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In today’s post:
Who Blinks First? 👀
Tesla's $8B Problem 🚗
The Selloff Is Already Over? 📈
$1B Money Manager's Biggest AI Bet of 2026?
Louis Navellier called Nvidia at split-adjusted $4. He's calling this one now. An AI breakthrough he says could make ChatGPT obsolete — and trigger a 70X investment boom in the process. He's presenting the name and ticker symbol live. Watch free.
Who Blinks First? 👀
Washington has gone full blockade mode on Iranian maritime oil shipments. We're talking a hard pivot from "partial sanctions relaxation" to "you're not moving anything through there."
The Hormuz blockade kicked in Monday morning.
So what's the play here?
TS Lombard's base case: the pressure gets painful enough on both sides that someone blinks by end of May.
Their analyst Christopher Granville thinks the most likely off-ramp isn't a military win for either side. It's a face-saving economic compromise around the strait itself. Essentially, everyone agrees to share the till and stop pointing guns at each other.
Neat in theory. Messy in practice.
Here's where it gets complicated:
The blockade could escalate fast before Iran even flinches
Global energy consumers might feel the pain before Iran does
The uranium enrichment dispute is still sitting in the corner, completely unresolved
In other words: the pressure tactic could work perfectly, or it could blow up in everyone's faces before the end of a single earnings cycle.
High stakes poker, except the chips are barrels of oil and the table is the global economy.
TL;DR
The US has moved from partial sanctions to a full maritime blockade on Iranian oil exports
The Hormuz Strait blockade took effect Monday morning
TS Lombard's base case: a face-saving compromise deal by end of May
The likely outcome isn't military victory but a shared economic arrangement around the strait
Key risks: escalation spiral, consumers hurt before Iran buckles, uranium talks still deadlocked
This is the most aggressive lever Washington has pulled yet — and it's a double-edged one
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Tesla's $8B Problem 🚗
Tesla is closing in on 10 billion FSD (Full self-driving) miles.
That's not autonomy. But it's a very large number on the scoreboard.
FSD still requires a human with hands near the wheel and eyes on the road. It's driver-assistance, not a self-driving car. The milestone is symbolic, but symbols matter when you're selling a $600B valuation.
Morgan Stanley's Andrew Percoco put it plainly: the 10B miles reinforces Tesla's lead in autonomy. It doesn't justify the stock price on its own.
$TSLA ( ▲ 0.99% ) stock hasn’t exactly been running hot this year….
Here's the problem.
Capex is doubling. Free cash flow is turning negative. Morgan Stanley estimates $20.7B in capex for 2026, roughly in line with Tesla's own guidance of "exceeding $20B."
But that number doesn't even include Terafab or Tesla Solar yet.
Plug those in, and capex balloons to $25–30B. That flips the FCF burn to an estimated $8.4B in the red for the year. Not exactly the vibe you want heading into an earnings call.
The Austin robotaxi operation? Still small-scale. Moving toward less supervised driving, but nowhere near a full commercial rollout. CyberCab initial production is reportedly kicking off this month, so that's something.
Q1 earnings drop April 22, after the bell. The call will be the real event. Investors want dates, rollout plans, and a credible path to unsupervised autonomy.
Until then, $TSLA ( ▲ 0.99% ) is down over 21% year-to-date and asking you to trust the vision.
TL;DR
Tesla is approaching 10 billion FSD miles, but FSD still requires driver supervision
Morgan Stanley says the milestone reinforces Tesla's autonomy lead, but isn't enough to support the valuation alone
Capex is estimated at $20.7B in 2026, with potential upside to $25–30B if Terafab and Solar are included
FCF could swing to an $8.4B burn this year if full capex is deployed
Austin robotaxi activity remains small-scale; CyberCab production begins this month
Q1 earnings on April 22 — the conference call is where investors need answers on the autonomy timeline
1. Buy the Dip on Tesla's Autonomy Play
Tesla is down 21% YTD and the market is pricing in maximum uncertainty. If the April 22 earnings call delivers a credible robotaxi timeline, the snapback could be sharp.
