Who's Lying About Hormuz? 🤥

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Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi took to X Friday to declare the Strait of Hormuz "completely open" for all commercial vessels… for the duration of the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon.

Big if true.

The announcement follows a 10-day ceasefire deal brokered in Washington, and hints at a broader thaw between the U.S. and Iran. Tehran had previously framed the Israeli strikes in Lebanon as a breach of its own pause with America.

Markets bought it immediately. Stock futures jumped. Oil prices tanked.

There's just one problem: the ships aren't moving.

Commodities data firm Kpler looked at the strait after Iran's announcement and said it "remains effectively closed."

Most shipping organisations still classify it as too dangerous. The reason? Mines. Not the metaphorical kind.

Iran's military also said it would block any vessel it hasn't personally greenlit. That doesn't exactly scream "open for business."

And even if Tehran follows through on a genuine reopening, Kpler estimates only ~25% of Middle East Gulf export capacity would come back online within one to two months.

So we've got an announcement of an open strait, a closed strait, and oil prices already pricing in the hopeful version. Classic markets.

1. Buy the Oil Dip
Markets already priced in a full Hormuz reopening. Kpler says that's not happening anytime soon. When reality catches up, oil bounces back.

📌 Action: Pick up shares in oil majors like $XOM ( ▼ 3.65% ) or $CVX ( ▼ 2.21% ) on any further dips driven by ceasefire optimism. Hold for the snapback when shipping delays hit supply data.

2. Ride the Defence Spend Wave
A Middle East ceasefire that nobody fully trusts means governments aren't standing down. Defence budgets stay elevated. Contracts keep flowing.

📌 Action: Add to or initiate a position in $LMT ( ▼ 2.52% ), $RTX ( ▲ 0.29% ), or the defence ETF $ITA ( ▲ 1.27% ). Geopolitical instability is a long-term tailwind here.

3. Bet on the Shipping Backlog
25% capacity resuming in 1–2 months means rerouting chaos continues. Longer routes = higher freight rates = more revenue for tanker operators.

📌 Action: Look at tanker stocks like $INSW ( ▲ 1.11% ) or $TK ( ▲ 2.69% ) which benefit directly from elevated shipping rates during supply disruptions.

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PayPal's stock popped 2.5% on Friday. Activist investor speculation might be the reason why.

Analyst Don Bilson at Gordon Hackett flagged that SG Americas, Societe Generale's broker-dealer, looks like it could be quietly setting itself up as a go-to swap broker for activist investors — based on a fresh look at SG's 13F filing.

So who's in the crosshairs?

PayPal $PYPL ( ▲ 2.01% ) is top of the list. The payments giant swapped out its CEO in February after a rough earnings print, and there were already whispers that potential acquirers had been sniffing around. In other words: the board is under pressure, the stock has underperformed, and activists smell blood.

Other names flagged from the filing:

Nothing confirmed yet. But when SG starts building swap positions in beaten-down names right after a leadership shakeup, people pay attention.

A massive geopolitical shift may be underway.

Trump told Bloomberg Friday that Iran has agreed to suspend its nuclear program indefinitely and won't be getting any of its frozen U.S. funds back as part of a potential peace deal.

His words, not ours: "No years, unlimited."

Trump says the deal is mostly cooked. Talks to finalise everything will "probably" happen this weekend, with the president adding: "Most of the main points are finalised. It'll go pretty quickly."

Iran hasn't officially confirmed the nuclear concession yet. But they did confirm one thing that matters to oil markets: the Strait of Hormuz is now "completely open" for all commercial vessels for the duration of the ceasefire.

That's roughly 20% of the world's oil supply allegedly flowing freely again. Worth noting.

On the delegation front, Trump is weighing up sending JD Vance, Jared Kushner, and envoy Steve Witkoff to the next round of talks, expected in Islamabad on Sunday. Pakistan is mediating. Egypt and Turkey are backing it up.

Earlier Friday, reports surfaced that the working framework involved $20B in frozen Iranian funds being released in exchange for Iran handing over its enriched uranium stockpile. Trump has since walked that back, saying Iran gets no frozen funds at all.

So either the deal got better for the U.S. overnight, or the details are still very much in flux.

Either way, the weekend's going to be interesting.