Trump, Xi, and a Market Twist 🌪️

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The market ended Thursday with a little victory dance. All three major indexes finished higher — because apparently, nothing says “we’re chill” like trade war drama and government chaos.

Seven of the eleven S&P sectors went green. Energy led the charge thanks to oil jumping 3.8%, while Consumer Staples… well, they got stapled.

Yields ticked up — the 10-year rose to 4.00%, and the 2-year hit 3.49%. The “safe money” folks just got a tiny pay raise.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed that President Trump and President Xi Jinping will meet next Thursday. Markets perked up like, “Oh boy, here we go again.”

But here’s the plot twist. The Trump administration’s also weighing new export restrictions on China for tech made with U.S. software. It’s like inviting someone to dinner and then banning them from the restaurant.

But analysts are saying as long as AI is in the driving seat of the rally, there’s nothing to worry about.

So, yeah — markets basically said, “Trade war? Government shutdown? Doesn’t matter, we’ve got ChatGPT.”

The U.S. government shutdown just became the second-longest in history, with lawmakers locked in an “I’m not talking first” standoff.

According to Polymarket, there’s a 75% chance this becomes the longest ever. Congrats, Congress, you’re about to set a record no one wanted.

Tesla $TSLA ( ▲ 0.1% ) popped +2.2% after dropping its Q3 report. Intel $INTC ( ▲ 2.25% ) and Ford $F ( ▼ 0.84% ) also stepped up to the mic after the bell.

This marks the start of Magnificent 7 earnings season — aka when the market collectively decides if we’re in “to the moon” mode or “oh no” territory.

Emily Bowersock Hill summed it up best:

Translation: It’s fine. Everything’s fine. Keep buying the dip.

Tomorrow brings the September CPI report, even though the government’s technically closed. Because inflation doesn’t care if you’re on vacation.

The market’s basically saying: “Trade war? Shutdown? Meh. AI’s still printing tendies.”

1. Ride the Energy Wave
Oil’s up 3.8%, and Energy was the top-performing sector — momentum’s clearly back. With markets betting on continued demand and trade tensions brewing, this trend could have legs.
📌 Action: Add exposure to Energy ETFs like $XLE ( ▼ 0.41% ) or $VDE ( ▼ 0.48% ), or pick strong oil producers like ExxonMobil $XOM ( ▼ 0.51% ) and Chevron $CVX ( ▼ 1.48% ). Scale out if oil cools off or the next CPI report hints at demand slowdown.

2. Lean Into the AI Hype Train
Analysts are saying it loud: “As long as AI’s in the driver’s seat, this rally’s fine.” With Tesla, Intel, and other Magnificent 7 giants reporting, AI-linked momentum could fuel tech further.
📌 Action: Accumulate shares in AI-heavy ETFs like $SMH ( ▲ 0.78% ) (semiconductors) or $QQQ ( ▲ 0.41% ), and keep dry powder for pullbacks during earnings volatility.

3. Play the “Shutdown Stall” Safety Shift
The ongoing U.S. government shutdown could become the longest ever — uncertainty like that often sends cautious money into bonds or defensive sectors.
📌 Action: Consider a small rotation into utilities $XLU ( ▼ 0.94% ) or healthcare $XLV ( ▼ 0.42% ) for downside protection, and watch Treasury ETFs $IEF ( ▼ 0.21% ), $TLT ( ▼ 0.46% ) for potential yield dips once the market starts pricing in policy gridlock.

Ford $F ( ▼ 0.84% ) just pulled off the corporate version of “I meant to do that.”

After-hours, the stock rebounded hard — investors shrugged off a scary profit warning and a literal fire at one of its key aluminum suppliers. Why? Because Ford quietly dropped one of its best quarters ever.

Ford’s supplier, Novelis, had a plant fire that disrupted aluminum production — not great when your business literally runs on metal.

CEO Jim Farley basically said, “Don’t worry, we’ve got backup plans and duct tape.”

Translation: “We’ll fix it, but don’t expect miracles till 2026.”

To make up for the shortfall, Ford’s cranking up F-150 Super Duty production by 50,000 units. Because when in doubt, build more trucks.

Ford posted $0.45 per share in profit — a slight dip from last year, but 9 cents above expectations.

Revenue? A record-smashing $50.5 billion, up 9% year-over-year and way above Wall Street’s $43.8B guess.

