In today’s post:
This Crash Will Make Millionaires💰
Amazon’s $200B Gamble 🎲
Bitcoin Will be Worth $0?! 😨

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THIS CRASH WILL MAKE MILLIONAIRES 💰
Wall Street just crowned a new main character for 2026.
And it’s not the shiny AI kid everyone’s been fawning over.
It’s Apple.
Apple’s glow-up era?
Dan Ives is planting his flag early: 2026 is Apple’s breakout year.
On CNBC, he tossed out a spicy number — AI could add $75–$100 per share to Apple’s valuation.
Not market cap.
Not revenue.
Per. Share.
And no, he’s not sweating European regulators. He sees Apple playing offense — quietly embedding AI where it already owns your attention, your wallet, and your soul.
He even compared it to Alphabet’s monster run last year.
You know.
The one everyone wishes they bought earlier.
The great rotation (aka: sell winners, buy the ignored kids)
Jeff Kilburg says investors are doing the classic Wall Street cha-cha:
Selling last year’s darlings $NVDA ( ▲ 7.87% ) $META ( ▼ 1.31% )
Rotating into laggards $AAPL ( ▲ 0.8% ) $GOOG ( ▼ 2.48% )

Especially during April’s tariff-driven panic sell.
Same movie.
Different year.
Same retail investors watching it after the good part.
Why Kilburg is “giddy” about Google
Kilburg didn’t just hype Alphabet. He fanboyed.
Alphabet just crossed $400B in annual revenue for the first time. Casual flex.
But the real juice?
Google’s Gemini now processes 10B tokens per minute
Serving costs are down 78% year-over-year
That’s operating leverage on steroids.
His verdict?
“I get giddy about Google… the tip of the spear moving forward.”
Wall Street analysts don’t say “giddy” unless something very real is happening.
It’s the same scale-then-optimise playbook that keeps popping up in tech history — the kind that made The Innovator’s Dilemma a permanent fixture on investors’ desks for years. If you want to give it a read, it’s here.
Software apocalypse = shopping season
Dan Ives called the recent selloff a “software apocalypse.”

AKA everyone panicked at once and sold everything with a logo.
His response?
Good.
He says this is a “table-pounder” moment… the kind you look back on and wish you bought more. And I strongly agree with that sentiment.
Names he’s circling like a bargain hunter on Black Friday:
Salesforce
CrowdStrike
Microsoft
Oracle
ServiceNow
Massive selloffs.
Solid businesses.
Same story every cycle.
Crypto’s gut check (and one falling knife)
Crypto didn’t escape the carnage.
Kilburg called MicroStrategy a “falling knife” after it dropped 72% from all-time highs.
Ouch.

His take? When markets get stressed, crypto doesn’t just react — it overreacts.
It becomes a mood ring for global macro panic.
Still… that doesn’t mean the long-term story is dead but I’ll be staying away from $MSTR ( ▲ 26.12% )
Panic ≠ paradigm shift
Both analysts agree on one thing:
This isn’t the end.
It’s digestion.
Ives calls it a “digestion period”, not a structural breakdown.
The market ate too much hype too fast… now it’s walking it off a little.
And while everyone else is staring at red candles, these guys are quietly loading shopping carts.
TL;DR
Apple could add $75–$100 per share from AI, according to Dan Ives
Investors are rotating out of NVDA/META and into AAPL/GOOGL
Alphabet hit $400B revenue and slashed AI serving costs 78% YoY
The tech selloff is being framed as a buying opportunity, not a warning sign
Crypto’s shaky, MicroStrategy is down 72%, but long-term optimism remains
This looks less like “the end” and more like markets catching their breath
Sometimes the best trades don’t feel good.
They feel boring.
Or scary.
Or obvious in hindsight.
Welcome to that moment.

1. Buy the Rotation, Not the Hype
Money is rotating out of last year’s winners and into names that lagged but still print cash. This article screams institutional rebalancing, not fear.
📌 Action: Gradually build positions in $AAPL ( ▲ 0.8% ) and $GOOG ( ▼ 2.48% ) on red days. Use staggered buys over weeks, not one lump sum. When big funds rotate, they don’t rush — they accumulate quietly.
2. Accumulate Oversold Software Leaders
The “software apocalypse” hit everything indiscriminately — good businesses got sold with bad ones. That’s where the edge is.
📌 Action: Start long-term positions in oversold software leaders like $MSFT ( ▲ 1.9% ) (which we did a deep dive on in todays premium newsletter which you can read here), $CRM ( ▲ 0.73% ), or $NOW ( ▼ 1.84% ). Buy partial positions now, add if volatility continues. Think months, not days.
3. Use AI Efficiency as a Signal
AI isn’t just hype anymore — it’s cutting real costs. Alphabet processing 10B tokens per minute while slashing serving costs 78% YoY is an operating leverage story.
📌 Action: Treat AI efficiency leaders like $GOOG ( ▼ 2.48% ) as core holdings, not trades. Hold through noise. When costs fall faster than revenue grows, margins do the heavy lifting