📌 Action: Accumulate a small position in $TSLA ( ▲ 0.99% ) ( before April 22 ) ahead of the earnings catalyst. Set a tight stop below recent lows. The risk/reward window is open right now.
2. Ride the EV Infrastructure Wave
Tesla's $25–30B capex splurge isn't just a Tesla story. That capital flows into suppliers, charging infrastructure, and semiconductor plays that power the whole ecosystem.
📌 Action: Look at EV supply chain ETFs like $DRIV ( ▲ 1.98% ) or $IDRV ( ▲ 1.18% ) as a diversified way to benefit from Tesla's buildout without the single-stock volatility.
3. Watch the Autonomy Ripple Effect
If Tesla's April 22 call confirms a real CyberCab rollout, it lifts the entire autonomous vehicle sector. Competitors and enablers move together on big autonomy news.
📌 Action: Keep $MBLVT ( 0.0% ) or WAYMO adjacent plays on your watchlist. A strong Tesla autonomy update could be the tide that raises all boats.
The Selloff Is Already Over? 📈
Morgan Stanley thinks the worst might already be priced in.
And honestly? The data backs it up.
The S&P 500's forward P/E ratio has dropped ~18% from its October peak. That's the kind of move you'd normally associate with a full-blown recession or an aggressive Fed. Neither of those is Morgan Stanley's base case right now.
It gets more interesting under the hood.
Over half of stocks in the Russell 3000 have already fallen 20% or more. So while the headlines make it sound like carnage is coming, the market has quietly been bleeding out for months. Most of the damage? Already done.
On AI, the bank is calling out the hype gap.
The disruption narrative is running miles ahead of actual adoption. Enterprise AI is still early-stage — and in the near term, it's more likely to boost margins than destroy them, especially for companies already using it. That's showing up in earnings: median EPS growth is running at its fastest pace since 2021.
The caveat? The last leg is never pretty.
Morgan Stanley flagged that a final retest is still possible, particularly if rates spike or bond volatility flares up again. So don't throw the champagne in the bin just yet.
But the bigger picture? Markets tend to price in bad news before the bad news officially arrives. A lot of the fear around geopolitics, private credit, and AI disruption may already be baked in.
In simple words? Panic selling at this stage might mean selling the bottom.
TL;DR
The S&P 500's forward P/E has already dropped ~18% from peak, a recession-level move without an actual recession
50%+ of Russell 3000 stocks are down 20%+ — significant risk has already been priced in
AI is still early in enterprise adoption and is more likely to support margins than hurt them near-term
Median EPS growth is at its fastest pace since 2021
A final market retest is still possible if rates or bond volatility spike
Morgan Stanley's read: much of the repricing is already behind us — stay forward-looking
1. Buy the Dip Before the Recovery
Over half of Russell 3000 stocks are down 20%+. Morgan Stanley says the repricing is largely done. That's not a warning. That gives you a shopping list.
📌 Action: Accumulate broad market exposure via $IWV ( ▲ 1.09% ) or $VTI ( ▲ 1.08% ) while sentiment is still bearish. Dollar-cost average over the next 2–4 weeks rather than going all-in.
2. Ride the AI Margin Trade
AI isn't killing margins — it's boosting them for early adopters. Median EPS growth is the fastest since 2021. The narrative is scary. The numbers aren't.
📌 Action: Add to high-quality AI-adjacent names already showing EPS strength — think $MSFT ( ▲ 3.64% ), $META ( ▲ 0.74% ), $GOOGL ( ▲ 1.28% ). Focus on companies using AI to cut costs, not just build it.
3. Front-Run the Forward Earnings Story
The market is discounting future risk before the headlines confirm it's over. That's historically when forward-looking investors make their best entries.
📌 Action: Rotate into quality growth ETFs like $QQQM ( ▲ 1.02% ) or $SCHG ( ▲ 1.44% ) now, before sentiment flips positive and FOMO pushes prices back up.