Adjusted EBIT held steady at $2.6 billion, with margins creeping up to 5.1%.

Ford’s money printer was running hot too:

Basically, Ford’s bank account looks like it’s prepping for a shopping spree.

Ford’s guidance took a hit:

The Novelis mess will cost them $1.5B–$2B in EBIT and $2B–$3B in free cash flow through 2026.
Oh, and there’s a $1B tariff headwind too — because apparently everything costs more in 2025.

Ford’s message to investors:
“Yeah, the garage caught fire… but hey, look how shiny the truck is.”

1. Buy the Truck Boom
Ford’s boosting F-150 Super Duty production by 50,000 units to offset aluminum shortages. That’s their most profitable line — and it signals sustained truck demand despite supply hiccups.
📌 Action: Take a position in Ford $F ( ▼ 0.84% ) on weakness while monitoring Q4 delivery data. Focus on the Ford Pro segment (commercial + fleet demand) — if that momentum holds, margin recovery could surprise to the upside in 2025.

2. Play the Aluminum Fallout
The Novelis fire disrupted aluminum supply — a $1.5B–$2B EBIT headwind for Ford through 2026. That ripple hits both auto producers and metal suppliers.
📌 Action: Consider exposure to alternative aluminum suppliers like Alcoa $AA ( ▼ 0.55% ) or Century Aluminum $CENX ( ▲ 0.71% ) as they pick up business. Short-term demand spikes could lift their margins before Ford’s supply chain stabilizes.

3. Lean Into GM’s Edge
Analysts say GM > Ford heading into 2026 — stronger EV progress, steadier margins, and fewer one-off crises.
📌 Action: Rotate partial Ford exposure into GM $GM ( ▲ 1.21% ) while Ford’s guidance drags sentiment. GM could attract the capital fleeing Ford’s “fire drama,” setting up a relative strength trade over the next few quarters.

That’s not your Wi-Fi password. That’s America’s new debt level — $38 trillion.

Yep, the U.S. just hit another debt milestone, adding $1 trillion in just two months. That’s the fastest trillion ever added outside of the pandemic years. Basically, the national debt is growing like a college kid’s credit card bill — minus the hangover of responsibility.

The U.S. has now been hit with three credit rating downgrades. The global finance hall monitor thinks America’s spending habits are “a bit much.”

Michael Peterson (CEO of the Peterson Foundation, aka the adult in the room) didn’t hold back:

To make it worse, the U.S. now has:

Nobody wants to touch the big sacred cows:

And because interest rates are high, debt interest payments are now the third-largest monthly bill for the government — right behind Social Security and defense.

So the U.S. is basically paying Visa, Mastercard, and AmEx… just to keep the lights on.

Investors are quietly side-eyeing all this:

The world’s richest country is running it like a startup that just discovered venture debt.

Yep — the U.S. government is currently closed for business in what’s now the second-longest shutdown ever. The fight? Whether to keep extending tax credits or cut back on spending.

Here’s the punchline:
It doesn’t matter who’s in power — the spending keeps going brrr.

Unless Congress finds a way to either:

…this fiscal rollercoaster’s only going one way.

The U.S. isn’t broke yet… but it’s definitely acting like it’s allergic to saving.

1. Ride the Gold Wave
When governments start printing debt like memes, investors flock to hard assets. Gold’s already flexing this year as a safe haven against Uncle Sam’s IOU addiction.
📌 Action: Accumulate exposure through gold ETFs like $GLD ( ▲ 12.3% YTD ) or physical bullion ETFs like $IAU. Use dips to scale in — high debt + fiscal chaos = long-term tailwind for gold.

2. Collect Those Treasury Coupons
With U.S. debt ballooning and yields staying juicy, short-to-mid duration Treasuries are paying like dividend stocks. Even better — if the economy slows, those yields could drop, boosting bond prices.
📌 Action: Buy Treasury ETFs like $SHY (1–3 yr) or $IEF (7–10 yr). You’re locking in solid yields and a potential price bump if rates fall later.

3. Own the Dollar Hedges
A weakening dollar is the side effect of debt overload. That helps assets denominated in other currencies — and global stocks with strong local markets.
📌 Action: Diversify into international ETFs like $VXUS or $VEA to gain exposure to non-USD assets. Bonus: you’re hedging your portfolio against America’s “print now, worry later” strategy.