When Will Bitcoin Be Back Above $100k? 🤔

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Bitcoin just pulled a full “main character loses confidence in Act 2” arc.

After flirting with $100K, BTC is now back under $70,000 — and the mood shifted fast.

On January 14, Bitcoin hit $97,939.

Since then?

📉 -31.5% from the peak
📉 -23.3% year-to-date

That’s a hard momentum reset.

The last time Bitcoin traded above six figures was November 13.

Now prediction market Kalshi is cooling expectations.

Here’s what traders are pricing:

Traders think $100K isn’t “imminent.” But a whole bunch think it’s “eventually.”

Sentiment flipped.

When Bitcoin drifts far from big round numbers, momentum traders step back and volatility picks up. That’s where we are.

Prediction markets aren’t prophecy — they reflect positioning. And right now, the crowd wants more proof.

Liquidity. ETF flows. Macro tailwinds. Something.

Until then?

The road back to $100K just got longer.

If you trust the process, it could be the time to get a bitcoin miner while it’s not as cool.

Crypto doesn’t move in straight lines. And neither does conviction.

Anthropic is building a cloud money cannon.

And the people standing under it?
Amazon
Alphabet
Microsoft

Anthropic expects to pay at least $80 BILLION through 2029 just to run Claude on their cloud servers.

That’s not profit share.

That’s just… electricity and server rent.

But wait. It gets juicier.

Because the cloud giants don’t just charge rent.

They take a cut of sales too.

If a customer buys Anthropic’s AI through a cloud platform?

The cloud provider gets a slice.

And this slice is growing FAST.

Here’s how it’s scaling:

That’s not a typo. From pocket change… to billions… in 3 years.

At peak projections, these payouts equal ~10% of Anthropic’s total revenue.

That’s meaningful.

That’s “this better be worth it” money.

Because cloud providers become your sales army.

Example:

Microsoft reportedly lets Azure sales reps count Anthropic model sales toward their quota — just like Microsoft software or even OpenAI models.

Sales rep sees quota.
Sales rep sees commission.
Sales rep pushes Claude.

That’s distribution leverage.

Some spicy numbers from the report:

Yes. Total revenue.

Not profit.

Total.

And OpenAI is expected to pay over $13B in revenue share in 2026–2027 alone.

AI is expensive. But distribution is more expensive.

Cloud providers make money from Anthropic in multiple ways:

Anthropic relies on:

So even when Anthropic sells AI directly to customers (first-party sales), it still mostly runs on AWS.

The house always wins.

Anthropic says working with all three cloud giants gives it an edge.

Why?

Because each cloud provider can push its models to their enterprise clients.

Meanwhile, OpenAI leans heavily on Microsoft distribution.

Different strategy.

Same outcome:

Cloud providers skim the toll.

Anthropic forecasts up to $18B revenue in 2026.

That’s monster growth.

But here’s the twist:

Most of that revenue (as of last summer) came from direct sales, not cloud resales.

Which means:

The cloud share slice could get even bigger
—or get renegotiated.

Everything in AI is still fluid.

Except the cloud bill.

That’s very real.

If you own:

You don’t even need to pick the AI winner.

You own the toll booth.

AI startups burn billions training models.

Cloud providers collect the meter fees.

It’s like selling shovels during a gold rush…
except the shovels cost $100B.

Anthropic may build the brains… But Amazon, Microsoft, and Alphabet own the land, the power grid, and the checkout counter. They get Cloud rent (compute). Training spend, revenue share (20–50% in some cases). This is picks-and-shovels investing — without having to guess which AI model wins.

📌 Action: Gradually accumulate $AMZN ( ▲ 1.81% ), $MSFT ( ▲ 0.69% ), or $GOOGL ( ▲ 0.43% ) on pullbacks. Focus on cloud growth trends in earnings (AWS, Azure, GCP). Treat AI demand as a multi-year infrastructure cycle, not a hype trade.

Anthropic expects up to $100B in training costs through 2029. That money doesn’t disappear. It flows to Nvidia GPUs, Custom silicon (Trainium, TPUs), Data center buildout. Even if model margins compress, chip demand stays structural.

📌 Action: Allocate exposure to $NVDA ( ▲ 1.63% ) and monitor hyperscaler capex guidance each quarter. Rising capex = confirmation the AI buildout is still accelerating. If capex slows materially, reassess position sizing.

Anthropic and OpenAI both share revenue with cloud partners. AI companies need distribution. Cloud giants control enterprise pipelines. Sales reps are incentivised to push these models. That’s sticky.

📌 Action: When analysing AI stocks, overweight companies with embedded enterprise distribution (cloud platforms, enterprise software ecosystems) over standalone AI startups. Lean toward integrated ecosystems $MSFT ( ▲ 0.69% ) $AMZN ( ▲ 1.81% ) $GOOGL ( ▲ 0.43% ) rather than pure-model speculation.

Gold just pulled a classic.

Two red days.
Twitter doom.
Then bam — dip buyers showed up like it’s Black Friday at Costco.

Gold futures bounced 2.1% to $4,986/oz.
Silver ripped 5.5% to $77.50/oz.

Not bad for metals that were “dead” 48 hours ago.

Still — let’s zoom out.

We’re well below this year’s record settlements:
• Gold: $5,318/oz
• Silver: $115/oz

Peace talks between Russia and Ukraine lasted… two hours.

That’s shorter than most Netflix movies.

Ukraine’s President called the talks “difficult” and accused Russia of stalling.

In other words: no breakthrough. Then things escalated elsewhere.

Iran said nuclear talks were “constructive.” The U.S. said… not so fast.

Vice President Vance made it clear Iran hasn’t met U.S. red lines.
And President Trump is keeping “all options” on the table.

Axios dropped a spicy headline saying the U.S. could be closer to a major Middle East war than most Americans realise.

Cool. Cool cool cool.

Oh — and Iran + Russia are doing naval drills in the Sea of Oman.
Right after Iran ran exercises in the Strait of Hormuz.

You know. The chokepoint for global oil.

If geopolitics were a stock, it’d be trading at ATH anxiety levels.

Good question.

According to Marex analyst Edward Meir, we’re stuck in a tight trading range.

Lots of tension. Not enough conviction.

Gold isn’t screaming “crisis.” It’s whispering “maybe.”

After markets closed, the Federal Reserve dropped the minutes from its January meeting.

The vibe? Not in a hurry to cut rates.

Most officials want to see more inflation progress before easing.

A couple wanted a cut.
Some wanted neutral language.
But overall? Patience.

And higher-for-longer rates are like gravity for gold.
Because gold doesn’t yield anything.

When cash yields 3.5–3.75%, investors think twice before parking money in shiny rocks.

Asian trading has been thin because of Lunar New Year.

Less liquidity = softer price action.

BMO analysts think that creates a “soft patch” window for bargain buyers.

In other words: If you believe the macro chaos sticks around, this dip might look tasty.

If you think tensions cool and rates stay high? Maybe not.

Gold and silver aren’t exploding higher because markets are still playing “wait and see.”

• Will geopolitics actually escalate?
• Will inflation cool enough for rate cuts?
• Will the Fed blink first?

Until one of those breaks decisively, we’re range-bound.

Nervous. But not panicking.