1,000 jobs
Add roughly 550 technical and engineering roles
Double the floor space
Quadruple output
Not bad for a material you've never heard of.
"Woefully behind in energy"
Here's the punchline nobody wanted.
AI data centers are power-hungry monsters. Think of them as the kid who eats everything in the fridge, then asks what's for dinner.
Huang didn't sugarcoat it.
"The United States is woefully behind in energy production," he said. "We just suffocated energy production for too long."
His point is simple. You can have the best chips, the best software, the best AI in the world.
But if you can't power it? You're stuck.
He floated the idea that some future data centers might generate their own electricity. He also gave a nod to Trump's push for more domestic energy.
Huang also wants regular people to stop being scared of AI.
His advice was refreshingly blunt: "I would advocate that everybody use AI. Just go engage it."
His pitch? AI can help you design a website, analyze documents, plan a home renovation, even do science. No coding degree required.
Worried about jobs? Huang compared AI to the arrival of cars. Society didn't ban them. We built traffic lights, licenses, and rules instead.
On regulation and Uncle Sam buying in
Huang thinks government oversight matters, especially for national security.
But he wants specifics, not vibes. Set rules around real risks, he argued, not vague fears.
He was also skeptical about the idea of the government owning stakes in big AI companies.
His take? These are American firms already. They create jobs, pay taxes, and pump up stock prices that millions of Americans hold anyway.
So his thought’s he’s not actually saying out loud? What exactly are we fixing here?
Nvidia is now worth around $5 trillion. And Huang argues the AI wave lifts more than just tech.
Construction, energy, manufacturing. They're all part of building the machine that runs modern AI.
The catch? That machine needs a lot of electricity. And right now, the grid is sweating.
TL;DR
Jensen Huang says AI could spark a new US industrial boom, but energy is the bottleneck.
Nvidia and Coherent are expanding a $2B Texas plant making laser tech that cuts chip power use by up to 50%.
The project should create ~1,000 jobs, double floor space, and quadruple output.
Huang warned the US is "woefully behind" on energy and needs way more power for AI.
He urged everyone to just start using AI, comparing fears to early worries about cars.
He's skeptical of government owning AI stakes, saying these firms already create jobs, taxes, and shareholder value.
🚀 Why Burry Won't Touch SpaceX
Remember the guy who called the 2008 housing crash? He's back, and he's staring at SpaceX like it owes him money.
But here's the twist: he's not betting against it.
Burry holds zero SpaceX shares. No long. No short. Nothing.
"I am not involved with SpaceX now. Neither short nor, ahem, long," he wrote on Substack Tuesday.
So why the cold shoulder?
He looked at the bearish bets. He did the math. He passed.
The problem? Shorting SpaceX is wildly expensive.
With the stock around $212, here's what the put options were costing:
December 2028 put (strike $100): ~$25 per contract
June 2027 put: ~$13
December 2026 put: ~$6.75
That last one tempted him. Then he tapped out.
"Tempted by that one. But no thank you," Burry said. He's hoping the stock settles in the mid-$200s and the option froth drains away.
He thinks it's overpriced, but paying up to short it is like buying a $25 umbrella to dodge a maybe-drizzle.
It goes without saying, Burry doesn't think much of the $3T valuation.
He called SpaceX "fundamentally a small space company, a niche telecom, a bedeviled social media company, and a Coreweave-light" pulling in under $20B a year.
Ouch.
Meanwhile, the market disagrees loudly.
SpaceX rocketed past Amazon on Tuesday in global market cap. It now sits behind only Nvidia, Alphabet, Apple, and Microsoft.
A $3 trillion company on less than $20B in revenue. That's a lot of faith priced in.
This isn't a one-off for Burry either.
Last month he told investors to "reject greed" and trim their tech exposure as AI mania keeps inflating valuations.
His longer warning? The market's AI obsession is starting to rhyme with the late stages of the dot-com bubble.
SpaceX just blew past Amazon at a $3T valuation. Burry won't short it. What's your call?
TL;DR
Burry holds no SpaceX position, long or short.
He thinks the $3T valuation is bonkers for a company making under $20B a year.
He passed on shorting it because put options are too pricey to justify the bet.
A December 2026 put around $6.75 tempted him, but he still walked.
SpaceX leapfrogged Amazon Tuesday, now trailing only Nvidia, Alphabet, Apple, and Microsoft.
Burry keeps warning the AI trade looks like dot-com, round two.