AMAZON’S $200B GAMBLE 🎲
Q4 is Amazon’s Super Bowl. Black Friday, Cyber Monday, last-minute panic buying — the works.
And the top-line? Solid.
North America revenue: $127.1B (+10% YoY)
International revenue: $50.7B (+17% YoY)
Total revenue: $213.4B (+14% YoY)
Consensus: $211.5B
That’s a beat. Not a blowout… but a beat.
Think: winning the game, not storming the field.
AWS Keeps Printing
Amazon Web Services once again showed up like the responsible adult in the room.
AWS revenue: $35.6B (+24% YoY)
Consensus: $34.9B
That’s real growth at real scale.
Meanwhile:
Online stores: $83.0B vs. $82.3B expected
Third-party seller services: $52.8B (+10% YoY)
Amazon’s ecosystem is humming. Sellers sell, Amazon takes a cut, everyone keeps paying AWS.
Profits? Surprisingly Juicy
Operating income came in hot:
Total operating income: $25.0B
Consensus: $24.8B
Guidance range: $21.0B–$26.0B

Breakdown:
North America: $11.5B
International: $1.0B
AWS: $12.5B
AWS is still doing the heavy lifting — like a gym bro carrying the entire moving van.
Then… The Cash Flow Plot Twist
Here’s where the vibes shifted.
Trailing twelve-month free cash flow: $11.2B
Last year: $38.2B
That’s a big drop.
Why? Amazon went full send on spending:
$50.7B increase in property & equipment purchases
Mostly for AI infrastructure
Basically: Amazon didn’t lose money — it reinvested it aggressively.
This wasn’t a cash problem.
It was a “we’re building the future, deal with it” problem.
Andy Jassy Basically Said: “Hold My CapEx”
CEO Andy Jassy didn’t exactly calm investors down:
Amazon expects to invest about $200 billion in capital expenditures across the company in 2026.

AI. Chips. Robotics. Satellites.
Amazon is trying to build Skynet… but with Prime delivery.
The bet? Strong long-term return on invested capital.
The cost? Investors’ short-term patience.
This is peak Amazon: misunderstood early, dominant later — straight out of The Everything Store.
Guidance: Good, But Not Good Enough
Looking ahead to Q1:
Revenue guidance: $173.5B–$178.5B
Midpoint: $176.5B
Consensus: $175.5B
Revenue = fine.
But profits?
Operating income guidance: $16.5B–$21.5B
Midpoint: $19.0B
Consensus: $22.2B
Oof.
And yes… Amazon reiterated $200B in capex.
After-hours: −8.8%
Regular session: −4.4%
Wall Street saw massive spending, softer profit guidance, and said:
“Cool story. We’re out.”
TL;DR
Amazon beat revenue expectations across the board
AWS growth stayed strong at +24% YoY
Operating income topped estimates
Free cash flow dropped hard due to massive AI investment
Management plans $200B in capex, and the market hates it
Stock sold off nearly 9% after hours

1. Follow the AI Infrastructure Wave
Amazon isn’t “cutting margins” — it’s building the rails. They’re dropping $200B in capex on AI, chips, robotics, and data centers. That spend doesn’t live in a vacuum. It leaks into the entire AI supply chain.
📌 Action: Accumulate AI infrastructure exposure via semis + data-center enablers (think GPUs, networking, power). Use broad ETFs if you want diversification, or scale in during tech pullbacks caused by capex fear headlines. When hyperscalers spend this aggressively, suppliers eat first — and eat well.
2. Buy Quality on Capex Panic
The market just threw a tantrum because free cash flow dipped and guidance softened. But revenue beat, AWS grew 24% YoY, and operating income topped expectations. This wasn’t a demand problem — it was a spending one.
📌 Action: Scale into $AMZN ( ▼ 5.56% ) gradually on selloffs tied to capex headlines. Use limit orders and patience — not all-in hero buys. Markets hate spending today for profits tomorrow. Long-term investors get paid for tolerating that discomfort.
3. Rotate Toward Cash-Flow Winners
Amazon reminded everyone of a brutal truth: AI leaders ≠ free cash flow machines (yet). Some companies benefit from AI without torching cash on infrastructure.
📌 Action: Balance AI-heavy names with businesses that generate strong free cash flow right now. Rebalance quarterly. Let Amazon-style builders coexist with cash cows in your portfolio. You reduce volatility while still staying exposed to the AI megatrend — best of both worlds.

BITCOIN WILL BE WORTH $0?! 😨
Bitcoin to zero. Not “down a bit.” Not “crypto winter.”
Zero. As in… unplug the chart.
That’s the call from Richard Farr, chief market strategist at Pivotus Partners. And no, he says it’s not clickbait.
“Our BTC price target is 0.0. That’s not shock value. That’s math.”
Ouch.
His core argument? Bitcoin hasn’t behaved like a hedge. It hasn’t behaved like money.
It’s behaved like a leveraged tech stock wearing a trench coat.

Bitcoin ≠ digital gold
More like Nasdaq with extra steps
Farr says Bitcoin has failed the one job crypto fans keep advertising:
• Hedge against the dollar
• Hedge against debasement
• Hedge against chaos
Instead, BTC has moved in sync with risk assets, tracking tech stocks like it’s on the S&P’s payroll.
In his words: “a speculative instrument correlated to the Nasdaq.”
When markets panic, Bitcoin doesn’t protect you.
It panics with you.
Institutional adoption? Farr says “lol, no”
One of Farr’s sharper shots:
“No serious central bank will ever own something where Michael Saylor controls the float.”

The concern isn’t just ideology — it’s concentration risk.
When one corporate figure (👋 Michael Saylor) holds an enormous chunk of supply through Strategy $MSTR ( ▲ 26.12% ), decentralization starts looking… theoretical.
Hard sell to central banks.
Harder sell to conservative institutions.
Impossible sell to regulators.
Mining economics: the treadmill from hell
Farr also goes after Bitcoin’s plumbing.
• Miners bleeding cash
• Network slow and inefficient
• Energy usage off the charts
His verdict?
Bitcoin is a terrible transaction processor and an expensive one to maintain.
You don’t need ideology to see the issue.
You just need a calculator and an electricity bill.

Enter: the “death spiral” crowd
Farr isn’t alone.
Michael Burry, yes that Burry, has been waving a big red flag too.
His warning: a self-reinforcing Bitcoin death spiral.
We took a closer look at Michael Burry’s theory in yesterday’s newsletter which you can read here if you missed it.
The hedge myth officially on life support
Burry doesn’t mince words.
Bitcoin, down over 40% from its October peak, is now:
“Exposed as a completely speculative asset.”
Not a debasement hedge.
Not digital gold.
Not silver 2.0.
Just risk — with a ticker.
And the data backs him up.
BTC’s correlation with the S&P 500 has climbed to 0.50.
That’s not diversification.
That’s co-signing volatility.
ETFs didn’t “fix” Bitcoin — they turbocharged it
Remember when spot ETFs were supposed to legitimize crypto?
Burry says they did the opposite.
• Increased speculative flows
• Tightened links to equities
• Made BTC trade even more like a stock
Great for liquidity.
Bad for anyone selling the “safe haven” story.
The $50K line in the sand
Burry’s nightmare scenario starts at $50,000 BTC.
If that level breaks:
• Miners could go bankrupt
• Capital markets could shut for MSTR
• Tokenized metals could collapse “into a black hole”
• Corporates de-risk by dumping anything liquid
He notes that up to $1B in precious metals was already liquidated at month-end — collateral damage from crypto stress.
Everything is connected.
And leverage makes sure it spreads fast.
Zoom out: the damage is already real
In just three weeks:
• ~$1 trillion wiped off Bitcoin’s market cap
• BTC hovering around $67,300
• Confidence leaking faster than liquidity
Whether you think zero is extreme or inevitable, the direction of travel is doing all the talking.
TL;DR
• A top strategist says Bitcoin’s fair value is zero — based on math, not vibes
• BTC has traded like a tech stock, not a hedge
• Institutional adoption faces concentration and governance issues
• Mining economics are ugly and getting uglier
• Michael Burry warns of a self-reinforcing death spiral
• BTC’s correlation with stocks is now 0.50
• ETFs increased speculation instead of stability
• A drop to $50K could trigger cascading failures
• ~$1T in BTC market cap has already vanished

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